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Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe, maybe, maybe, how will we ever know? It's all supposition. Let me throw my bit of supposition on the fire ...

I think Trudeau was elected on a vague distaste for Harper, particularly as polished by the expert in innuendo (later to be revealed a crass liar in the campaign itself), the collapse of the NDP base, and a momentary flash of enthusiasm because he looked so-oo good to the female eye, combined with the notion that ... yeah, he'd tolerate a little debt to get a little more dynamism in the economy.

As fast as his coalition materialized, that''s how fast it can dissipate. His support has always been soft, and he has not delivered. He should be considered low hanging fruit.

Here's where the issue of leadership comes out. Up until this point, Trudeau has had pretty much a free ride. The media give him most of his troubles, and that's because he's such a goof. They're basically on his side.

Conservative political leadership must either (1) strive to get the kind of hand-in-glove cooperation Mulcair had with the media; or (2) it must go around them.

The opposition's job is to get the public as much of the record as is necessary to hold the government accountable. But it is the public that decides to get rid of one government in favour of another.

Are they doing that? I watched a question period recently, where the Conservatives tried to get Trudeau to tell Parliament how many talks with the ethics commissioner he'd had. There's twenty minutes I'll never get back!

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2.....43804.html

A high point, obviously, but it illustrates the problem. This is not effective opposition.
One side is as bad as the other in this preposterous game. Parliament has been hollowed out, as an institution, and the MPs seem unaware. It has a remaining ritual significance, but the power is elsewhere.

And we have picked a leader from amongst our (mostly ineffectual) Parliamentary caucus. Do any of them have the media appeal of a Kevin O'Leary, who wants a role? Why are there not some invitations?

The task is ultimately one of public education and the rallying of public attitudes around a vision, a place we want to go, policy-wise. The left has a mission -- they want to solve the problem of want and make everybody happy. They pretend they can manage the economy to produce these results, but they are always being thwarted by the greedy, morally-deficient conservative types.

The Liberals are now just a faster and more reckless version of the NDP.

There is such a thing as diminishing returns, and we've been fixing the problem of poverty -- as 'want'is often called -- for all of my life, now, and they've long since done the obvious things. Philosophers now call our times "post-scarcity" because now you can pick the poor ones out in a crowd -- they're the fat ones. Still, the parties of the left yammer on about the needy, searching the earth for unsatisfied desires, to the point of accommodating LBGTQWERTY genders nonsense as social policy!

All the new left policies spring from exhausted, worn out, tired social ideas and most produce more unhappiness than happiness.

Why then are our opposition leaders so inept? Are there not more crucial issue to highlight than trying the embarrass Justin Trudeau? Why is it, while the winds of change swirl in torrents all through the USA and Europe, our politics are so petty, so irrelevant, and so far removed from the real choices that are going to confront us?

It's a failure of leadership -- and not just in the Conservative Party. We don't have that kind of leadership in general. That seems to be the sad fact. Perhaps it is a little early yet, but the signs are that are our most recent choice isn't going to change anything.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
after thinking about this some more , think what it tells me is not that the CPC is suddenly going to beat the liberals . more than the 2019 election is going to be more competitive than previously though . think many people had written off the opposition and seemingly given trudeau at least one more term . the cpc isn't going to be competitive in trudeau's Papineau riding or Morneau's Toronto centre seat but it does seem that seats like Kanata Carleton and Kilodan St Paul will be much closer in the future

but perhaps there is a % of the Canadian population saying not so fast , maybe this isn't what we want in a government ? perhaps after the broken promises on electoral reform , taxes , the bizarre castro comments and making Omar Khadr a millionaire . people are starting to get tired of this government and its celebrity leader

one interesting note not really discussed yet by anyone or any news articles , was that the forum poll had "millennial " support for the liberals way down , that was a main reason for there record turnout in 2015 and without it not likely to do as well .

but either way it does seem to indicate the next election will actually be very competitive and the conservative party needs to start getting prepared for that and should expect vicious and seemingly bizarre attacks on it from the desperate liberal government .
like the one we saw launched this week against cpc mp Rachel Harder , for supposedly being anti abortion ? even though there is no public record of her being a high profile anti abortion mp , they seem to have decided she is simply due to how she voted on a private members bill


Andrew Scheer is making an effort to go coast to coast;
He is getting out there which is all fine and good, but sooner or later as we get very close to being two years out from election day you are going to need to determine where you expect to win seats.

Scheer seems to be the darling of Western Canada;
Which is all fine and good but if he doesn't make an effort to become the darling or rural and suburban Ontario and Atlantic Canada all of these polls are for not.

We almost appear to be kicking back and waiting on the results of the NDP leadership race hoping that whomever comes out of there guts the Trudeau Millennial support level.

While its not a bad play politically, it shouldn't be your only play.

The Tories have momentum for the first time since Trudeau was elected leader of the Liberals its time to capitalizes on it.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We agree -- now is his time to show us his stuff.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a new angus reid poll has similar poor numbers for the liberals , there seems to be a growing % of people unhappy with the direction of this government )


45% of Canadians want change in government: Poll


Postmedia Network
Sep 28, 2017
, Last Updated: 1:47 PM ET


Maybe it was the Chewbacca socks.

