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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At this point you may as well ride with Wynne.

The next election is around nine months away which means Parliament is dissolved at least 30 days prior which brings you into May 2018 and even a lightspeed leadership convention takes three to four months which plunks a new leader smack into February 2018 of which Parliament does not sit till the 20th of coupled with a week off in March the new Premier would have seven legislating weeks before the election.

If you are a leadership contender within the OLP you are better off fighting like heck to retain your seat, keeping your fiscal powder dry, and being able to run a proper leadership campaign should the OLP lose in June.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
At this point you may as well ride with Wynne.

The next election is around nine months away which means Parliament is dissolved at least 30 days prior which brings you into May 2018 and even a lightspeed leadership convention takes three to four months which plunks a new leader smack into February 2018 of which Parliament does not sit till the 20th of coupled with a week off in March the new Premier would have seven legislating weeks before the election.

If you are a leadership contender within the OLP you are better off fighting like heck to retain your seat, keeping your fiscal powder dry, and being able to run a proper leadership campaign should the OLP lose in June.


whats interesting is that many liberal mpp's are actually still planning to run again , so far 5 aren't but is a bunch who have been nominated and a lot in really vulnerable ridings . many in seats the liberals won for the first time in 2014 and hadn't won in years past .

ridings like Burlington , Cambridge , Newmarket Aurora , the mpp's for Durham and Beaches East York also plan to run again . but they face an uphill climb and if there were by elections in these ridings now its pretty obvious they lose the way things are today . I'd personally be surprised if any of these seats are still liberal after june 2018 , the way things look now
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 13, 2017 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
RCO wrote:
wynne is finally testifying at the long awaited Sudbury bribery trial , not sure if anything is going to come out or not .

but you have to wonder at what point does wynne realise its over ?

is it when she's testifying at a bribery trial ?

at least 5 of her mpp's aren't even going to run again , not counting the 3 who have left mid term

her personal approval ratings are dismal and some polls have the liberals in 3rd

she lost by elections in 2 of the liberals previously safest seats , scarborough rogue river and sault ste marie

I can't honeslty believe her own caucus hasn't revolted by now and tried to toss her out , maybe when she comes back from Sudbury she'll find the caucus door locked ? who knows


I think she knows. If she runs a campaign where she's kept isolated from the crowds, you can bet she not only knows, but she is consciously building a shit-storm for Patrick Brown to deal with -- like taking away the $15/hr minimum wage.

But the other side can always make a mistake.

As for her caucus ... are they better off with her or without her? They are mostly meaningless hangers-on. If you were a 30-something lawyer looking for a steady gig in politics, would you be looking at the Liberals or the Progressive Conservatives right now? Most people want to be in on these things at the start, not at the end. These are the culls of the pretty dim group that was left when Dalton left town. No more Dwight McDonalds, no more Peppitellos, no more Jim Bradleys. Put it this way: these are the ones that were outshone by George Smitherman.



obviously there will be some sort of smear campaign launched at the Ontario pc party , that's the way its been since 2003 , every election some rediclous accusation is created and used to smear the party and often paid for thru union attack ads . although I'm not sure if there still allowed to run ads as they changed the rules for 3rd parties but either way there will be some sort of attack against the opposition and its likely to be extremely desperate

I'd also suspect if your a liberal mpp who could possibly hold your own riding based on your local profile , the last person you want to drop by and campaign for you is wynne . she'll likely visit places of no importance or major cities , don't expect her in the key swing ridings that much if her numbers stay low
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 6:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

News Ontario


Wynne to Brown: Retract or face legal action


The Canadian Press

First posted: Wednesday, September 13, 2017 10:30 AM EDT | Updated: Wednesday, September 13, 2017 10:44 AM EDT



Premier Kathleen Wynne is asking the leader of the Opposition to retract comments he made about her or face legal action.

Wynne is testifying as a witness on Wednesday in a trial in Sudbury for two former Liberal staffers who are facing bribery charges under the Election Act.

A letter filed today by Wynne’s lawyers says Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown told reporters Tuesday that Wynne was standing trial in the bribery case.

The letter goes on to say that Wynne is not on trial or even under investigation, but is rather offering voluntary testimony and co-operating with the court process.

