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RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Burlington to the Border of Toronto along the QEW;
Burlington, Oakville, Oakville North—Burlington, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga—Streetsville, Mississauga—Erin Mills, Mississauga—Malton, Mississauga East—Cooksville, and Mississauga East Centre there are a few new seats but in those current boundaries you have no current PC MPPs

Basically nine seats one way then you go the other way through Hamilton you have seven ridings before you come across your first PC MPPs in Niagara West—Glanbrook.

The West 905s are usually the ridings that swing wildly to the party in power;
All of Mississauga was CPC in 2011 and all of it was LPC in 2015.

The party that forms government almost always has to have strength in this area in order to win and has been the challenging area for the PCs since Mike Harris.



historically the pc's did well in this area , if polling continues at its current trend , they shouldn't have any trouble regaining many of there lost seats In this region .

some of these ridings had almost always been pc , I believe Burlington had never been liberal provincially ever until there surprise win in 2014 .
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The abiding shamelessness of the Ontario Liberals

iPolitics Insights


Martin Patriquin


Wednesday, October 4th, 2017


Is there a more cynical government in the country than Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals?

This isn’t an entirely rhetorical question. Governments are made up of people who want to get re-elected, and they tend to go squirrelly in the face of chronic unpopularity and a looming election. A quick scan of the provinces suggests both of these conditions exist in only one place right now.

In New Brunswick, the Liberals are decently ahead in the lead-up to the election next fall. Same thing goes in Quebec — though I expect things to go south fairly quickly as the opposition continues to take advantage of Philippe Couillard’s lethargy and general ineptitude.

Rachel Notley’s NDP government is trailing in the polls, but with Alberta’s next election expected in 2019, she has the luxury of time. It’s much the same in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, P.E.I., Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. In all cases, elections are still far over the horizon. (British Columbia, the stage for a teetering coalition Gong Show, doesn’t count.)

This leaves only Ontario, where Wynne’s long lag in the polls, coupled with an election in ten months’ time, has stirred panic in Liberal ranks. Her personal approval rating hit a low of 12 per cent last March and has remained in the cellar since.

An ongoing bribery scandal involving two top Liberal operatives drags on, with Wynne herself suffering the indignity of having to testify last month. A large number of cabinet ministers have either left or have said they won’t seek re-election. Even the Toronto Star, that always-reliable Liberal echo chamber, is beginning to wake up to the fact that Wynne is very likely to lose in June 2018.

open quote 761b1bThe caustic effects of the minimum wage hike could be mitigated by, say, extending the increase over a greater period — but that’s not the point.

Somehow, though, Wynne remains firmly in place, with little sign that she’ll abdicate before the election. No doubt this is due, in part, to hubris; she was quite unpopular in 2014 but she easily won that particular tussle, if only because her opponent, Tim Hudak, campaigned like a man constructed of equal parts Pablum and wood chips. And since the Liberals have governed Ontario since 2003, you can almost forgive them for believing in their own infallibility.

Yet there is something else at work — something as predictable as it is cynical. Instead of wooing Ontario with her personal charm, the Liberals will instead rely on the provincial purse strings to coax votes from a recalcitrant public.

Last month, the Wynne government announced an increase in the province’s minimum wage, from $11.40 to $15 in January 2019. This increase, amounting to over 31 per cent in less than three years, is by far the largest in the province’s recent history. The effects of such a dramatic increase over such a short period of time are open to question. Ontario’s non-partisan Financial Accountability Office estimates the increase could result in the loss of 50,000 jobs and “would be an inefficient policy tool for reducing overall poverty.”

The caustic effects of the minimum wage hike could be mitigated by, say, extending the increase over a greater period — but that’s not the point. Increasing the minimum wage is a bumper sticker initiative designed specifically to strengthen the Liberal’s monopoly on virtue in time for the election. Stretching out the increases over a longer time would rob it of its political potency.

The minimum wage hike is a brilliant move because it neutralizes Wynne’s opposition on the left — and enrages the right. Meanwhile, if you argue against its timing, or question Wynne’s own motivations behind it, you’re suddenly an enemy of the province’s working poor. Do you hate motherhood and pussycats too, Genghis Khan?

The minimum wage hike is the latest example of the Liberal tradition of well-timed and seemingly virtuous announcements. In 2011, the party announced the cancellation of two gas-powered electrical generating stations. The ostensible reason — the environment, stupid — masked the real motivation: Normally reliable Liberal voters in Oakville, where one of the gas plants was to be located, got a case of NIMBYism and threatened to defect to the opposition. Oakville quickly fell into line, and the Liberals eked out a victory.

