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RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

we also need to keep in mind from my count there has been 12 by elections since the 2015 election , a rather high number for this early in a governments mandate

for the conservatives 7 of those were in cpc ridings and the other 5 were in liberal seats , so they've had to defend 7 ridings , 5 of which we safe alberta/sask seats and then 2 ridings they won by small margins in 2015 and would of likely had a hard time holding in 2019 anyways
and then had to run campaigns in 5 safe liberal ridings they really had no chance of success in with ( Markham Thornhill and Scarborough Agincourt ) being the only 2 with any potential and they managed to get close to 40% of the vote in both of those


the ndp have had to campaign in 12 by elections ( difficult task for a party with little money ) but only 2 were ridings they've done well in recently ( Lac saint Jean and Ottawa Vanier ) the other 10 were all safe liberal or cpc ridings where the ndp normally does poorly in , so even though there's been a dozen by elections not many were in target ndp ridings


the liberals have had to defend 5 safe ridings , some of the safest liberal seats in the country like Ottawa Vanier and saint Laurent
and then tried to launch campaigns in 7 cpc ridings , but only 1 of those had they normally done well in ( south Surrey white rock ) , so they had nothing to lose by losing the alberta seats as they normally wouldn't do well there

the Chicoutimi by election will be the first marginal riding they have to defend , a 2015 pickup that often flips back and forth between ndp , bloc and liberals


anyways I think the conservatives have had the more difficult tasks so far , having to defend 7 ridings and campaign in 5 rather challenging ridings at the same time ( sort of like mini elections ) , where is the liberals only had to campaign in 5 safe seats and 7 cpc ridings where they had nothing to lose
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Without harping on the BC loss;

My goodness the NDP is a mess.
If the Green Party opted for a less extreme leader they could easily replace the NDP as the third party in the Commons if things don't turn around.

The LPC has zero competition for left of center votes.



this may seem bizarre but I could envision a scenario where Jagmeet Singh doesn't even get to sit in the house as ndp leader .

lets say he doesn't decide to run in a safe ndp riding before the 2019 election and then decides to run in the 905 or Brampton . that's looking like less and less of a sure thing ,when you consider the ndp got under 5% of the vote in the 2 most recent by elections in this region
and the federal ndp is currently less popular than the provincial ndp when he won his seat in Brampton

even his name recognition and being a former mpp might not be enough to guarantee a win against whats likely to be a tough race against a liberal incumbent as none of the Brampton mp's are likely to retire in 2019

what happens to the ndp if he doesn't win a seat in 2019 ? and there overall seat count goes down ? its going to be a mess


Its certainly very possible he doesn't sit in the Commons till the next election.

While I think he is an absolute slam dunk to win Brampton East in the next Federal Election, the NDP doesn't have the gift of many safe seats so that an MP could step aside to allow him to run in that seat.

There is likely a by-election in an NDP seat coming up in Outremont which the Liberals will most certainly win, so that is out

Even an MP did step aside in a "safe" seat how safe are NDP seats?
Windsor West & Skeena—Bulkley Valley are the only two seats the NDP won with more than 50% of the popular vote.

I can't see wanting to remove Nathan Cullen from caucus which leaves Windsor West, but do you want to risk that? What if Singh loses?

To your point, its not like he is getting the new leader bounce which most new leaders get. I have no idea what the approach is for the NDP.

Quebec support appears to be all but gone and they are closer to the Greens than the Liberals in Ontario in most polls.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Without harping on the BC loss;

My goodness the NDP is a mess.
If the Green Party opted for a less extreme leader they could easily replace the NDP as the third party in the Commons if things don't turn around.