It also demands Brown retract and apologize for the remarks just as another Conservative member of the provincial legislature — Bill Walker — did last week after being issued a similar legal notice.

Walker told a local radio station Wynne was under investigation and facing charges in connection with the bribery trial. Days later, he went back on the air to correct the statement and apologize for the remarks.

Brown’s office did not contest the leader’s remarks, but said he immediately tried to clarify them when speaking to the media. A more detailed response from Brown is expected later today.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017.....gal-action
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Brown actually said she was on trial, it was just stupid. He shouldn't be any part of this story. Does he think he makes it better by making the charges he did, even if they were true? Let people look at the evidence for themselves.

But he may not have been the one who said it. It might have been Bill Walker, a PC MP.

Quote:
... MPP Bill Walker has apologized for suggesting Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne was facing criminal charges during an appearance on AM640’s The Morning Show.

Walker appeared on the show Tuesday to discuss how schools are being affected by Toronto’s condo boom. During the interview, co-host Supriya Dwivedi asked Walker about what it means for Ontario to have the premier testify at the trial.

Quote:
“At the end of the day, whether you’re the premier or who you are, if you’ve done things inappropriately, if you’ve broken the law, then you need to pay the price,” he said.

“I hope what will happen at the end of this trial, one of four that say she’s up on charges for will hopefully shed some light on the situation and if she’s found to be guilty, then I think she has to do the honourable thing and step down.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/3723.....een-wynne/


Even I have difficulty in sloshing too much blame on Wynne over this because I suspect that any of the parties would essentially do the same thing. The law is probably unenforceable because we have so few judges with the character to convict cases like this when there is so much political influence in the air.

As I understand it, the offers made to Olivieri were not bribes because the premier had already decided (privately) to guzzle the crippled candidate's dreams, and we know this because the premier tells us that it is so. (She also told us moving the gas-fired plants only cost us $100 million or so.)

Is there even a scrap of corroborating evidence? Had anyone told the victim, at the time they started to put the skids under his candidacy, for instance? Had she ordered someone else to tell him? Was there an entry in her organizer?

I doubt it. No mention of it in the media.

But these kinds of shenanigans are going on in all parties (probably) as they head into every election. Can we be honest? There should be no law concerning these things simply because no law can be enforced in a reliable way. It will either make our leaders more devious, encouraging them to hide even more from us, or it will test the integrity of the courts, never a good idea if you want to avoid disillusionment.

The big question: how did this get into court in the first place? What's wrong with the OPP, or the Crown? Let your imagination contemplate the politics involved, the calculations made by management, when they press this case. Will this hurt me? Maybe it'll help me with the new gang? -- thoughts of those kind, at a minimum, must figure in. How about revenge ... maybe somebody with juice wants to kick the bitch as she loses power.

If we know from the start, or ought to know from the start that this trial is part of a political knife-fight, a broken-hearted but determined guy who's achieved a lot is just plain being used by a political party. That's one of the hazards of modern life.

I feel for Olivieri, but -- it's one of those things, like there's only two sexes, sorry. The trial is his revenge. He will lose. Political leaders get to choose the candidates they want, bottom line. Dem's da breaks.

If the word of the Premier is to be taken as the plain truth, as evidence, then how can the Crown proceed to trial? This is such an obvious move that surely a Crown would anticipate it, at least (s)he would if (s)he were worth half the money (s)he's being paid. The defense is a sophistry -- it's obvious that the there are incentives being discussed, and that the accused are acting as Wynne's and the Liberal Party's agents. It wouldn't be such a stretch, in a rational world, to see Wynne in the docket. The interpretations turn routine bribery of this sort into a ritual. It's one of those 'crimes' that becomes OK if you do it right.

In fact, these little 'bribes' are, and have been the very stuff of brokered politics.

This is why we have elections. The people have to rule on the Liberals in the next election. What Olivieri has to understand is that his Court case was advanced by his unfortunate condition, and it probably wasn't his condition that caused him to be treated so shabbily. He's caught in the mill of the gods, which grind fine. The leader wanted the other guy, and (obviously) delivered on a cabinet seat that may have been 'promised' without there being any evidence of a promise being made. And Olivieri is supposed to take the seat on a commission, and perhaps a perk or two, becoming the Ontario Liberals' go-to-guy on wheelchair accessibility.

