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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Poll for anyone interested;
http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....vember.pdf

While it has the Tories ahead it still has the LPC ahead on seat count. (148 Vs 164)

Its promising that the Tories are in the 30s on Atlantic Canada;
Its also nice to see a lead that goes Ontario all the way West (All be it the lead in Ontario is 1).

The concern I have is the NDP numbers;
I don't believe they are 30 points behind the CPC in BC and I am not sure if I buy the NDP @ 15 in Ontario.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The Poll for anyone interested;
http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....vember.pdf

While it has the Tories ahead it still has the LPC ahead on seat count. (148 Vs 164)

Its promising that the Tories are in the 30s on Atlantic Canada;
Its also nice to see a lead that goes Ontario all the way West (All be it the lead in Ontario is 1).

The concern I have is the NDP numbers;
I don't believe they are 30 points behind the CPC in BC and I am not sure if I buy the NDP @ 15 in Ontario.



the poll does have some odd numbers , has the cpc at 74 % in man/sask , no doubt there leading but that seemed high .

but in general there numbers are in line with other polls , liberals leading in atlantic Canada and Quebec . cpc leading in alberta and western Canada , with Ontario close to tied

they also show the ndp fighting with the greens in some regions for 3rd place , have the greens slightly ahead of the ndp in atlantic Canada and in BC have them both at 12 % . an election at this time would be a nightmare for the ndp as there not doing good anywhere and have no regional strength even in places they hold seats

but 15 % in Ontario seems reasonable as the federally ndp have been polling less than provincial ndp which I believe is in mid 20% , so that would seem reasonable to me ,
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone who following the Nanos Weekly tracker has seen their rolling methodology, basically my understanding is the numbers are based on a four week rolling average of 1000 respondents (or 250 per week over that four week period)

Generally speaking it takes a while to reflect the current feeling as you have information from four weeks prior still being factored in.

This weeks was a bit of a head scratcher for me;
http://www.nanosresearch.com/t.....%20Eng.pdf

The week prior the LPC had a 10.2% lead over the CPC;
This week its reduced to 3.2%

If I am understanding the methodology correctly all that changed was the 250 sample from the week prior to December 15, 2017 dropped off but an addition of 250 new samples to the pool dropping the lead 7% seems massive?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The merit of these rolling polls is that they are more current than the normal polls. This works fairly well if the 250 participants are selected daily, but if they are selected a week apart it loses the point. It amounts to a series of weekly, separate polls with a sample size of 250 -- it will have a huge margin of error. so big as to be practically meaningless.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
The merit of these rolling polls is that they are more current than the normal polls. This works fairly well if the 250 participants are selected daily, but if they are selected a week apart it loses the point. It amounts to a series of weekly, separate polls with a sample size of 250 -- it will have a huge margin of error. so big as to be practically meaningless.


Agreed,
But in a pool of 1000 samples if you drop 250 of the oldest and add 250 of the newest and you have a 7 point difference in the gap between the top two parties,

Either the oldest sample was incredibly in favor of the Liberals and the latest have been closer, or the new sample is incredibly in favor of the CPC with the older ones being more spread.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2018 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

True but if you have a total sample size of 1000, and you roll over 250 every week, the opinions you are dropping are amost five weeks old (from the time the data was collected) ... a poll result published today would have a quarter of its data collected last year!

So the current poll results include data from the post-Christmas warm glow with the colder feelings about how the trade negotiations are going and such stuff.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

March 2, 2018 4:00 pm Updated: March 2, 2018 4:09 pm

Justin Trudeau would lose if an election were held tomorrow, India trip a symptom of shift in mood: Ipsos poll

By Amanda Connolly National Online Journalist Global News



A new poll conducted exclusively for Global News suggests Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals would lose to the Conservatives if an election were held tomorrow.



If a federal election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would win.




According to a new Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Global News, public reaction to a recent troubled trip by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to India two weeks ago might be a symptom of a growing problem.

Liberals would win 33 per cent of the national popular decided vote if Canadians went to the polls this weekend, while Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives would receive 38 per cent of the same vote and win the election.



That’s a drop of five points since December for the Liberals and a jump of seven points since the same time for the Conservatives.

The NDP would get 21 per cent support, while the Green Party would get five per cent of the vote.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, said the declining fortunes for Trudeau and the Liberals are likely due to self-inflicted wounds.

“It’s the first time we’ve shown, since before the election, any time the Liberals have been behind. They’ve been consistently four or five points ahead of their nearest competitor; sometimes more than that for the last two years and a bit,” Bricker said.

“The remarkable thing about it is very little of it has to do with any of the qualities of the opposition parties. This is really people evaluating the government on its own terms and the Liberal Party on its own terms.”


The poll also found a five-point drop in the approval rating of the government.

A slim majority of 54 per cent now disapproves of the performance of the Liberal government under Trudeau while a minority of 46 per cent approves.

Of that, only nine per cent of respondents said they strongly approve of the government, while 37 per cent said they somewhat approve.