The same virtuous cynicism seems to be working for Wynne. Internal party polls, obtained by the Canadian Press in August, suggest Wynne’s minimum wage gambit, her government’s hydro bill cuts and its rent control policy are all overwhelmingly popular with Ontario’s hoi polloi — even though Wynne herself isn’t. Expect Wynne to cleave even further left in the coming months, to nibble just enough support away from the hapless Ontario NDP.

And expect a slight refrain of the 2014 election, where Wynne is portrayed as working on the side of the angels — while her opponent, Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, is presented as a cold-hearted, mouth-breathing social conservative bent on persecuting the province’s most vulnerable.

After all, it’s worked so many times before.


http://ipolitics.ca/2017/10/04.....-liberals/
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:


And expect a slight refrain of the 2014 election, where Wynne is portrayed as working on the side of the angels — while her opponent, Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, is presented as a cold-hearted, mouth-breathing social conservative bent on persecuting the province’s most vulnerable.

After all, it’s worked so many times before.


http://ipolitics.ca/2017/10/04.....-liberals/


Its funny because its true;
Social Conservatives and Patrick Brown have certainly had their issues;
Yet to the Urban Centers Brown is marketed by the opposition and the media as a firm social conservative.

Its amazing the way he is painted depending on the constituency.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amazing? Or predictable?

I think what you are saying is that the media will twist their reports to maximize the damage to Conservatives. But Conservatives, by catering to the media definitions, does it too. Why don't we just call social conservatives "a basket of deplorables"?

What is the problem with social conservatives? In today's context, they deserve a place at the table. First of all, we aren't talking about a woman's right to kill the life that grows within her.

We are now talking about a program of sexual education that has been accused of "grooming" young people for homosexuality by confusing them about gender.

I imagine almost all parents are concerned about this, or remain in the dark, stupidly trusting educational officials. And the officials are not going to explain to a basket of deplorables. That's for sure.

But why is the Progressive Conservative party turning their back on them? How does this make good politics? Is Brown banking on seats in the inner city of Toronto? Good luck with that.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think that Brown is going after Social Conservatives as hard as the advertising would imply, I am not as remotely convinced of his "progressive-ism" as been touted.

When Brown ran as leader he was "attacked" as a social conservative;
And based on his Federal Voting Record, I can understand why.

He will be sold as a Pro Life Neanderthal in Urban Ridings and sold as a "Progressive" Liberal in Conservative Clothing in Rural ridings.

For a guy who has almost no formal policy and won't till November when all ridings have a seat at the table at the policy convention, he sure seems to be firmly defined in the eyes of the media.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know you're right, so far as Brown's personal convictions are concerned, and I also realize that there's nothing that unifies women more than the fear that they won't be able to kill their unborn children free, at government expense, into the future.

But the issues of social conservatism have moved way beyond that, and the people, in general, were never asked about something as fundamental as gender. This seems to me to be more akin to a physical assault on the children, or at least a form of child abuse. I mean that in the sense that this 'education' is going to seriously confuse some kids and leave them, at 25, wishing they hadn't had their dick cut off.

It's like Progressive Conservatives are part of a conspiracy of silence on the subject.


Last edited by Bugs on Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
I don't think that Brown is going after Social Conservatives as hard as the advertising would imply, I am not as remotely convinced of his "progressive-ism" as been touted.

When Brown ran as leader he was "attacked" as a social conservative;
And based on his Federal Voting Record, I can understand why.

He will be sold as a Pro Life Neanderthal in Urban Ridings and sold as a "Progressive" Liberal in Conservative Clothing in Rural ridings.

For a guy who has almost no formal policy and won't till November when all ridings have a seat at the table at the policy convention, he sure seems to be firmly defined in the eyes of the media.



the media ? they barely seem to pay any attention to him , they barely show him on the news , some newscasts even go as far as to refer to Andrea Horwath as the opposition leader


but as the title of posts indicates the polling in Ontario is all being driven by wynne's personal numbers being so horrible , there hasn't been a premier with personal numbers that low that I can recall . so the opposition hasn't had to do a lot to see a boost in the polls

in desperation wynne now wants to reopen old divisive social issues , first up appears to be abortion with a plan to ban protests at abortion clinics ( I personally suspect they have already been told by lawyers that it would legally be challenging to ban someone from protesting something due to various charter rights and freedom of speech laws especially if the protest took place on public property , but either way she has decided to push forward )
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Campaign Research’s Omnibus Poll is an online survey conducted among a sample of 1495 Ontario voters and consumers. Our most recent survey found that Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) leads over the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) in terms of voter intent despite the PC’s official launch of their election policy platform (OLP 35%, PC’s 34%).


https://www.campaignresearch.ca/single-post/2017/12/08/liberals-lead-pcs-despite-people-guarantee

Poll: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VXcpOXroyxVURqlcGw3DrUCwYE_j8yNB/view

A few things to point out;
Campaign is last poll to show the OLP had a lead and it was surrounded by polls that had a PC double digit lead. They have also had the margin between the PCs and OLP much smaller than the other polls

So they are either genius or not.