The LPC has zero competition for left of center votes.



this may seem bizarre but I could envision a scenario where Jagmeet Singh doesn't even get to sit in the house as ndp leader .

lets say he doesn't decide to run in a safe ndp riding before the 2019 election and then decides to run in the 905 or Brampton . that's looking like less and less of a sure thing ,when you consider the ndp got under 5% of the vote in the 2 most recent by elections in this region
and the federal ndp is currently less popular than the provincial ndp when he won his seat in Brampton

even his name recognition and being a former mpp might not be enough to guarantee a win against whats likely to be a tough race against a liberal incumbent as none of the Brampton mp's are likely to retire in 2019

what happens to the ndp if he doesn't win a seat in 2019 ? and there overall seat count goes down ? its going to be a mess


Its certainly very possible he doesn't sit in the Commons till the next election.

While I think he is an absolute slam dunk to win Brampton East in the next Federal Election, the NDP doesn't have the gift of many safe seats so that an MP could step aside to allow him to run in that seat.

There is likely a by-election in an NDP seat coming up in Outremont which the Liberals will most certainly win, so that is out

Even an MP did step aside in a "safe" seat how safe are NDP seats?
Windsor West & Skeena—Bulkley Valley are the only two seats the NDP won with more than 50% of the popular vote.

I can't see wanting to remove Nathan Cullen from caucus which leaves Windsor West, but do you want to risk that? What if Singh loses?

To your point, its not like he is getting the new leader bounce which most new leaders get. I have no idea what the approach is for the NDP.

Quebec support appears to be all but gone and they are closer to the Greens than the Liberals in Ontario in most polls.



but if he runs before 2019 in a safe ndp riding , based on parliamentary traditions the government isn't suppose to run a candidate against a new opposition leader , it used to be referred to as an act of courtesy

the governing liberals didn't run candidates against Stockwell Day , Joe Clark and Stephen Harper , how could they turn around and say this rule doesn't apply to singh and try and deny him a seat in parliament ? after allowing other opposition leaders a free pass into parliament

so under this logic he could easily win a by election in Outremont or Windsor if there was no liberal candidate

or he could wait to run in Brampton east in 2019 but it seems to me that area will be much more of a challenge for the ndp then originally though . even Jack Layton lost the first time he ran in Toronto Danforth in 1997
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

but if he runs before 2019 in a safe ndp riding , based on parliamentary traditions the government isn't suppose to run a candidate against a new opposition leader , it used to be referred to as an act of courtesy

the governing liberals didn't run candidates against Stockwell Day , Joe Clark and Stephen Harper , how could they turn around and say this rule doesn't apply to singh and try and deny him a seat in parliament ? after allowing other opposition leaders a free pass into parliament

so under this logic he could easily win a by election in Outremont or Windsor if there was no liberal candidate

or he could wait to run in Brampton east in 2019 but it seems to me that area will be much more of a challenge for the ndp then originally though . even Jack Layton lost the first time he ran in Toronto Danforth in 1997


Again, maybe I am a pessimist.
However, how confident are you that the LPC would allow Outremont to remain NDP after Mulcair steps down?

Also historically these concessions have been made for the official opposition leader.
While I could be wrong I am not sure how often the Government hasnt run a candidate against the 3rd or 4th parties new leaders?
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:

but if he runs before 2019 in a safe ndp riding , based on parliamentary traditions the government isn't suppose to run a candidate against a new opposition leader , it used to be referred to as an act of courtesy

the governing liberals didn't run candidates against Stockwell Day , Joe Clark and Stephen Harper , how could they turn around and say this rule doesn't apply to singh and try and deny him a seat in parliament ? after allowing other opposition leaders a free pass into parliament

so under this logic he could easily win a by election in Outremont or Windsor if there was no liberal candidate

or he could wait to run in Brampton east in 2019 but it seems to me that area will be much more of a challenge for the ndp then originally though . even Jack Layton lost the first time he ran in Toronto Danforth in 1997


Again, maybe I am a pessimist.
However, how confident are you that the LPC would allow Outremont to remain NDP after Mulcair steps down?

Also historically these concessions have been made for the official opposition leader.
While I could be wrong I am not sure how often the Government hasnt run a candidate against the 3rd or 4th parties new leaders?


