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RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6540
Reputation: 235.3
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
Burlington to the Border of Toronto along the QEW;
Burlington, Oakville, Oakville North—Burlington, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga—Streetsville, Mississauga—Erin Mills, Mississauga—Malton, Mississauga East—Cooksville, and Mississauga East Centre there are a few new seats but in those current boundaries you have no current PC MPPs

Basically nine seats one way then you go the other way through Hamilton you have seven ridings before you come across your first PC MPPs in Niagara West—Glanbrook.

The West 905s are usually the ridings that swing wildly to the party in power;
All of Mississauga was CPC in 2011 and all of it was LPC in 2015.

The party that forms government almost always has to have strength in this area in order to win and has been the challenging area for the PCs since Mike Harris.



historically the pc's did well in this area , if polling continues at its current trend , they shouldn't have any trouble regaining many of there lost seats In this region .

some of these ridings had almost always been pc , I believe Burlington had never been liberal provincially ever until there surprise win in 2014 .
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6540
Reputation: 235.3
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The abiding shamelessness of the Ontario Liberals

iPolitics Insights


Martin Patriquin


Wednesday, October 4th, 2017


Is there a more cynical government in the country than Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals?

This isn’t an entirely rhetorical question. Governments are made up of people who want to get re-elected, and they tend to go squirrelly in the face of chronic unpopularity and a looming election. A quick scan of the provinces suggests both of these conditions exist in only one place right now.

In New Brunswick, the Liberals are decently ahead in the lead-up to the election next fall. Same thing goes in Quebec — though I expect things to go south fairly quickly as the opposition continues to take advantage of Philippe Couillard’s lethargy and general ineptitude.

Rachel Notley’s NDP government is trailing in the polls, but with Alberta’s next election expected in 2019, she has the luxury of time. It’s much the same in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, P.E.I., Newfoundland and Nova Scotia. In all cases, elections are still far over the horizon. (British Columbia, the stage for a teetering coalition Gong Show, doesn’t count.)

This leaves only Ontario, where Wynne’s long lag in the polls, coupled with an election in ten months’ time, has stirred panic in Liberal ranks. Her personal approval rating hit a low of 12 per cent last March and has remained in the cellar since.

An ongoing bribery scandal involving two top Liberal operatives drags on, with Wynne herself suffering the indignity of having to testify last month. A large number of cabinet ministers have either left or have said they won’t seek re-election. Even the Toronto Star, that always-reliable Liberal echo chamber, is beginning to wake up to the fact that Wynne is very likely to lose in June 2018.

open quote 761b1bThe caustic effects of the minimum wage hike could be mitigated by, say, extending the increase over a greater period — but that’s not the point.

Somehow, though, Wynne remains firmly in place, with little sign that she’ll abdicate before the election. No doubt this is due, in part, to hubris; she was quite unpopular in 2014 but she easily won that particular tussle, if only because her opponent, Tim Hudak, campaigned like a man constructed of equal parts Pablum and wood chips. And since the Liberals have governed Ontario since 2003, you can almost forgive them for believing in their own infallibility.

Yet there is something else at work — something as predictable as it is cynical. Instead of wooing Ontario with her personal charm, the Liberals will instead rely on the provincial purse strings to coax votes from a recalcitrant public.

Last month, the Wynne government announced an increase in the province’s minimum wage, from $11.40 to $15 in January 2019. This increase, amounting to over 31 per cent in less than three years, is by far the largest in the province’s recent history. The effects of such a dramatic increase over such a short period of time are open to question. Ontario’s non-partisan Financial Accountability Office estimates the increase could result in the loss of 50,000 jobs and “would be an inefficient policy tool for reducing overall poverty.”

The caustic effects of the minimum wage hike could be mitigated by, say, extending the increase over a greater period — but that’s not the point. Increasing the minimum wage is a bumper sticker initiative designed specifically to strengthen the Liberal’s monopoly on virtue in time for the election. Stretching out the increases over a longer time would rob it of its political potency.

The minimum wage hike is a brilliant move because it neutralizes Wynne’s opposition on the left — and enrages the right. Meanwhile, if you argue against its timing, or question Wynne’s own motivations behind it, you’re suddenly an enemy of the province’s working poor. Do you hate motherhood and pussycats too, Genghis Khan?

The minimum wage hike is the latest example of the Liberal tradition of well-timed and seemingly virtuous announcements. In 2011, the party announced the cancellation of two gas-powered electrical generating stations. The ostensible reason — the environment, stupid — masked the real motivation: Normally reliable Liberal voters in Oakville, where one of the gas plants was to be located, got a case of NIMBYism and threatened to defect to the opposition. Oakville quickly fell into line, and the Liberals eked out a victory.