Maybe he could have gotten one of those new marijuana franchises and be a front-man for medical reefer.
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

'Chaos' after Thibeault announcement

By Harold Carmichael, The Sudbury Star
First posted: Thursday, September 14, 2017 08:26 PM EDT | Updated: Thursday, September 14, 2017 09:51 PM EDT




The day NDP MP Glenn Thibeault announced he was resigning to run as the Liberal candidate in the 2015 provincial byelection in Sudbury is one Darrell Marsh will never forget.

“People came in yelling,” the former part-time constituency office employee testified Thursday about what happened Dec. 16, 2014. “I remember people telling me off and taking it out on me.

“I remember seeing people crying, people who had worked hard for the NDP. There was a lot of chaos that happened that day and the next day. We talked to lots of people. They were upset. We had to shut the office down a little bit early because we couldn’t take it. It was pretty tense.”

Marsh was testifying at the bribery trial of Sudbury businessman and Liberal fundraiser Gerry Lougheed Jr. and Patricia Sorbara, former deputy chief of staff in Wynne’s office. They have pleaded not guilty.

Lougheed is facing one count and Sorbara two. They’re accused of offering would-be candidate Andrew Olivier a job or appointment to get him to step aside for Thibeault, Wynne’s preferred candidate.

Marsh indicated he had worked in the office since November 2012 and upon hearing of Thibeault’s announcement, began thinking about his future.

Out of loyalty to Thibeault, he decided to quit and work as a volunteer on his election campaign.

“During (New Democrat Joe) Cimino’s campaign (in the June 20, 2014, provincial election), when I was fired, Glenn stood up for me and really showed me a lot of respect,” he said. “You don’t know me, sir (to prosecutor David McKercher). I’m not really someone who will interrupt a meeting and stand up, but I spoke up and spoke my mind.

“It was the right thing to do at the time. Glenn was a good person and a good employer. I decided not to stay with the NDP. I didn’t have a good relationship with them.”

Marsh said he was paid a $2,000 honourarium for his “professional consulting services” with the five-week campaign after Thibeault made some inquiries, and then landed a full-time constituency office job after Thibeault won the election.

In November 2016, Marsh left for a new job.

Marsh said he knew late in 2014 that Thibeault was in the midst of making a major decision.

“I know that he said he did it for his family,” recalled Marsh. “I did say to Glenn ‘whatever you do, I support you.’ I know he had a decision to make.”

Marsh said working in the Thibeault campaign was an unusual situation.

“I was well aware the switch factor was a major factor,” he said. “People were upset. There was a lot of stuff going on.”

Full-time constituency office worker Brian Band, meanwhile, testified he had a very similar experience to Marsh. Having once worked with Thibeault in radio (in fact, he was Thibeault’s boss), he joined the Thibeault office in 2009.

When asked if, in late 2014, he knew Thibeault planned to leave the NDP, Band said he had a strong inkling something was coming down.

“I know he had an issue with Mr. (Thomas) Mulcair, the NDP leader, in his role as caucus chair,” said Band. “I don’t think that he was happy at all. We had team meetings and things were discussed and stuff.”

As for when he learned Thibeault was considering leaving the NDP to run for the Liberals in the Sudbury byelection, Band said he did not know, only that his employer was mulling it over.

“Just that it was a tough decision for him to make, for him and his family,” said Band. “I remember him speaking about the decision. He had to respect all the factors.”

Band said he did not know what his future would be if Thibeault left.

“I made a tough decision to leave the federal office,” he said. “He was my friend, so, I decided to go and work in the campaign. That was as Christmastime ... Glenn was honest with me. He made a tough decision. He didn’t try to pressure me one way or another.”

Band said that in the days after Thibeault’s announcement, there was confusion.

“The office was in disarray,” he said. “I didn’t know what was going. The Speaker of the House (of Commons) was running the office.”

As was the case with Marsh, Band said Thibeault was able to get him some money for his work in the campaign, the cheque coming to $2,800.

After the election, Band said Thibeault offered him a job as in his constituency office and he accepted.

