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Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The tax cuts are on their way. Everything will change if the tax cuts are implemented in time.

There is a looming storm brewing about this Russian collusion thing, as it could well blow up in the Democrats' faces. That is, it gets progressively harder for them to press the case with Trump's people, and ignore the Clintons. And the moment they go deep on the Clinton's, a mountain of offences appear. Despite the election and the firing of Comey, the US Department of Justice is still jamming up any enquiry involving the Clintons, mostly because the Clinton people were so sure they had impunity that they left lots of evidence. And present DoJ employees, like Meuller and Rosenstein, committed possible offences.

If this comes out, it will be multiples of Watergate. Appearances indicate that the Obama administration corrupted not only the Department of Justice but also the IRS and that Obama himself was involved. It involves extracting a fee to allow foreign enterprises to influence policy, all illegal. It will be a massive effort to clean this up.

The point is, there are so many new factors that could emerge between now and election time that it's hard to see very far down the road.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What sets Alabama apart a little is the Special Election is a month and change away;
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Sen. Jeff Flake, a frequent critic of President Donald Trump, announced Tuesday that he won’t seek re-election in 2018 amid the tumultuous state of U.S. national politics.


http://www.fox23.com/news/brea...../629356843
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The timing of Flake's announcement is interesting;
Mostly in that earlier this month State Senator Kelli Ward announced a primary challenge of Flake for the GOP nomination.

Usually that wouldn't be news, however in nearly every poll that pitted Ward against Flake amongst GOP voters Ward was usually ahead and in the most recent poll by a fairly healthy margin.

It would have been interesting to see if Flake would have made it through the primary.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know much about the individual senators, as you probably know. My impression is that Flake is an old-line conservative Republican.

Quote:
... The overall electorate in Arizona seems down on Flake, based on his 18 percent approval rating in a recent survey by Public Policy Polling. And lest you think that low rating was connected to Flake's begrudging vote in favor of the failed GOP Obamacare replacement bill, note that in the same poll, that bill got a 31 percent approval rating and President Trump clocked in at 44 percent approval.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/21/this-is-war-here-are-the-likely-names-on-bannons-short-list-commentary.html


Apart from his virtues or vices, this illustrates Trump's power. I don't know how it happens, but Corker is quitting politics for the same reason. Bannon simply brings some organizing talent to these primary races.

This proves one thing: the public -- in lots of America -- likes what Trump says he wants to do, and are falling in behind him to help him accomplish it at the legislative level. That amounts to massive electoral support.

The picture that the media have been painting, until now, is not the truth. It's using events to consciously deceive. Trump won, fair and square, and his support is growing on the ground, and they've been trying to deny that.

This is political institutions working as they are supposed to in a democracy. It's that simple. The public mood is running against these two senators so strongly that both see they have no future unless they become entirely cynical. They would have to abandon their convictions and break commitments to be successful. Good for both of them for facing up to a tough reality.

That's how I look at it. Change has a personal cost. What we are seeing here, future historians will record, is the realignment of the big communities in the American population. I think the same thing is going to go on within the Democratic party. Not yet, it's just that they are much more the captive of the Democrat urban machines and labor unions than the Republicans are to the Chamber of Commerce.

The rednecks are going Republican. The next group will be the Blacks. (All it takes is for Republicans to become competitive with blacks for the future of the Democrats to radically change.) That's a prediction.

But that's a historian's perspective from someone who has no claims to historical expertise, I just read about history. Down on the ground, in real time, it's a sad moment for a couple of pretty decent politicians.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( although the democrats had a good night in Virginia , a house victory in a special election still remains elusive , the republicans held the Utah seat and have won all 5 special elections in republican seats this year )


Election Results: Curtis Wins U.S. House Seat in Utah


By MATTHEW BLOCH and JASMINE LEE LIVE 7:55:53 AM ET



John Curtis, the mayor of Provo, Utah’s third-largest city, won the race to represent the state's Third Congressional District, a role left vacant when Jason Chaffetz resigned to become a Fox News commentator. Mr. Curtis emerged from a contested primary as the Republican nominee and had held a wide lead in polls. Though the Democratic candidate, Kathie Allen, raised a sizable sum of money online by tapping into liberal loathing of Mr. Chaffetz, the district is overwhelmingly conservative.


Candidate

Party

Votes

Pct.




John Curtis
Republican
62,498 57.6%

Kathie Allen
Democrat
29,449 27.1

Jim Bennett
UUT
9,641 8.9

Sean Whalen
Independent
2,968 2.7

Joe Buchman
Libertarian
2,372 2.2

Jason Christensen
Independent American
1,633 1.5




61% reporting (354 of 577 precincts)

U.S. House Map »





Salt Lake City

Provo


Salt Lake City

Provo


No results




County

Curtis

Allen

Bennett

Rpt.