Twenty-eight per cent said they strongly disapprove and 26 per cent said they somewhat disapprove.


Bricker said the poll suggests a shift in public perceptions of Trudeau himself and many of the aspects of the party that initially drew in voters during the 2015 campaign, and suggested the recent trip to India is a prime example of that change.


“Something seems to have turned in terms of people’s reaction to the things that the government typically would do and get praised for,” he said.

Last week, Trudeau and his family, along with 14 Liberal MPs, spent a week in India that was meant to be focused on boosting trade and cultural ties between the two countries.


However, the trip was dogged by criticism about the Canadian contingent’s consistent wearing of traditional Indian clothing and suggestions by opposition critics that the official schedule was light on business and heavy on tourist stops.

The biggest headline from the trip, though, continues to be Liberal MP Randeep Sarai’s decision to invite convicted attempted murder Jaspal Atwal.


That conviction earned Atwal a spot on the India government’s travel blacklist — from which he was mysteriously removed last year.

While Trudeau has said the invite never should have been granted and was promptly yanked once news of it emerged, a senior government source told reporters several days later that the decision to remove Atwal from the travel blacklist raised questions about whether factions in India had orchestrated Atwal’s presence in order to try and sabotage the trip.

Global News agreed at the time of the interview not to identify the source.

According to the poll, 40 per cent of Canadians think the trip to India had a negative effect on Canada-India relations. Just 16 per cent think it was a positive step forward while 21 per cent think it had no impact on relations.

As well, reaction to the federal budget among Canadians has been largely lukewarm, Bricker said, pointing to poll numbers that suggest only nine per cent of Canadians gave the federal budget “two thumbs up.”

In contrast, 23 per cent gave it “two thumbs down” while the vast majority of 69 per cent said they would merely “shrug their shoulders” at it.


“Once the mood starts to sour towards the things that used to make you strong, it starts to stick to everything,” Bricker said. “The thing that’s really held them up is the prime minister and people’s views of him so when that takes a hit, everything starts to go and that’s what’s happened here.”

In Ontario, key to any election victory given the rich number of seats in the province, the Trudeau Liberals may be starting to see a similar tarnishing of their brand in connection with the public discontent with the government of Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne.

Popular vote breakdowns in the province show Conservatives with a lead at 43 per cent, compared to the Liberals at 36 per cent.

While Liberal support holds strong in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, along with a three-way tie between the major parties in British Columbia, support for the party in the Prairies has plummeted.

In Alberta, support for the Conservatives is at 62 per cent, while 25 per cent support the NDP and 11 per cent the Liberals.

In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives have a 20-point lead over the Liberals, who sit at 24 per cent support.

Bricker said that Prairie pounding is also part of what is dragging down the national numbers for the Liberals, but noted he would want to see several more such polls holding steady with similar results before predicting a long-term problem for the party.

“It’s clearly not been the best couple of weeks. The polling evidence is clear,” he said. “The question is whether they can get back on track. They have time on their side so the potential is there but it’s going to be a bit of a shock.”

This Ipsos poll on behalf of Global News was an online survey of 1,001 Canadian adults conducted between Feb. 28 and March 1, 2018. The results were weighted to better reflect the composition of the adult Canadian population, according to census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


https://globalnews.ca/news/4058984/justin-trudeau-india-trip-ipsos-poll/
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Part of the analysis of the results"

Quote:
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs, said the declining fortunes for Trudeau and the Liberals are likely due to self-inflicted wounds.

“It’s the first time we’ve shown, since before the election, any time the Liberals have been behind. They’ve been consistently four or five points ahead of their nearest competitor; sometimes more than that for the last two years and a bit,” Bricker said.

“The remarkable thing about it is very little of it has to do with any of the qualities of the opposition parties. This is really people evaluating the government on its own terms and the Liberal Party on its own terms.”
https://globalnews.ca/news/4058984/justin-trudeau-india-trip-ipsos-poll/


In other words, the party's support is ebbing away just because the smell is becoming putrid. It's not because of an effective opposition.

In other news ... Where's Andrew?

Quote:
Andrew Scheer says sexual assault allegations against ex-MP are 'disturbing'
Former chief of staff to Conservative whip confirms she told party of allegations against Rick Dkystra
John Paul Tasker · CBC News · Posted: Jan 29, 2018 1:29 PM ET | Last Updated: January 29

Opposition Leader Andrew Scheer was forced to fend off questions Monday about how a former Conservative MP was allowed to run in the 2015 election despite allegations of sexual assault, saying candidates accused of misconduct would be barred from the party under his leadership.

Rick Dykstra stepped down as president of the Ontario PC Party Sunday after Maclean's magazine contacted him about accusations he sexually assaulted a parliamentary staffer in Ottawa when he was a Conservative MP in 2014.

The allegations were the latest to rock parties on both sides of the aisle in Ottawa, as well as in provincial parties in Ontario and Nova Scotia in the last week.