Band left the constituency office last June and is now semi-retired.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017.....nouncement
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
If Brown actually said she was on trial, it was just stupid. He shouldn't be any part of this story. Does he think he makes it better by making the charges he did, even if they were true? Let people look at the evidence for themselves.

But he may not have been the one who said it. It might have been Bill Walker, a PC MP.

Quote:
... MPP Bill Walker has apologized for suggesting Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne was facing criminal charges during an appearance on AM640’s The Morning Show.

Walker appeared on the show Tuesday to discuss how schools are being affected by Toronto’s condo boom. During the interview, co-host Supriya Dwivedi asked Walker about what it means for Ontario to have the premier testify at the trial.

Quote:
“At the end of the day, whether you’re the premier or who you are, if you’ve done things inappropriately, if you’ve broken the law, then you need to pay the price,” he said.

“I hope what will happen at the end of this trial, one of four that say she’s up on charges for will hopefully shed some light on the situation and if she’s found to be guilty, then I think she has to do the honourable thing and step down.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/3723.....een-wynne/


Even I have difficulty in sloshing too much blame on Wynne over this because I suspect that any of the parties would essentially do the same thing. The law is probably unenforceable because we have so few judges with the character to convict cases like this when there is so much political influence in the air.

As I understand it, the offers made to Olivieri were not bribes because the premier had already decided (privately) to guzzle the crippled candidate's dreams, and we know this because the premier tells us that it is so. (She also told us moving the gas-fired plants only cost us $100 million or so.)

Is there even a scrap of corroborating evidence? Had anyone told the victim, at the time they started to put the skids under his candidacy, for instance? Had she ordered someone else to tell him? Was there an entry in her organizer?

I doubt it. No mention of it in the media.

But these kinds of shenanigans are going on in all parties (probably) as they head into every election. Can we be honest? There should be no law concerning these things simply because no law can be enforced in a reliable way. It will either make our leaders more devious, encouraging them to hide even more from us, or it will test the integrity of the courts, never a good idea if you want to avoid disillusionment.

The big question: how did this get into court in the first place? What's wrong with the OPP, or the Crown? Let your imagination contemplate the politics involved, the calculations made by management, when they press this case. Will this hurt me? Maybe it'll help me with the new gang? -- thoughts of those kind, at a minimum, must figure in. How about revenge ... maybe somebody with juice wants to kick the bitch as she loses power.

If we know from the start, or ought to know from the start that this trial is part of a political knife-fight, a broken-hearted but determined guy who's achieved a lot is just plain being used by a political party. That's one of the hazards of modern life.

I feel for Olivieri, but -- it's one of those things, like there's only two sexes, sorry. The trial is his revenge. He will lose. Political leaders get to choose the candidates they want, bottom line. Dem's da breaks.

If the word of the Premier is to be taken as the plain truth, as evidence, then how can the Crown proceed to trial? This is such an obvious move that surely a Crown would anticipate it, at least (s)he would if (s)he were worth half the money (s)he's being paid. The defense is a sophistry -- it's obvious that the there are incentives being discussed, and that the accused are acting as Wynne's and the Liberal Party's agents. It wouldn't be such a stretch, in a rational world, to see Wynne in the docket. The interpretations turn routine bribery of this sort into a ritual. It's one of those 'crimes' that becomes OK if you do it right.

In fact, these little 'bribes' are, and have been the very stuff of brokered politics.

This is why we have elections. The people have to rule on the Liberals in the next election. What Olivieri has to understand is that his Court case was advanced by his unfortunate condition, and it probably wasn't his condition that caused him to be treated so shabbily. He's caught in the mill of the gods, which grind fine. The leader wanted the other guy, and (obviously) delivered on a cabinet seat that may have been 'promised' without there being any evidence of a promise being made. And Olivieri is supposed to take the seat on a commission, and perhaps a perk or two, becoming the Ontario Liberals' go-to-guy on wheelchair accessibility.

Maybe he could have gotten one of those new marijuana franchises and be a front-man for medical reefer.