The same virtuous cynicism seems to be working for Wynne. Internal party polls, obtained by the Canadian Press in August, suggest Wynne’s minimum wage gambit, her government’s hydro bill cuts and its rent control policy are all overwhelmingly popular with Ontario’s hoi polloi — even though Wynne herself isn’t. Expect Wynne to cleave even further left in the coming months, to nibble just enough support away from the hapless Ontario NDP.

And expect a slight refrain of the 2014 election, where Wynne is portrayed as working on the side of the angels — while her opponent, Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, is presented as a cold-hearted, mouth-breathing social conservative bent on persecuting the province’s most vulnerable.

After all, it’s worked so many times before.


http://ipolitics.ca/2017/10/04.....-liberals/
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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votes: 21
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:


And expect a slight refrain of the 2014 election, where Wynne is portrayed as working on the side of the angels — while her opponent, Progressive Conservative leader Patrick Brown, is presented as a cold-hearted, mouth-breathing social conservative bent on persecuting the province’s most vulnerable.

After all, it’s worked so many times before.


http://ipolitics.ca/2017/10/04.....-liberals/


Its funny because its true;
Social Conservatives and Patrick Brown have certainly had their issues;
Yet to the Urban Centers Brown is marketed by the opposition and the media as a firm social conservative.

Its amazing the way he is painted depending on the constituency.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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votes: 8

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amazing? Or predictable?

I think what you are saying is that the media will twist their reports to maximize the damage to Conservatives. But Conservatives, by catering to the media definitions, does it too. Why don't we just call social conservatives "a basket of deplorables"?

What is the problem with social conservatives? In today's context, they deserve a place at the table. First of all, we aren't talking about a woman's right to kill the life that grows within her.

We are now talking about a program of sexual education that has been accused of "grooming" young people for homosexuality by confusing them about gender.

I imagine almost all parents are concerned about this, or remain in the dark, stupidly trusting educational officials. And the officials are not going to explain to a basket of deplorables. That's for sure.

But why is the Progressive Conservative party turning their back on them? How does this make good politics? Is Brown banking on seats in the inner city of Toronto? Good luck with that.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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votes: 21
Location: The World

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think that Brown is going after Social Conservatives as hard as the advertising would imply, I am not as remotely convinced of his "progressive-ism" as been touted.

When Brown ran as leader he was "attacked" as a social conservative;
And based on his Federal Voting Record, I can understand why.

He will be sold as a Pro Life Neanderthal in Urban Ridings and sold as a "Progressive" Liberal in Conservative Clothing in Rural ridings.

For a guy who has almost no formal policy and won't till November when all ridings have a seat at the table at the policy convention, he sure seems to be firmly defined in the eyes of the media.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 4285
Reputation: 242.6
votes: 8

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know you're right, so far as Brown's personal convictions are concerned, and I also realize that there's nothing that unifies women more than the fear that they won't be able to kill their unborn children free, at government expense, into the future.

But the issues of social conservatism have moved way beyond that, and the people, in general, were never asked about something as fundamental as gender. This seems to me to be more akin to a physical assault on the children, or at least a form of child abuse. I mean that in the sense that this 'education' is going to seriously confuse some kids and leave them, at 25, wishing they hadn't had their dick cut off.

It's like Progressive Conservatives are part of a conspiracy of silence on the subject.


Last edited by Bugs on Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6540
Reputation: 235.3
votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
I don't think that Brown is going after Social Conservatives as hard as the advertising would imply, I am not as remotely convinced of his "progressive-ism" as been touted.

When Brown ran as leader he was "attacked" as a social conservative;
And based on his Federal Voting Record, I can understand why.

He will be sold as a Pro Life Neanderthal in Urban Ridings and sold as a "Progressive" Liberal in Conservative Clothing in Rural ridings.

For a guy who has almost no formal policy and won't till November when all ridings have a seat at the table at the policy convention, he sure seems to be firmly defined in the eyes of the media.



the media ? they barely seem to pay any attention to him , they barely show him on the news , some newscasts even go as far as to refer to Andrea Horwath as the opposition leader


but as the title of posts indicates the polling in Ontario is all being driven by wynne's personal numbers being so horrible , there hasn't been a premier with personal numbers that low that I can recall . so the opposition hasn't had to do a lot to see a boost in the polls

in desperation wynne now wants to reopen old divisive social issues , first up appears to be abortion with a plan to ban protests at abortion clinics ( I personally suspect they have already been told by lawyers that it would legally be challenging to ban someone from protesting something due to various charter rights and freedom of speech laws especially if the protest took place on public property , but either way she has decided to push forward )
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