"This sexual assault allegation is disturbing and has no place in Canadian society, especially within our political system," Scheer said in a statement to CBC News. "We understand how difficult it can be for women to come forward under these circumstances."

The Maclean's report said the incident was known to senior Conservative staffers — as it had been reported to the party's whip and subsequently to Ottawa police — and yet he was still cleared to run for the party in the 2015 campaign.

CBC News has not spoken to the victim of this alleged sexual assault, who has not been identified.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4508752


This in a party that refuses to acknowledge the role that gender plays in politics.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

one has to wonder if anything will change in Ottawa cause of these numbers ?


the though had always been that trudeau was unsinkable and virtually guaranteed a second term like Obama and others got


but this polls says they couldn't even win a minority if there was an election today


perhaps its time to shake up the PMO , show Gerard Butts the door , people care more about the economy , he only cares about the WWF/environment , he's doesn't care if he drives the country broke like he did in Ontario ,

the environmental issue plays well among elites downtown and intellectuals but among the working class , there worried about NAFTA and if they'll have a job or not , this PMO office just doesn't get it , there too ideological in nature
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The new Forums Poll seems to support the IR poll;

http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....202018.pdf

CPC: 46
LPC: 34
NDP: 14
GPC: 3
BQ: 2
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worth noting;

CPC support is up in Atlantic Canada and they lead in Quebec, both numbers I am a little reluctant to buy into at the moment.

Then the Tories maintain a fairly large lead from Ontario right up to the border of BC where they appear statistically tied with the LPC
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Worth noting;

CPC support is up in Atlantic Canada and they lead in Quebec, both numbers I am a little reluctant to buy into at the moment.

Then the Tories maintain a fairly large lead from Ontario right up to the border of BC where they appear statistically tied with the LPC


most of forum's numbers seem similar to other polls with the exception of atlantic Canada and Quebec

its a small sample size from quebec , perhaps they polled too heavily in cpc friendly quebec city region and not enough montreal


it does seem like the liberals are increasingly desperate , according to reports they are planning a new gun bill , which will surely be about winning back urban voters in Toronto , montreal and Vancouver but losing some rural ones elsewhere , there is really no reason for this bill other than to try and boost liberal fortunes in the cities and creating a wedge issue between liberals and conservatives

as it will surely accomplish nothing to prevent crime , criminals aren't going to apply for permits to transfer a gun and aren't buying them thru legal dealers so the new rules seem pointless if the goal is to prevent actual shootings
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

it does seem like the liberals are increasingly desperate , according to reports they are planning a new gun bill , which will surely be about winning back urban voters in Toronto , montreal and Vancouver but losing some rural ones elsewhere , there is really no reason for this bill other than to try and boost liberal fortunes in the cities and creating a wedge issue between liberals and conservatives


That would be ideal for the Tories.
The LPC trying to galvanize urban support which is traditionally an area that battle out with the NDP is fine by me.

All it does is alienate the ridings that got them their majority;
The LGR provoked reaction in rural ridings, when it was scrapped that issue and much of the motivation that issue had brought about vanished.
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You don't need polls to realize that chunks of Justin's coalition are crumbling. The population is way ahead of the politicians on this. They don't have to understand the nuances of international trade law to understand that our sweet deal is about to end.

NAFTA. It started out as the FTA, a deal between Canada and the US. That was one of three key steps that took us out of the hole, back in the 1980ies. (The others were a big new tax, the GST, and the famous Martin budget.) We were approaching Argentinian levels of currency manipulation. In other words, "free trade" gets a lot of credit for saving our asses from the disaster that was the way the Trudeau government financed the welfare state it was creating.

The public doesn't have that long perspective. It's more visceral. They sense we are going in the wrong direction. Everything is changing. Justin is not the answer.

On the surface it's surprising. Justin can point to a certain amount of success -- I know, around where I live, there are lots of signs up soliciting help. But people must see the storm clouds, even as the politicians cluck around, not knowing whether to go into denial or act indignant. (Note to the indignant: All countries normally set their own trade policies -- it isn't a matter of negotiating a solution that other world leaders would like.)

However, the public, who liked Justin so much in the sunny days after 9 years of Conservative rule, now seems to be losing faith in him. He probably has a short time to recover, or he will become a liability to the party. But can he? Is he a one-trick pony?
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

its a small sample size from Quebec , perhaps they polled too heavily in cpc friendly Quebec city region and not enough Montreal


I tend to agree;
The Ipsos poll has the Tories around 20% and the Liberals over 40%;

While that seems insurmountable I would imagine the LPC has numbers somewhere in the 50s to 60s on the Island of Montreal and close to that in the surrounding regions just off the island which makes up around 4m people of Quebec's 8m population.

Yet only around 33 seats of Quebec 78 seat total.
If the Tories can get into the mid-20s there should be at least some potential to start attracting quality candidates, much in the manner that was used to win a few by-elections in the past.

Eastern, Northern, and Central Quebec appears to be split the opportunity is there
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