Some points worth noting:

Toronto Represents 20.4% (25 out of 122) of ridings in Ontario yet Toronto represents 46% (591 of the 1278) of the decided sampling;

GTA is 330 and "Rest of Ontario" is 357;

If we consider the GTA all usual 905 Belt ridings we are again at 25 ridings out of 122 (20.4%) and the "Rest of Ontario" Represents 72 ridings out of 122 (59%)

There is a comment on the poll that states that:
"Regions have been weighted to reflect population proportions as per Statistics Canada"

I am not entirely sure if they are weighting for population or population per riding or whatever but its still an oddly constructed poll in terms of the sample as only 28% of your respondents come from the region where nearly 60% of the seats are.

What is also odd is the NDP polling so flat across all regions when we know that they have been polling very well in Northern Ontario over the past few years.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Campaign research seems to be a newer lesser known pollster , they'd had the pc's a few points lower than the others for some time and liberals much higher than forum's polls so I wouldn't read a lot into there poll claiming the 2 parties are tied . I'm not sure why they claim the liberals are in the lead ? when 1 % is within the margin of error so there tied

and as you point out they polled way too many voters in Toronto / 416 and not enough in the rest of Ontario . so the poll doesn't seem that reflective of the actual realities


there poll was also done around the same time as the last forum poll maybe a week later yet they have the pc's 6 % lower , ndp 4 % lower and liberals 11 % higher . although other polls have had the liberals as high as 35% so that number might be within reason but all other polls have had the pc's close to 40% for months now , campaign research is really the only pollster that's had them below 40%
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( this has to be the most delusionally liberal reporter in the entire province , anyways there is some interesting tidbits in this article , it doesn't appear she committed to a full term if re elected , she also talked about wanting to form a minority government with the help of the ndp , sort of odd to discuss this early , a sure sign the liberals don't expect to do as well as in the past and the only realistic scenario they see to stay in power in a possible minority situation with ndp )



The political resurrection of Premier Kathleen Wynne


A year ago the media peppered her with questions about stepping down. Today the media are asking if she will commit to a full term if re-elected.


Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne won't say how much longer she will remain in power if the Liberals win the June 7 election. In a year-end interview, Wynne went out of her way to project a path to re-election that would focus on fairness, Martin Regg Cohn writes.


By Martin Regg CohnOntario Politics Columnist

Tues., Dec. 19, 2017




A year ago — call it the ghost of Christmas past — the media peppered Kathleen Wynne with questions about stepping down early to spare her Liberals a humiliating defeat in the next election.

This week — perhaps the ghost of Christmas present — the media was instead demanding whether she’d commit to a full term, through 2022, if re-elected as premier.

Read more:

Wynne wants to ‘level the playing field’ for Ontarians

We can’t rely on any ghost of Christmas future to foretell the province’s political fate. But the mere fact that reporters had rephrased their questions to such an extent is perhaps a minor miracle for the premier whom many assumed would have given up the ghost by now.

In a series of year-end interviews Monday, Wynne wouldn’t tell the media how much longer she’d remain in power if her Liberals win next June 7. It’s still too early to take bets on a Wynne resurrection, but a premier who was given up for politically dead a year ago may now be in a dead heat, according to the more closely-watched public opinion polls.

Speaking to the Toronto Star in the corner office she has occupied since 2013, Wynne went out of her way to project a path to re-election that would focus on fairness amid economic uncertainty. Facing an unexpectedly centrist feint from the opposition Progressive Conservatives, who are vowing to more or less continue many Liberal programs they had previously criticized — from pharmacare to minimum wage increases — Wynne vowed to come out fighting in the new year with a distinctively progressive platform.

On Jan. 1, her government will implement a full youth pharmacare program covering Ontarians up to age 25. She wants Ottawa to bankroll an expansion for all adults nationally, but Wynne hinted at an Ontario-only program — much like her proposed provincial pension plan in the 2014 election — if federal funding “doesn’t happen” soon.