I don't understand why anyone cares what Brown said or didn't say about Wynne , either way she was the first sitting premier to appear at a trial involving her own government

could you imagine if it had been Mike Harris or Ernie Eves doing the same ? the media coverage against the pc 's would of been brutal and much worse than the amount of coverage wynne got for her testimony

even though wynne herself is not on trial , her former ? chief of staff is and she worked in wynne's office and was very closely connected to her . at some point people need to realise wynne was around and close by when these decisions were made , the bribery accusations and gas plant emails being deleted , she can't get by with I didn't know , she was literally rate there and nearby
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
If Brown actually said she was on trial, it was just stupid. He shouldn't be any part of this story. Does he think he makes it better by making the charges he did, even if they were true? Let people look at the evidence for themselves.


Agreed 100%
The OLP doesn't need any help at the moment in looking at least somewhat questionable ethically.

The PCs don't need to connect the dots for voters;
There are two trials on-going at the exact same time that involve the OLP in some manner.

Just kick back and see what shakes out.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the pc's have apparently launched some attack ads against the liberals )


Tories unleash attack ads on ‘untrustworthy’ Wynne


Released last week, the U.S.-style spot features a grim-faced premier against a red and black backdrop as an ominous true-crime soundtrack plays.



By Robert BenzieQueen's Park Bureau Chief

Wed., Sept. 20, 2017




The Progressive Conservatives have unleashed a new attack ad against “untrustworthy” Premier Kathleen Wynne that accuses the governing Liberals of being corrupt.

Released last week, the U.S.-style spot features a grim-faced Wynne against a red and black backdrop as an ominous true-crime soundtrack plays.

Complete with sound effects reminiscent of jail cell doors being clanked shut, the ad splashes headlines critical of the Liberals from the Star and other news outlets.

“Kathleen Wynne is untrustworthy,” intones the male narrator in the 30-second commercial that is airing on numerous channels in prime time and on CP24 around the clock.

“The Liberal party is politically corrupt. From the gas-plant rip-off and eHealth billions to their cash-for-access fundraising scheme,” he continues.


That’s a reference to former premier Dalton McGuinty’s decision to cancel two gas-fired power plants in Oakville and Mississauga before the 2011 election, problems at the electronic health records agency, and political fundraising changes triggered by a Star probe last year.


Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne is featured in a a newly-launched Tory attack ad. Liberal Deputy Premier Deb Matthews said that the Tory ads coincide with Tory Leader Patrick Brown's controversial comments about the premier's appearance in a Sudbury court this week.

Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne is featured in a a newly-launched Tory attack ad. Liberal Deputy Premier Deb Matthews said that the Tory ads coincide with Tory Leader Patrick Brown's controversial comments about the premier's appearance in a Sudbury court this week. (Sean Kilpatrick / THE CANADIAN PRESS)


“Now the premier is testifying at a bribery trial. Just imagine what’s next,” says the narrator.

“Kathleen Wynne will say anything to get elected. You can’t trust her or them ever again.”


While the ad boasts a small Ontario PC logo, there is no mention of Tory Leader Patrick Brown or the fact that the next election is on June 7, 2018.

Wynne is threatening to sue Brown for defamation after he incorrectly claimed on Sept. 12 that she was on “trial” in the Sudbury byelection bribery case.

On the eve of her taking the stand as a Crown witness, the Tory leader said Ontario had “a sitting premier sitting in trial” and that she “stands trial.”

But Patricia Sorbara, the premier’s former deputy chief of staff, and Liberal activist Gerry Lougheed are on trial — not Wynne — for alleged Election Act violations related to the 2015 byelection. Both deny any wrongdoing.

Deputy Premier Deb Matthews expressed concern Wednesday that the Tory ad spots coincided with his controversial comments about the premier.

“It is looking like this is part of a strategy — a very unsavory strategy based on a lie,” said Matthews.

“He knows he said something that was false and then he runs these ads, which came out immediately after,” she said.

Brown insisted the advertising had nothing to do with his statement about Wynne.

“That’s a leap and a stretch — it’s not a reality,” he told the Star, adding he will continue to ignore the premier’s “baseless legal threat.”

The PC leader also defended the hard-hitting TV spots, which are airing as the criminal trial of two top ex-McGuinty aides — David Livingston and Laura Miller — continues Friday. They have pleaded not guilty.

