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RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 24, 2017 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Ah yes;
The Social Conservative Boogieman.



abortion seems like a weird issue for the unions to be obsessed about ? especially at a time when there re negotiating NAFTA . a trade deal that surely must be more important to the typical union member than social issues are ?

it just all seems weird that this is what they choose to fixate over , I personally think voters will mostly tune out there pre election ads anyways

unless wynne changes the law there only allowed to spend $100,000 on ads during the actual election , an amount so low they'd have no impact . but wynne has her own enemies and she might be worried a group could pop up and start attacking her so it could be risky to allow more third party ads this election
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Ah yes;
The Social Conservative Boogieman.



abortion seems like a weird issue for the unions to be obsessed about ? especially at a time when there re negotiating NAFTA . a trade deal that surely must be more important to the typical union member than social issues are ?

it just all seems weird that this is what they choose to fixate over , I personally think voters will mostly tune out there pre election ads anyways

unless wynne changes the law there only allowed to spend $100,000 on ads during the actual election , an amount so low they'd have no impact . but wynne has her own enemies and she might be worried a group could pop up and start attacking her so it could be risky to allow more third party ads this election


Its the usual fear mongering.

Even if these social issues were near and dear to you, neither one is within the realm of the Province to change. They are relying on the ignorance of the voter to be "shocked".

The reality is a group representing Unions is going to represent Unions, the best interest of the overall Province isn't their mandate here.

With that in mind, chances are a PC government will be far less of a spending party than either an OLP or an NDP one which is why they are as opposed.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't imagine women are actually generating anxiety about the possible loss of their right to kill the children within them ... more likely, they are trying to figure out a way to add husbands to the list of permissible executions.

The real social conservative issues are the sexual weirdness that is being accommodated and encouraged in the school system.

I don't know why the usual boneheads of gutless Conservatism don't see an opportunity here. These are the facts -- which will almost certainly start TC foaming, and we always enjoy that.

Children go into a period called latency which is from 6 to puberty. Exactly primary school age. In that time, boys and girls seem to spontaneously separate. Girls seem to like to play with dolls and boys like to shoot at each other. They do not play the same games, typically, or have any interest in each other if left on their own.

We all know this.

And then puberty comes, and the perfectly composed 11-year-old girl suddenly becomes a neurotic mess at 12; the boys do the same, only less dramatically. Awkwardness and self-consciousness prevail. Often girls, seeing what is ahead of them, go through a tom-boy stage, but it is a stage. Boys tend to show off and start fighting, and the losers withdraw. Anyone who ever raised chickens knows all about it.

Until now. Now the schools are going to be there to make sure what would otherwise be a more-or-less normal 'stage' that lots of people go through into a sexual prefernce choice that will be final! Particularly if it gets to hormones and surgery. Professionals in the field claim that post-op transsexuals are committing suicide at a more-than-alarming rate -- like 40%!

It seems to me that this ought to be opposed. It is being imposed politically, and it ought to be opposed politically. They have an unstated agenda to make homosexuality more mainstream than it is. It is engineering homosexuality and transsexual-ism into the fabric of our institutions.

That is the winning social conservative issue of the moment. Abortion is what they want to use to frighten the dumb female vote into the Liberal corral.

Understand, I am not against people making their own choices on all of these questions. But this is the opposite of that -- this is putting all of our school-aged children into a choice before they are really ready to stumble into their own preferneces. It's an effort to pre-load the outcome.

Conservatives are wrong to stifle this part of their support. What shows the perversity of government more than when it chases ideology to the point of interfering with the natural sexual development of the children they are supposed to be preparing to prosper in our society?

And what shows the shallowness of Conservatism in Canada better than its willingness to stifle opposition to these Orwellian plans in order to avoid bad press? They should take it on.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:
cosmostein wrote:
Ah yes;
The Social Conservative Boogieman.



abortion seems like a weird issue for the unions to be obsessed about ? especially at a time when there re negotiating NAFTA . a trade deal that surely must be more important to the typical union member than social issues are ?

it just all seems weird that this is what they choose to fixate over , I personally think voters will mostly tune out there pre election ads anyways

unless wynne changes the law there only allowed to spend $100,000 on ads during the actual election , an amount so low they'd have no impact . but wynne has her own enemies and she might be worried a group could pop up and start attacking her so it could be risky to allow more third party ads this election


Its the usual fear mongering.