Utah
37,455

7,049

4,767
47%
Salt Lake
16,544

16,391

3,634
73
Wasatch
3,485

1,997

490
87
Carbon
1,655

1,302

298
70
Grand
997

1,618

172
100
San Juan
1,418

865

171
80
Emery
944

227

109
50


2016 Utah Results »

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/utah-house-special-election
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Voters delivered a forceful rebuke of President Trump and his party on Tuesday, with Democrats winning the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey and making inroads in suburban communities that once favored the Republicans.
The New York Times Morning Briefing


It was a bigger margin than was predicted, but the exultation in the reporting is unmistakable. But is it a foreceful rebuke?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Quote:
Voters delivered a forceful rebuke of President Trump and his party on Tuesday, with Democrats winning the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey and making inroads in suburban communities that once favored the Republicans.
The New York Times Morning Briefing


It was a bigger margin than was predicted, but the exultation in the reporting is unmistakable. But is it a foreceful rebuke?


Democrats came out in force;
So if this is a preview of 2018, its a problem.

The other issue here is with Virginia going Democrat in the Governors Mansion and the House, you likely find a situation where the electoral boundaries are redrawn ahead of the 2018 Midterms likely costing the GOP at least two to three House Seats.

So all this you have heard over the last year about gerrymandering is about to go radio silent LOL
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The more impressive feat was taking as many House seats as they did. Gillespie's candidacy was probably always a bit of a long-shot.

It gets hard to 'suss out' whether it's a rebuke to Trump or not. It certainly isn't an endorsement, but there could have been other issues that determined the House seats too. It might be a mix of things which include Trump. Virginia, after all, borders Washington DC, and has been hooked into the heart of the Clinton Democrats. It probably has a lot of civil servants in their electorate, and civil servants might very well feel threatened by all the uncertainty that Trump is associated with.

Maybe the media stirred hopes. Or maybe the Democrats have figured out how to make their comeback. Who knows?
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
The more impressive feat was taking as many House seats as they did. Gillespie's candidacy was probably always a bit of a long-shot.

It gets hard to 'suss out' whether it's a rebuke to Trump or not. It certainly isn't an endorsement, but there could have been other issues that determined the House seats too. It might be a mix of things which include Trump. Virginia, after all, borders Washington DC, and has been hooked into the heart of the Clinton Democrats. It probably has a lot of civil servants in their electorate, and civil servants might very well feel threatened by all the uncertainty that Trump is associated with.

Maybe the media stirred hopes. Or maybe the Democrats have figured out how to make their comeback. Who knows?



American politics often see's dramatic swings either for or against the party in power , sometimes these happen soon after the new president is elected , both Bill Clinton and Obama saw massive loses for the democrats in first mid term elections after they got elected , but we haven't seen this happen as often with republicans , I don't recall it happening to Bush at least not till a few years after he had been in power and less popular


but its too early to say that is whats brewing in time for the next mid term elections . also the democratic base of support is based in urban America and they already hold most of those house seats ( places like Chicago , New York etc ) , it doesn't mater if they win them by more % , they need to find new votes in places they don't normally win and considering they've gone 0/5 in special elections so far that may be a work In progress
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In both cases, Clinton and Obama, they started out going way left, and were rebuked by the following mid-terms. Clinton tried to bring in Hillary-care, remember? And Obama's first two years were like a study in African politics. He pushed a spending bill through that the reps couldn't read until they had passed it because not enough time was allowed for the members to digest it. He also brought in Obamacare.

Those were both unusual circumstances.

The difference is that the hard left has taken over a lot of the Democrat caucus, and their philosophy is that they benefit from crises. So they are more aggressive than politicians would have been earlier. They feel, about Obamacare, that it doesn't matter if it fails, it can't be replaced by a market-based system. The political cost would be too great. They may be right.

But Trump is exactly a reaction to that.

What happens in 2018 will depend as much, or more, on the Trump tax cuts, and getting the job growth he wants.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Bugs wrote:
Quote:
Voters delivered a forceful rebuke of President Trump and his party on Tuesday, with Democrats winning the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey and making inroads in suburban communities that once favored the Republicans.
The New York Times Morning Briefing


It was a bigger margin than was predicted, but the exultation in the reporting is unmistakable. But is it a foreceful rebuke?


Democrats came out in force;
So if this is a preview of 2018, its a problem.

The other issue here is with Virginia going Democrat in the Governors Mansion and the House, you likely find a situation where the electoral boundaries are redrawn ahead of the 2018 Midterms likely costing the GOP at least two to three House Seats.