Nearly half (45%) of Canadians say it’s time for a change when it comes to federal politics – a 15% increase over two years, according to recent polling conducted by Angus Reid.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s apparent slide in the polls comes months after his government settled a lawsuit with convicted terrorist Omar Khadr for $10.5 million and amid the government's announcement of its plan to alter how small businesses are taxed nationwide — a move that has drawn widespread condemnation from industry experts.

While Trudeau’s approval rating sits at 50% — 15 points down after peaking last year — only 24% of Canadians say the PM is “best suited” to deal with the economy. Meanwhile, 29% of Canadians believe Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer is best when it comes to the economy.

Additional good news for Scheer: More Canadians (36%) believe the Conservatives are the “best party” to lead compared to the Liberals (33%).

MORE FINDINGS

Which statement best reflects how you feel?

It’s time for a change in government: 45%

It’s not time for a change in government: 34%

Not sure: 22%

Do you approve or disapprove of Justin Trudeau?

Approve: 50%

Disapprove: 45%

Tell us which you think is the best party to form government:

Conservative Party of Canada: 36%

Liberal Party of Canada: 33%

Which of these leaders is best suited to deal with the economy?

Andrew Scheer (Conservative): 29%

Justin Trudeau (Liberal): 24%

Thomas Mulcair (NDP): 12%

None of these: 7%

Not sure: 24%

http://cnews.canoe.com/CNEWS/C.....55444.html
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

To save everyone else the trouble of digging up the PDF of the AR poll;

http://angusreid.org/wp-conten.....issues.pdf

My general take away;

Sample size is massive nearly 5500 folks, to put that in perspective the Forums poll that started this all was around 1400.

Where it gets interesting is page 13;
Polls showing the Tories gaining traction have almost entirely relied on a bump from Western Canada, yet here the Tories trail in BC but have a double digit lead in Ontario.

The CPC is still a dirty word in Atlantic Canada and are well behind the NDP and LPC in Quebec but significantly ahead of the BQ who are closer to falling into fifth behind the Greens than third ahead of the CPC.

The Prime Ministers approval rating lives in the 18-35 demographic and appears to be closing beyond that.

The "Economy" question is interesting because while the CPC is being smack around in Atlantic Canada, Scheer does better than Trudeau on this question in New Brunswick a former CPC stronghold.

While Healthcare (24%)Topped the most important Issues question;
Government Spending / Deficit (22%) and the Economy (22%) were tied for second, I would argue one is tied to the other but that is just commentary.

Breaking it down Provincially; Unemployment generally surpassed Government Spending as the number three issue in Atlantic Canada (CPC take note)
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are right, this is a much more significant poll. Was it taken off the internet? I hope they have a technique to randomize their sample.

I wonder if the two levels of Liberal Party aren't being conflated in Ontario, where the even more abominable Wynne government holds sway provincially.

There seems to have been a 15% sag in the public's esteem for the current Liberals. Two more years to go ... trend lines being what they are ... Justin is going to need some way to look good between now and then, or he's going to have sagged 25 to 30% from his high point. He looks vulnerable.

I don't think he knows how to do it. Nor does his team.
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a new ekos poll confirms the liberals fall from majority territory , they surveyed a massive amount of people almost 5000 and found the liberals and cpc essentially tied , expect the media to freak out for a while now that the forum poll has been confirmed to not be an outer )


Liberals, Conservatives statistically tied, NDP a distant third: poll


The poll puts the Liberals at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 33 per cent and the NDP at 15 per cent.



By The Canadian Press

Tues., Oct. 3, 2017



OTTAWA—A new poll conducted by Ekos Research and commissioned for The Canadian Press suggests the Liberals find themselves statistically tied with a resurgent Conservative Opposition.

The New Democrats — reeling from a disappointing 2015 campaign and lengthy leadership race — remain a distant third, driving home the political challenge confronting newly elected NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Ekos president Frank Graves says the numbers suggest the Liberals have finally come back to earth after enjoying a massive lead in public support after the 2015 election — an advantage they managed to maintain for more than a year.

The Ekos-Canadian Press poll, which puts the Liberals at 34 per cent, the Conservatives at 33 per cent and the NDP at 15 per cent, surveyed 4,839 people during the last two weeks of September, and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Graves says he believes the Liberals will be watching the Conservative numbers closely, as well as the NDP, which is likely to be targeting many of the progressive voters who supported Justin Trudeau’s party in 2015.


He also says the poll suggests that the Liberal government’s controversial tax reforms — criticized by opposition parties as well as many doctors, farmers and small business owners — are not having a significant impact among Liberal or potential Liberal voters.


https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/10/03/liberals-conservatives-statistically-tied-ndp-a-distant-third-poll.html
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Link to the poll for those interesting:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/in.....eadlocked/

Its always interesting how the Greens poll nearly 2% higher on EKOS polls than when compared to polls surrounding it from other pollsters.