Even if these social issues were near and dear to you, neither one is within the realm of the Province to change. They are relying on the ignorance of the voter to be "shocked".

The reality is a group representing Unions is going to represent Unions, the best interest of the overall Province isn't their mandate here.

With that in mind, chances are a PC government will be far less of a spending party than either an OLP or an NDP one which is why they are as opposed.



the good news for the pc's here is clearly there winning and on pace to win the next election . these unions wouldn't be running these ads if they hadn't crunched the numbers and looked thru the polls and decided they had no other choice but to step in and try and stop Brown from winning

the bad news is the opposition to the pc's is getting more desperate and crazy by the day and willing to throw anything at the wall as they say in an attempt for something to stick in the minds of swing and low information voters .

but I'm not convinced social issues are browns weakness as they seem to think , he marched in a gay pride parade and party has already made it clear no social issues are in there platform or even up for debate at policy convention , so there ads seem to be based in fiction and undecided voters aren't even paying attention at this point , so they seem like a waste of money at this point
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think marching is a Gay Pride parade is a way to get votes, myself. Perhaps we can see how Progressive Conservatives do in Toronto Centre next June ... and see if it made any difference.

I think Brown has a greater chance of losing social conservative votes to some third party.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 1:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I don't think marching is a Gay Pride parade is a way to get votes, myself. Perhaps we can see how Progressive Conservatives do in Toronto Centre next June ... and see if it made any difference.

I think Brown has a greater chance of losing social conservative votes to some third party.



well I wasn't saying he was gaining votes by marching In the pride parade more using it as an example of why these union ads are rather crazy and down right lies .

the Ontario pc party has absolutely no social conservative agenda of any kind , to claim it does is simply not true and entirely made up

there is absolutely no reason abortion should be one of the top issues heading into the 2018 election , there is a long list of real issues the province should be discussing
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 26, 2017 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was hoping you'd see that we aren't going to get those votes, and even less likely are we to get those seats anyway.

I don't mean to alienate anybody. I think opposing this sex ed program in the schools, for instance, would have support from within the homosexual community. Not the activists, but for the less flashy, workaday gays that take the subway and look for the specials in the food court, and all of that modern life stuff -- trust me, a lot of them think there are only two sexes. Just don't expect them to say so publicly.

All they really want is tolerance, and you have to go to Holland to find a more tolerant place that big city Canada. It's just that we keep rewarding whining so they keep whining.

What worries me more is politicians who confuse the anticipated voice of the media with the anticipated voice of the people.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( there has yet to be any change in the polls cause of these ads , a new forum poll still has the pc's at 45% and liberals way back at 24 % )


PC lead in Ontario Solid

October 27, 2017 @ 8:15 AM | Filed under: Ontario




PC lead in Ontario Solid

Toronto, October 26th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 946 Ontario voters, more than four in ten (45%) say they support the PCs.

One quarter (24%) say they would support the Liberals, with the NDP statistically tied at just over two in ten (22%). Just under one in ten (7%) say they support the Green Party, and few (2%) say they are supporting another party.


Respondents most likely to say they support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (49%) or 55-64 (46%), males (56%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (49%), $80,000-$100,000 (46%), or the most wealthy (49%), the least educated (47%) or with a college/university degree (48%), and living in Southwestern Ontario (53%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include females (28%), the least wealthy (31%), or earning $40,000-$60,000 (29%) or $60,000-$80,000 (28%), with a post-graduate degree (30%), and living in Eastern Ontario (29%) or Toronto (32%).

Respondents most likely to say that they support the NDP include those aged 35-44 (29%) or 65+ (27%), earning $20,000-$40,000 (31%), with some college/university (25%) or a post-graduate degree (25%), living in Toronto (23%), the 905 (24%), or the Northeast (26%).

“The PCs continue to hold a big lead across the province,” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Despite the positive outcome for the Liberals in Sudbury, it hasn’t yet changed any minds, and as the election creeps closer and closer, it seems like the PCs are going to need a major stumble to give the Liberals a chance at re-election.”


Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.


http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....ober-2017/
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ontario PCs now hold 20 point lead over Liberals, poll suggests



The Ontario PCs have amassed a 20 point lead over the Liberals, according to a new Forum Research poll.




Chris Herhalt, CP24.com
Published Friday, October 27, 2017 9:48AM EDT
Last Updated Friday, October 27, 2017 10:34AM EDT


Patrick Brown’s Progressive Conservatives now hold a 20 point lead over the governing Liberals, a new poll suggests.

The Forum Research poll conducted Tuesday and Wednesday, largely before a Sudbury judge acquitted two prominent Liberals of Election Act offences on Wednesday afternoon, found that 45 per cent of respondents want a Patrick Brown premiership, versus 24 per cent who say they prefer Kathleen Wynne.

Twenty-two percent of respondents said they would vote NDP in the next election, putting the party in a statistical tie with the Liberals.



“Despite the positive outcome for the Liberals in Sudbury, it hasn’t yet changed any minds, and as the election creeps closer and closer, it seems like the PCs are going to need a major stumble to give the Liberals a chance at re-election,” Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff wrote in a press release.

Seven per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Green Party and two per cent indicated support for an alternative party.

The PCs did well with respondents aged 45-54, or 55-64 (49 and 46 per cent support respective support), along with individuals earning more than $100,000 per year (49 per cent support).

Meanwhile, the Liberals secured their best support from Toronto residents (32 per cent support), Ontarians with a post-graduate degree (30 per cent support), or those earning less than $20,000 per year (31 per cent).

The poll surveyed 946 Ontario adults using telephone robocall and is considered accurate + or – three per cent, 19 times out of 20.

http://www.cp24.com/news/ontar.....-1.3651712
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The full breakdown is here;
http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....202017.pdf

For those interested.

At this point, I find myself looking for any bad news for the PCs rather than looking for all the positives.

The NDP will do will in Northern Ontario;
The PCs will do well everywhere else.
And the OLP will retain some of their 416 seats and likely lose the majority of their seats elsewhere.

The NDP being in second place in the 905s is the absolute worse case scenario for the OLP, Because now the potential replacements for Wynne find their seats vulnerable.

Kevin Flynn, Charles Sousa, and Bob Delaney almost certainly lose their seats by double digit margins if these numbers hold.

Its also entirely possible the PCs go 14 for 14 in Durham and York resulting in eight Liberal MPPs losing.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
... Respondents most likely to say they support the PCs include those aged 45-54 (49%) or 55-64 (46%), males (56%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (49%), $80,000-$100,000 (46%), or the most wealthy (49%), the least educated (47%) or with a college/university degree (48%), and living in Southwestern Ontario (53%).

Respondents most likely to say they support the Liberals include females (28%), the least wealthy (31%), or earning $40,000-$60,000 (29%) or $60,000-$80,000 (28%), with a post-graduate degree (30%), and living in Eastern Ontario (29%) or Toronto (32%).


It's like the survey has, hidden within it, the secret of life in Ontario. Obviously, if you want good company and a sane life, go to south-western Ontario, and hang out at the golf course. If you want to experience life as a chronic nagging headache, go to Toronto and hang around the Annex with highly educated women.

Or Riverdale, just as bad.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
The full breakdown is here;
http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....202017.pdf

For those interested.

At this point, I find myself looking for any bad news for the PCs rather than looking for all the positives.

The NDP will do will in Northern Ontario;
The PCs will do well everywhere else.
And the OLP will retain some of their 416 seats and likely lose the majority of their seats elsewhere.

The NDP being in second place in the 905s is the absolute worse case scenario for the OLP, Because now the potential replacements for Wynne find their seats vulnerable.

Kevin Flynn, Charles Sousa, and Bob Delaney almost certainly lose their seats by double digit margins if these numbers hold.