So all this you have heard over the last year about gerrymandering is about to go radio silent LOL



Virginia seems to be a state where republicans got it wrong , but if that's cause of Trump or local state level factors , I'm not really sure as I've never been there .

they seemed to have a message that resonated with the older more rural and republican areas but are losing the state in the newer growing suburbs outside of Washington DC and other cities and don't seem to have a message that sells in those places .

but the election of a democratic governor in Virginia wasn't really a surprise and had been seen as the outcome for some time , the house results are more surprising , that they managed to make so many gains but it was a state election and its not really clear to those outside of the state , what factors were in play there
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As Pelosi gloats, GOP determined to hold Congress after election losses


Brooke Singman By Brooke Singman | Fox News



Pelosi says it's crucial she remain Democratic Party leader

Political panel reacts to the House minority leader's comments.

With Election Day 2017 in the rearview and no major victories for GOP candidates, Republicans are brushing themselves off and shifting focus toward the 2018 midterms – insisting the party is “better positioned” than ever.


But as Barack Obama learned in 2010, the first midterm for a new president can deliver an agenda-stalling power shift on Capitol Hill. President Trump still enjoys majorities in both chambers, and GOP leaders want to keep it that way, vowing to keep the House speaker's gavel out of Nancy Pelosi's hands even as she claims the "door is open" to flipping the House.

“We are seeing that voters across this country want to see things get done in Washington, and at the RNC we’re seeing record fundraising and support of President Trump and his agenda,” Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said on “America’s Newsroom” Wednesday morning.


“So as Republicans, we need to keep working on behalf of the American people and accomplish the things we ran on. ... And I think we’re better positioned than we’ve ever been for the midterms.”


“Tonight’s success is just the beginning."
- Tom Perez, DNC chairman
Tuesday night was undeniably a setback for the GOP -- and brought a badly needed pair of wins for Democrats in key gubernatorial races. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam beat Republican Ed Gillespie in Virginia, and Phil Murphy easily beat GOP Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno in New Jersey.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said Tuesday night that they won because "voters know that Democrats share their values of inclusion and opportunity," and stressed that the "new DNC" showed its commitment to "organizing for our values."


On 'America's Newsroom,' Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel says Republicans are 'better positioned than we've ever been' heading into the 2018 midterms.
Video


RNC reacts to gubernatorial losses in Virginia, NJ


House Minority Leader Pelosi, D-Calif., claimed Wednesday the “door is open” to retaking the House. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said Tuesday “was a rejection” of Trump.

But McDaniel brushed off the losses, saying those are races Democrats typically win, in blue states that are “getting bluer and bluer.”

She reminded Democrats reading deep into the victories that “Republicans won five special [House] elections, including Utah last night.” McDaniel said Democrats would “try to create this big narrative,” but "they should have won Virginia and they should have won New Jersey."

Trump, meanwhile, blamed Gillespie himself for the loss in the Virginia, suggesting he should have embraced the Trump agenda more.

“Ed Gillespie worked hard but did not embrace me or what I stand for. Don’t forget, Republicans won 4 out of 4 House seats, and with the economy doing record numbers, we will continue to win, even bigger than before!” Trump tweeted from Seoul, South Korea on Tuesday night, just minutes after the gubernatorial race was called in Virginia for Northam.

The president repeatedly urged voters to support Gillespie leading up to Election Day, but the Republican nominee kept a certain distance from Trump throughout the campaign, even as he adopted some of the president’s tough immigration policies.

But while Gillespie tried to strike a balance in the swing state—the only southern state Trump lost in last year’s presidential election –Democrats worked hard to tie Gillespie to the president at every turn.


For his part, Northam did shift his stance on some policies like Confederate statues and immigration after he secured his candidacy following the primary, and even said he would work with Trump.

“Northam moved the needle by saying I’m going to work with this president,” McDaniel said Wednesday, adding that if there is “a playbook for Democrats, it’s to work with the president.”

Trump's political capital, though, may be determined in the coming weeks based on whether he and congressional Republicans can push through a tax reform package.

For now, it's unclear whether running against Trump is a winning strategy for Democrats.

For months, Democrats feverishly worked to make every local election a referendum on the president and lost a streak of House races doing so. In a Tuesday night tweet, Trump referred to those special elections in Kansas, Montana, Georgia and South Carolina – races Republicans swept.

But Republicans are gearing up for a big fight in 2018 — with multiple GOP lawmakers in both the House and the Senate slated to retire when their terms end.

Just this week, GOP Reps. Frank LoBiondo, R-N.J., and Ted Poe, R-Texas, announced their retirements, adding to the list of Republican lawmakers bowing out after 2018, including Reps. Dave Trott, R-Mich.; Charlie Dent, R-Pa.; and Dave Reichert, R-Wash.; and Sens. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., and Bob Corker, R-Tenn.