I don't know if there has been that many by elections held for 3rd or 4th party leaders seeking a seat in parliament , Joe Clark definitely wasn't the official opposition leader when he ran in Kings Hants so that would be one example but agree there might not be many others

but the fact they did it for Clark as recently as 2000 , it be hard to explain why they needed to deny Singh a seat in the house when they already have a large majority ( other than for politically partisan reasons ) and don't need 1 more seat


I'm sure if there is a by election in Outremont that it would be taken seriously by the liberals , was just using it an example , Singh hasn't expressed any interest in running in Quebec
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( ndp columnist Tom Parkin seems to think the ndp are short on cash and that's why they didn't run serious campaigns or at least low budget campaigns in the 4 recent by elections )


PARKIN: Byelection results a fundraising warning for NDP

Tom Parkin
Tom Parkin



Published:
December 14, 2017


Updated:
December 14, 2017 5:57 AM EST


Filed Under:

Toronto SUN ›
Opinion ›
Columnists ›

Jagmeet Singh celebrates with supporters after winning the first ballot in the NDP leadership race to be elected the leader of the federal New Democrats in Toronto on Sunday, October 1, 2017.Chris Young / THE CANADIAN PRESS



None of the four Monday byelections held any hope of a win for the NDP and new leader Jagmeet Singh.

But the results say something important to the NDP: get money, quick.

Three of the four seats were bastions. In 2015, the Liberals took 80% of the vote in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. Scarborough-Agincourt is so hard-core Liberal even former leader Michael Ignatieff won it during his 2011 wipeout. And Kindersley-Lloydminster is safe Conservative terrain where they took over 60% of the vote in 2015.

Only the Metro Vancouver seat of South Surrey-White Rock was a competition. In 2015 the Conservatives took it with 44% support while the Liberals came 1,500 votes behind at 42%.

In South Surrey-White Rock, the Liberals had a well-known candidate — a former Minister in the Christy Clark government and Mayor of White Rock — ample resources and Trudeau’s star power (and socks!).

Those forces were arrayed against the ever-drab Andrew Scheer and a less well-know Conservative candidate who was nominated late. In a wealthier-than-average riding of Vancouver homeowners, it’s no shock the Conservatives were unable to stir up anger against the Liberals.

The Liberals closed the gap in a low turn-out race about nothing. In South Surrey-White Rock, there was no possible win for the NDP, which won just 10% support in 2015.

Nor are the results a read on Singh’s demographic appeal.

Singh’s tour continues to draw crowds from younger and more ethnically diverse communities. But for Vancouver, South Surrey-West Rock is unusually non-diverse — 80% trace their ancestry to Europe, only 7% to China and just 6% to India or another South Asian country.

It’s not Singh’s game-changer terrain.

However, none of this means there shouldn’t be big warning lights flashing in NDP headquarters — and at caucus. And they should be flashing big, green dollar signs.

Elections Canada reports show NDP donations dried up during Tom Mulcair’s two years as placeholder leader. So, short on cash and with no possible win, the NDP ran low-budget campaigns to preserve cash.

But a party that aspires to form a federal government — to go from 44 seats to more than 170 — needs well-funded campaigns everywhere. Opting out of by-elections because of empty pockets doesn’t inspire. It stalls momentum, or worse.

The New Democrats can side-step concerns this time. But the grace period is over.

On Dec. 1, Liberal Denis Lemieux resigned as MP for Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, which he took in a 2015 four-way fight. And Tom Mulcair is expected to resign soon, opening the Montreal seat of Outremont.

All parties, including the Bloc Quebecois, have something to prove in these Quebec by-elections. A critical narrative will be set.

The timing of by-elections is up to Prime Minister Trudeau. This will come perhaps as early as February. And no doubt Trudeau will again campaign with the help of government resources. That’s two strikes against the NDP.

But the real crisis would be if donors don’t step up to the plate. In politics, you can have the greatest platform and candidate. But if you have no money, you have no campaign. Your great platform and candidate will lose.

In his leadership campaign, Singh showed impressive fundraising potential. That potential needs to become real. Right now.

Tom Parkin is a former NDP staffer and social democrat media commentator.

http://torontosun.com/opinion/.....ng-for-ndp
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