The premier wants her legacy to be about “social justice” but says she needs more time in government to leverage a strong economic recovery. While Ontario’s growth has led the industrialized world in recent years, and unemployment is at historic lows, the challenge of precarious work is rising.

Precarious employment could also be in Wynne’s personal political future.

If no party gains a majority in the next election, she hopes to form a minority government with support from the opposition New Democrats whose policies are more closely aligned. She cited their decision to prop up the Liberals from 2011-14, when the NDP wielded the balance of power.

“You would be in a precarious parliament, and so I think that you have to find a way to make it work,” Wynne mused in the interview. “No matter what the configuration, I will do everything to ensure that a progressive platform is implemented.”

That means expanding on recent progress in child care, pharmacare and dental care, while making “free tuition” even more accessible to postsecondary students. Wynne declined to divulge details of her upcoming campaign platform — likely to be unveiled in a spring pre-election budget — but said voters will soon get a taste of “the next pieces of our plan.”

Reflecting on the changing workplace, she said the party must also speak to displaced workers caught in recurring economic disruption. Government can provide more nimble support through education, but also through the basic income pilot her Liberals are testing for the working poor and people who jump from job to job.

“I have a deep belief that we don’t play on a level field, and so what can I do to level that playing field?” she said. “It’s our job as human beings to find ways to help each other, and so that for me is at the root of what government is about. We come together, and we decide as a society how we are going to support each other.”

And who gets to govern us.

Martin Regg Cohn’s political column appears Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday. mcohn@thestar.ca, Twitter: @reggcohn

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2017/12/19/the-political-resurrection-of-premier-kathleen-wynne-cohn.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

whats also interesting is she didn't say the party that wins the most seats should be allowed to form government ,

its clearly worded " if no party wins a majority " meaning even if the pc's win more seats than the liberals , she appears willing to try and form some sort of government with the help of the ndp ( which is what we saw in BC or if you look back in Ontario history happened in the 80's when there were some minorities )

if of course the ndp were at all interested in such a scenario which would clearly only be about saving her job
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you wish hard enough maybe it becomes a reality?
That seems to be the Stars approach.

If this was any other Province I would be suggesting the PC leader start measuring the Premiers office, but in Ontario who knows
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
If you wish hard enough maybe it becomes a reality?
That seems to be the Stars approach.

If this was any other Province I would be suggesting the PC leader start measuring the Premiers office, but in Ontario who knows



its a weird interview and article , the author only quotes the Campaign Research poll ( which we on here suggested was too heavily Toronto polled ) and ignores the other dozen or so polls that show her losing badly


it also seems really early to be suggesting a government with the ndp ? perhaps its an early indication of liberal strategy to try and win over soft ndp voters

but it comes off as rather desperate to have a majority and now be suggesting a weird minority situation with ndp , one some polls don't even say is possible , forum says the pc's will win a majority anyways
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( angus reid says wynne's approval has improved but only at 20% and she is still the least popular premier in Canada )


Ontario’s Wynne inches upward again this quarter, approved of by just one-in-five in Ontario


December 19, 2017 – Is it candy or coal in the stockings of Canada’s premiers this December? The latest quarterly analysis of polling data from the Angus Reid Institute shows that while some provincial leaders can sleep this week before Christmas with visions of sugarplums dancing in their heads, others are feeling the pinch of a Grinchy electorate.



Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne remains the least popular provincial leader in the country, though the picture is not as dire as it was earlier in the year. Wynne hit a low point of just 12 per cent approval in March, but appears to be climbing out of the depths. After confirming plans to raise the minimum wage to $14 at the beginning of 2018, and again to $15 in 2019, she sees a third consecutive quarterly rise, this time up 3 points to hold the approval of one-in-five Ontarians (20%). Wynne faces re-election in 2018.

http://angusreid.org/premier-approval-dec2017/
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

also wanted to mention , Wynne gave some year end /Christmas interviews , one was on tv for CTV and with Paul Bliss

wynne demonstrated once again that she is willing to say and do anything to remain premier . she turned a normally non-partisan holiday interview into a partisan pre election opportunity for press

she did this by meeting the reporter under the painting of "mike harris " at queens park ( which were suppose to believe was an accident ) and then using that as an opportunity for a partisan spin on her holiday message

like who would even think of turning the year end holiday interviews into a partisan opportunity to bash a former premier and opposition party , its just so evil I can't even recall something like this being done before

it shows once again how slick and how truly partisan wynne is , she clearly used these interviews as a chance to show that she isn't going down without a fight
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Wynne still canada's least popular premier new poll

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