“We’re going to continue to have an assortment of ads. Some of them will be about my approach and some, frankly, will be about the Liberal legacy — the record after 14 long years,” said Brown.

“Obviously there’s a lot of scandals that swirl around this government.”

In contrast to gauzy commercials featuring the leader released earlier this year, the attack ads do not appear on the Ontario PC YouTube channel.

Last January, the Tories launched a multi-million dollar blitz of commercials aimed at introducing Brown to voters.

One featured the mother of an autistic child praising him for his advocacy; another had him discussing hydro rates; and a third featured him discussing how he overcame a childhood stutter.

They followed up those ads with others that showed Brown marching in Toronto’s Pride parade


https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2017/09/20/tories-unleash-attack-ads-on-untrustworthy-wynne.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This threat of a lawsuit is just a way to rock Patrick Brown back on his heels. They have put the media spotlight back on Brown, leaving him answering uestions. It ought to be Wynne answering the questions.

The article, itself, is full of ambiguities. Doesn't one of the charges involving wiping hard-drives clean to prevent the police from getting the e-mail evidence of something rotten about the gas plants?

Did Brown actually say the offending words? It isn't clear whether it was Brown or Bill Walker. There was a day when the Toronto Star, a former newspaper, would have clarified those details, instead of muddying them.

Blast on with the ads. That's how it's done these days, in what's left of our crumbling political culture. The days of reasoned appeals and soaring rhetoric belong in another century. The law suit has nothing to do with political free speech.
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( the numbers keep getting worse for wynne , according to forum 44 pc , 27 ndp only 22 liberal )


PC party leading in Ontario: Forum Research poll

By Liz Braun, Toronto Sun
First posted: Saturday, September 30, 2017 10:43 AM EDT


Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are in trouble.

A new Forum Research poll shows the Progressive Conservatives strengthening their lead over both the NDP and Liberals in Ontario.

Despite a slight dip in popularity in August, Patrick Brown’s PCs are leading in five of the province’s six regions; they are tied with the Liberals in Toronto, which is bad news for the Ontario Liberal Caucus.

Were an election to be held tomorrow, it would be Brown’s to lose — current polling numbers give Brown and the Progressive Conservatives an 84 seat majority and the NDP as official opposition with 26 seats.

Predictions put the Liberals at 12 seats.

Of course, the election is not for another nine months and various elements, including campaign promises, might alter those numbers.

But as Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, points out, “As the election grows nearer, every month with a PC lead means it’s more likely the vote is solidifying behind Brown.”

Or solidifying away from Wynne.

Some read the current polls as more a measure of Wynne’s unpopularity than a show of support for any other party.

Patrick Brown is still an unknown quantity for many in the province and isn’t particularly popular otherwise with a 30% disapproval rate. There’s also ongoing scuffling within the PC ranks over his leadership.

The NDP’s Andrea Horwath is the most popular provincial leader.

Forum Research polled 801 Ontario voters for these results, which are considered accurate within 3%, 19 times out of 20.


http://www.torontosun.com/2017.....in-ontario
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PCs Hold Clear Lead in Every Region but Toronto, where they're tied

September 30, 2017 @ 6:00 AM | Filed under: Ontario


CC image courtesy of John MacGillvaray: http://bit.ly/2yaOGKZ


PCs Hold Clear Lead in Every Region, but Toronto, where they're tied


Liberals again dip behind the NDP for third




Toronto, September 28th – In a random sampling of public opinion taken by The Forum Poll™ among 801 Ontario voters, more than four in ten (44%) say that if an election were held today, they would support the Ontario PCs. Just over a quarter (27%) say they would support the NDP, and fewer than a quarter (22%) say they would support the Liberals. Few (5%) say they would support the Green party, while (2%) say they would support another party.



Respondents most likely to support the PCs include those aged 55-64 (52%), males (50%), the most wealthy (51%), with some college/university (50%), and living in North-Eastern Ontario (55%),

Respondents most likely to support the Liberals include those 34 and younger (26%), 45-54 (24%), or 65+ (25%), the least wealthy (31%), or earning $80,000-$100,000 (29%), with a college/university (26%) or post-graduate degree (26%), and living in Toronto (35%),

Respondents most likely to support the NDP include those aged 34 and younger (34%), 35-44 (35%), females (30%), earning $60,000-$80,000 (31%), the least educated (32%) or a post-graduate degree (29%), and living in the 905 (31%) or Southwest (29%)

Brown cruising toward massive majority

If an election were held today, Brown is likely to secure an 84 seat majority in the expanded legislature. The NDP would become the official opposition with 26 seats and the Liberals would drop to 12 seats.