Its also entirely possible the PCs go 14 for 14 in Durham and York resulting in eight Liberal MPPs losing.


if this poll is accurate we can see why the unions and liberals are starting to panic . things don't look very good for the liberals or ndp

other polls have given closer numbers but either way the liberals are way down from the kinds of numbers they got in 2014 or other elections

there is many ridings in the GTA that the pc's historically did well in ( like Burlington , Mississauga South , Etobicoke Lakeshore , Durham ) although these ridings have changed a lot since the late 90's , the pc's could retake many of them in 2018 if the campaign goes well
RCO





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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

one also has to wonder what kind of campaign the liberals are going to run in 2018 ?

considering wynne's extremely low personal approval numbers , one has to think a visit by her campaign bus to a swing riding in the 905 isn't going to make much difference , her appearances in the by elections seemed to make little difference once the votes were counted

but she could still be dangerous to Brown and the pc's as she'd be given a month in front of the media camera's to make up accusations and such , much like she went after Harper in 2015 election

I also don't see the liberals being able to attract huge numbers of new volunteers , they'd need 100's of volunteers just in the 905 when looking at how many liberal ridings are going to be in play , they could have trouble finding people to knock on doors and such

which is clearly why the liberals and unions are looking at running a smear campaign against brown , they know things aren't looking good on the ground and wynne can't win it by herself
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Oct 28, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wynne is a really effective campaigner. Remember, she beat John Tory in his own riding, back when Tory was ridding the party of all vestiges of Mike Harris. Remember too how she turned the tables on Brown when he tried to make a little hay out of her testimony at a trial of some of her hench-people that are being prosecuted for doing what she had asked them to do.

When you think of her, you should visualize a scorpion. On top of that, she has all the advantages -- short of race -- that she can have to exploit identity politics to the max. She's a woman -- and we all know we have to do penance for the horrible way women were supposedly treated in those days before central heating and electricity.

And on top of that, she's a lesbian. There are just so many land-mines to step on ... so much to atone for.

Brown should approach her with a firehose. If she's a scorpion, he has to be a mongoose. She will try to make him detonate the land-mines.

I think he should make her ridiculous. You could ask her if she's playing Where's Waldo with our hydro bills, just for starters. Where is the money coming from? Deflate her answers.

A little secret that politicians don't understand. You can talk about all of these questions, but you have to do it in a phrasing the guys in the pickups at the drive-thru can understand. Those guys do it with humour, and their women are just the same. They are kind of salty in their own language. You could ask Wynne about the sack of shit she is leaving us with -- in that terminology -- if you did it with some humour.

But if you go on about how tax policy affects the small business sector, eyes glaze over.

There's so much material you almost can't ignore it. You could admire the loyalty she inspires -- aides that will face jail to protect her, for example. You just have to treat it like a one-liner from the comics playing at Dollywood.

And you have to do this without losing your gravitas.

When abortion comes up, Brown should refuse to play, just counter-charging her of making up an issue to avoid talking about the important things. He should say he wants to stick on the issues of today. He should say, it's not abortion anyone's worried about right now, it's wondering if we send our boys to high school, will they come back girls. Diefenbaker would have had them rolling in the aisles with this kind of material.

Brown should play to what the public already thinks -- and salt it with some factual material, and spin it to accentuate what a disaster she has been.

She has no defensive game. She only has an offence. If he can get the momentum of public opinion moving, she stands no chance. She wlll try mightily to involve Brown in some kind of breach of political correctness. These are the land-mines. The trouble with land mines is that you can detect and detonate them harmlessly. Brown should be scripting answers for these things right now.

Brown's job should be more focused on winning the media than winning an argument with Wynne. He just has to ignore her stinger and talk about her, rather than to her.

He should also invite the NDP to join him in 'their criticism of the past four years.

He just can't say anything that can be twisted into a comment about women in general. Or about the Premier's office being occupied by a coven of lesbian witches. He should say instead -- no, Mme Premier, it is you -- not women. It's you, not lesbians, that are at fault. Let's hope most good people see the difference.

She's despicable because of what she has done, not for the identity groups she can be put into. But she is despicable.

As I say she has no defence. The record of her administration is, at worst, corruption, at best, mismanagement. Where will the spending end? What is the truth?