I also love how EKOS asks questions;
Toward the end of the poll they comment that the changes to the tax structure are not harming the Liberals, then I look at the way the question was asked and I actually laughed out loud.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The takeaways from the EKOS poll;

The Liberals are still rock solid in Atlantic Canada;
I would love to see a New Brunswick specific poll on the matter, I would think that ridings like Fundy Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, and Tobique—Mactaquac at a minimum would be in play even of the rest of the ridings in Eastern Canada are not.

The Liberals being ahead in Manitoba is actually consistent with the 2015 results;
Alberta appears it could shed two of the four Liberal MPs

Ontario has the CPC slightly ahead (well within the MoE);
However there is roughly a 50 seat difference between the LPC and CPC in Ontario presently based on a 7-ish % difference in 2015 which means if you but the numbers you are looking at a CPC level of support in Ontario somewhere between 2006 and 2008; Which basically meant everywhere except the 905s and Northern Ontario.

In theory that's a 20 seat bump

The Liberals dominate in Quebec with the BQ and CPC basically 15% behind and the NDP already lagging in 4th in this poll they are closer to the Greens @ 10 than the BQ @ 20 and the CPC @ 19 with their 12.

19% is still better than the 16.7% the CPC secured in 2015, however it would likely still mean a loss of 4 - 6 seats as the NDP won't be splitting LPC vote in ridings like Beauport—Limoilou, Richmond—Arthabaska, and potentially Mégantic—L'Érable anymore.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The question is loaded with terms like "income sprinkling" for example, which are concepts that imply favouritism, rather than a straight-forward interpretation of tax regulations. Who's in favour of 'income sprinkling'?

They should have said what's at issue -- paying family members for work they do for a family enterprise. Then it's harder to say what's "fair". If the family member did the work, they should get paid, otherwise, they shouldn't. But it's the deductions we are talking about -- allowable or not. It's really a choice of who you want to be "ünfair" to.

But this is a big, expensive survey. The important figures to note is the changes in the way the same questions are answered over time. KIt doesn't give us that.

It looks like Conservative support has chiefly revived in Alberta where it'll bring no benefit. In the meantime, look at Quebec!

The Maritimes seems lost to Conservatives. They're Progressive Conservatives still. Quebec is the battleground where Conservatives have to contend. I sigh, why are the Conservatives so cold to Bernier? But that's becoming my theme.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Link to the poll for those interesting:
http://www.ekospolitics.com/in.....eadlocked/

Its always interesting how the Greens poll nearly 2% higher on EKOS polls than when compared to polls surrounding it from other pollsters.

I also love how EKOS asks questions;
Toward the end of the poll they comment that the changes to the tax structure are not harming the Liberals, then I look at the way the question was asked and I actually laughed out loud.



I haven't had time to look thru the entire poll but one thing that comes to mind is this poll reminds us of the kinds of numbers we saw back in 2015 or later . back when the cpc and liberals were polling closer to each other .

the liberals also have a huge lead in terms of seats as they have a majority , obviously if an election were held and these were the numbers they'd be luck to maintain a large minority , so the question is what seats exactly are coming back into play again and appear to be difficult ones for the liberals to hold onto ?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cosmo felt that the shift since the last election would give the Conservatives about 20 more seats -- in other words, the Conservatives would go from 95 to 115 seats, and that would make the Liberals close to a minority government, dependent on NDP support.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:


the liberals also have a huge lead in terms of seats as they have a majority , obviously if an election were held and these were the numbers they'd be luck to maintain a large minority , so the question is what seats exactly are coming back into play again and appear to be difficult ones for the liberals to hold onto ?


Best guess?

Ontario:

Kanata—Carleton
Nepean
Hastings—Lennox and Addington
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
Bay of Quinte
Newmarket—Aurora
Northumberland—Peterborough South
Peterborough—Kawartha
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill
King—Vaughan
Markham—Stouffville
Richmond Hill
Whitby
Oakville
Oakville North—Burlington
Burlington
St. Catharines
Cambridge
Kitchener South—Hespeler
Essex
London-West

Western Canada:

Regina—Lewvan
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Mill Woods
Calgary Centre
Calgary Skyview
Kootenay—Columbia


But keeping in mind the numbers likely represent the Tories losing 5 - 6 seats in Quebec and potentially two in BC
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 9:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

LPC: 34.4
CPC: 33.3

MoE: 1.4

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp....._2017a.pdf

LPC: 37
CPC: 36

MoE: 2.5

http://angusreid.org/new-ndp-leader-jagmeet-singh/

LPC: 35
CPC: 35

MoE: 2.5

http://angusreid.org/wp-conten.....idterm.pdf

Its been a rough October for the LPC
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at the data, the CPC has a long way to go.

While Fortress West is looking good once again;
Ontario and Atlantic Canada need to be focuses moving forward.

The approach to 2019 almost writes itself.
On nearly every issue pertaining to the Economy the Liberals are not polling well, the CPC needs to capitalize on that.
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Conservatives would beat Libs: Poll

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