Despite the retirements, Democrats need to mount a wave next fall to win the necessary 24 seats and retake the House. In the Senate, Democrats need three pick-ups to flip the chamber.

"We’ve demonstrated we can win tough, competitive races, and as you look into the next year, the major takeaway from last night is it is important for Republicans to pass major legislative items,” National Republican Congressional Committee press secretary Jesse Hunt told Fox News on Wednesday. “Voters are going to have a different choice next year that wasn’t necessarily applicable last night, and that is -- do you want Nancy Pelosi as House speaker? I think Republicans will have success because the prospect of Nancy Pelosi becoming speaker again is something voters will reject overwhelmingly.”

It's unclear whether Tuesday's victories will turn things around, but the Democratic National Committee has struggled in fundraising all year compared with McDaniel's RNC.

The "new DNC" has promised to deliver victories.

“Tonight’s success is just the beginning," Perez promised Tuesday night. "We believe that every zip code counts, and we will organize 365 days a year against a Republican Party that always caters to Wall Street instead of Main Street. That’s how we will keep winning elections from the school board to the Oval Office.”

http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....osses.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is taken from an email I got from Hillary. (You are probably wondering about that -- it's because, in my past poking around, I got myself on a mailing list.)

Quote:
With the support of Onward Together, 40% of the candidates that Run for Something endorsed and supported won their races in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and more -- compared to the 10% rate at which first-time candidates usually win. 86 women trained by Emerge America won last night, including nine of the seats flipped in Virginia. Color of Change PAC was instrumental in winning the district attorney race in Philadelphia. And Indivisible groups made more than 600,000 calls into Virginia to help pull out a win for Ralph Northam, Justin Fairfax, and Mark Herring.


The news is a babble of theories about what it all means. They are probably all best regarded as "spin".
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Media Buzz

· 5 hours ago

Caution: Democrats claim victory over Trump, but Virginia may not be a trend


Howard Kurtz By Howard Kurtz | Fox News


Kurtz: Why GOP faced uphill battle in Virginia

'MediaBuzz' host Howard Kurtz explains why the Democrats had a very good Election night but why the media shouldn't be so quick to think it will be a trend.

Pundits are famous for going overboard in interpreting a couple of local elections and boldly predicting the future.


But that's not quite the case with the Democratic victory in Virginia. It really was, to a striking degree, about President Trump.

That’s certainly the message of the mainstream media, many of whose members seem to be in a very good mood this week.


Washington Post headline: "Democratic Wins are Stinging Repudiation of Trump One Year After His Election."

New York Times lead: "Voters delivered their first forceful rebuke of President Trump and his party on Tuesday night."

Even Drudge goes with "DEMS BORN AGAIN."


But I have to take a pause and say that Democrat Ralph Northam trouncing Republican Ed Gillespie for governor was not entirely about Trump. (The New Jersey governor's race was never competitive, since the Republican was Chris Christie's lieutenant governor and his poll ratings have been in the toilet.)

Virginia, and this is a generational shift, has basically become a blue state. Four of the last five governors, including outgoing incumbent Terry McAuliffe, have been Democrats. Both of the state’s senators are Democrats. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton carried Virginia in the last three elections.

Given the clout of Northern Virginia's increasingly liberal Washington suburbs, it’s possible that no Republican could have won the governor's mansion this year.

And Gillespie was caught in a no-man's land. He is a savvy establishment Republican who has been RNC chairman and President Bush’s counselor, as well as a corporate lobbyist.

But he distanced himself from Trump, never inviting him to campaign or raise money, while hitting certain Trumpian themes—illegal immigration and Confederate statues—designed to appeal to his voters.

In exit polls, half the state’s voters said Trump was a reason for their vote, and 34 percent said they were casting their ballots to oppose Trump, 17 percent to support him.

Northam, an extremely low-key lieutenant governor, may have benefitted from the fact that he is a relative moderate who twice voted for George W. Bush. He performed better than Clinton in a couple of D.C.'s exurban counties.

Interestingly, few commentators were willing to predict a Northam victory, especially with tightening polls in the final two weeks; he won by almost 9 points. In hindsight, of course, everyone's an expert.

But for all the chatter about how the Democrats are now poised to take over the House, Times analyst Nate Cohn offered these cautionary words:

"It is not obvious that Tuesday's performance represents a significant improvement over the Democrats' showings earlier in the year. In 2018, they won’t always get the luxury of competing in such favorable districts. To take the House next November, they might have to do even better than they did on Tuesday."

America, in short, is not Virginia or New Jersey. The Democrats would need to pick up 24 seats, some of them in red states. The Dems got a much-needed morale boost, but the midterms are still a year away and the Trump presidency could look very different by then.

http://www.foxnews.com/politic.....trend.html
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