Her only chance is to attack, and attack the counter-attack, and then attack again. Visualize a desperate scorpion in a corner, with all the spunk in the world. In the aboriginal world, our Iroquois brothers would have given her an anguished death, and then eaten her heart.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

New Ontario election advertising limits kick in Nov. 9, six months before campaign


By Canadian Press -
October 29, 2017


TORONTO — The start of Ontario’s election campaign is a little over six months away, but the battle for voters’ hearts and minds is already being waged as a new advertising landscape looms.

Both the province’s political parties and the special interest groups known as third parties will, for the first time, have caps on how much money they can spend on advertising starting Nov. 9 — six months before the writ drops.


For third parties, who have wielded considerable influence in previous elections, this will be the first time they have any spending maximums at all, including during the campaign itself. Until the rules changed this year, Ontario was the only jurisdiction in Canada to regulate third-party election advertising but impose no limits on it.

The Progressive Conservatives, the Liberals and a few third parties have put out ads recently, ahead of the restrictions kicking in, leaving Ontario already seemingly in the midst of a campaign months ahead of the June 7, 2018 vote.

The Tories — the party with the most money in the bank after a fundraising blitz last year — have been running ads all year that only feature leader Patrick Brown talking to the camera against a stark white backdrop. One of the party’s challenges is that polling consistently suggests Brown is unknown to half of Ontarians.

But other ads go full bore into negative territory, showing a picture of Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne’s face against a red backdrop and snippets of negative headlines.

The Liberals themselves recently released a positive ad, highlighting two of their most popular policies — a $15 minimum wage and free tuition for low- and middle-income students. The ad also features Wynne herself, a potentially risky choice, given her personal approval ratings of under 20 per cent for the better part of a year.

Deb Matthews, the deputy premier and Liberal campaign co-chair, admitted it’s “an unusual strategy.”

“I think it’s an approach that is different, but as I say, this was the ad that the premier really wanted to run,” Matthews said. She doesn’t believe it will backfire, calling Wynne the party’s “greatest asset.”

But while the Liberal ad strikes a positive tone, the Tories allege third-party groups are doing their dirty work, which the Liberals deny.

The Working Families Coalition, known for influential anti-Tory ads in previous elections, has recently put out their new offering. It depicts Brown as a weather vane and highlights inconsistencies between his current positions on social issues and previous votes as a federal MP.

Patrick Dillon with Working Families said the coalition is trying to spend what it can before the restrictions — which he says he personally finds “disgusting” — take effect.

“We’re going to maximize what we can do up to the deadline in November, then in a more moderate scale we’ll have to scale back for the next six months,” he said.

Working Families Coalition spent $2.5 million during last year’s campaign, with contributions from some of the province’s biggest unions. in 2014, third parties spent $8.64 million, which amounted to 17 per cent of all election spending.

Unions were some of the largest third-party advertisers, with teachers unions spending several million.

Now they will be limited to spending $600,000 on advertising in the six months before the campaign and $100,000 during it. Political parties will be restricted to $1 million in the six-month, pre-election period.

Progressive Conservative Lisa MacLeod said it was frustrating that third parties used to be able to spend more money in attack ads — mostly against her party — than all of the political parties, though she suspects now those massive spends will be split up over several third-party groups.

“I’m really getting very tired of watching these third-party organizations run millions in attack ads against (former PC leaders) Ernie Eves, John Tory, Tim Hudak and now Patrick Brown,” she said.

Another new factor this election will be social media-based groups such as Ontario Proud. The anti-Wynne group has already been wielding influence online, where it has amassed more than 260,000 Facebook followers — far more than the major three parties combined, as it likes to point out.

Ontario Proud’s Jeff Ballingal said he plans to put that to use as an officially registered third party this election. They have already bought digital ads ahead of the restrictions.

“There’s never really been a third party that’s been able to counteract the Liberal allies,” he said. “We’re able to reach more with less money because of the power of social media. We have such a large audience and an engaged audience online that we can put out a video and not spend any money on it and still thousands of people will see it.”

Allison Jones, The Canadian Press


https://saultonline.com/2017/10/new-ontario-election-advertising-limits-kick-in-nov-9-six-months-before-campaign-2/
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Union funded group plans to run ads in Ontario

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