Brown and Horwath still unknown by the plurality

Kathleen Wynne sees approval from fewer than one-sixth (15%) and the disapproval of three-quarters (74%). Only (11%) say they do not know. The premier’s net favourable score is -59.

Patrick Brown sees the approval of a quarter of Ontarians (28%) and the disapproval of more than a third (30%). The plurality say that they do not know what to make of Patrick Brown (43%). Brown’s net favourable score is -2.

Andrea Horwath is the most popular provincial leader with approval of more than a third (35%). Just under a quarter (24%) say they disapprove. However, more than a four in ten (41%) also say they do not know how they feel about Horwath. Her net favourable score is +9.



“The Progressive Conservatives have rebounded from a slight dip in August and once again hold a commanding lead over both the Liberals and the NDP.” said Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, President of Forum Research. “Brown's PC's have a considerable lead in five of Ontario's six regions, and are tied with the Liberals in Toronto, which would decimate the Ontario Liberal Caucus. Campaigns matter, but as the election grows nearer, every month with a PC lead means it's more likely the vote is solidifying behind Brown.”



Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416) 960-9603.


http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....ember-2017
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I looked thru the poll in more detail , some of the numbers are down right shocking

this is what forum had in the " 905 " 45 pc , 31 ndp , 16 liberal

that equal pretty much every liberal seat in Peel , Durham , Halton and York could flip pc or ndp , they might have a hard time winning anything back , we haven't seen the liberals do that bad there since 95 or 99 elections



http://poll.forumresearch.com/.....t%2028.pdf
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 9:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think I remember Cosmo outlining what works politically in those ridings

The residents are, to a high degree, home and condo-buyers. There are often immigrant communities within these ridings. They are also often raising kids. They want safe communities and schools that work, and what people with young families want. They aren't hooked into the olde Canada's religious splits or regional issues, and they want both good social services and low taxes. In fact, some of these ridings are the best expressions of multiculturalism.

So ... their home-ownership makes them feel prosperous even while they have to be prudent to avoid debt in their personal lives. Not all of them succeed. I suspect that they are more upset by the prospect of debt and higher taxes than inner city ridings.

The problem is -- they probably also get upset at campaigns that stress austerity. (We know what happened to Hudak.) The reason -- they get a lot of services, and secondly, a lot of these people work for the government, where they benefit from the active job discrimination policies of the different levels of government. Mississauga, for example, has lots of married couples where the wife holds down a good government job, maybe making $60,000 a year, and the husband drives a delivery van or wears a shirt with his name on it. Buying a house, trying to stop their kids from getting tattoos, or involved with drugs, and Dad can't even watch the game on the weekend anymore, etc. -- as Zorba the Greek said: The full catastrophe.

Winning these ridings is the key to government in Ontario. These kinds of riding ring other cities in Ontario. Even when the multicultural element is smaller, these ridings are full of people who vote according to pocketbook issues, but they aren't conservative, so much as pragmatic, with a what's-in-it-for-me attitude. They are opportunistic and enterprisig.

I expected gains amongst these ridings, but these numbers make it look like the Liberals could be wiped out.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Burlington to the Border of Toronto along the QEW;
Burlington, Oakville, Oakville North—Burlington, Mississauga-Lakeshore, Mississauga—Streetsville, Mississauga—Erin Mills, Mississauga—Malton, Mississauga East—Cooksville, and Mississauga East Centre there are a few new seats but in those current boundaries you have no current PC MPPs

Basically nine seats one way then you go the other way through Hamilton you have seven ridings before you come across your first PC MPPs in Niagara West—Glanbrook.

The West 905s are usually the ridings that swing wildly to the party in power;
All of Mississauga was CPC in 2011 and all of it was LPC in 2015.

The party that forms government almost always has to have strength in this area in order to win and has been the challenging area for the PCs since Mike Harris.
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