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RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:58 am    Post subject: Conservative MP Denis Lebel leaving politics Reply with quote

( some surprising news out of quebec , a longtime tory mp is leaving early , I wouldn't of been that surprised if he had retired by next election but the early exit is )


Longtime Conservative MP Denis Lebel quitting politics


ROBERVAL, Que. — The Canadian Press


Published Monday, Jun. 19, 2017 11:20AM EDT



Longtime Conservative MP Denis Lebel is quitting politics after nearly 10 years in the House of Commons.

The former cabinet minister made the announcement in his Quebec riding of Lac-Saint-Jean on Monday.

Lebel, 63, has been an MP since September 2007.

“I am a man who doesn’t like half measures but who likes to commit fully,” he told a news conference in Roberval, Que.

“I’ve been in Ottawa for nearly 10 years and I had the impression I’d pretty much reached the objectives I set out.”

His various portfolios under former prime minister Stephen Harper included transport, intergovernmental affairs and infrastructure.

“From the bottom of my heart, I want to thank Mr. Harper, who will go down in history as a great prime minister,” he said.

Lebel will officially step down in the next few weeks and will not be back in the Commons in the fall.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer praised Lebel in a statement for the role he played in the selection of Tory candidates in Quebec in the 2015 general election.

“Thanks to the work Denis did before and during the last campaign, our party had its best performance ever in Quebec, winning 12 seats,” Scheer said.

Meanwhile, Bloc Quebecois Leader Martine Ouellet immediately dismissed the possibility of running in the byelection to replace Lebel.

“It’s important to respect the outlying regions and to have people from these regions who know the areas,” Ouellet said in Ottawa.

“I love Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean but it’s not a region I know very well.”

The former Parti Quebecois member of the legislature is still sitting in the national assembly as an Independent and represents a Montreal-area riding that is about 450 kilometres south of Lebel’s riding.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/longtime-conservative-mp-denis-lebel-quitting-politics/article35356676/
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deputy Conservative leader Denis Lebel leaving federal politics

Quebec politician served as minister in various portfolios under Stephen Harper

CBC News Posted: Jun 19, 2017 8:47 AM ET| Last Updated: Jun 19, 2017 12:14 PM ET

Deputy Conservative Leader Denis Lebel is expected to announce today he is leaving federal politics after 10 years in Ottawa.


After a decade in Ottawa, Deputy Conservative Party leader Denis Lebel is leaving federal politics.

The 63-year-old MP for the Quebec riding of Lac-Saint-Jean made the announcement in Roberval Monday morning, saying it was not an easy decision to make.

Calling it an "honour" to serve, Lebel said he will take a couple of weeks to wrap up his work, but will not return to Parliament Hill in the fall.

"I met extraordinary people, people who worked with us, people who left us," he said.
■Scheer elected new Conservative leader
■Conservative Party stands by voting process

Lebel praised former prime minister Stephen Harper and his interim successor Rona Ambrose for leaving the party in good hands with Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer.

"I have confidence in the future of this party," he said.

In a statement, Scheer credited Lebel for boosting the party's popularity in Quebec.

"Among all the responsibilities of a politician, I know what Denis liked best was to be able to meet Quebecers from across the province," he said.

'Historic results'

"Thanks to Denis' work before and during the last election, our party achieved historic results by electing 12 Conservative MPs in Quebec. We have a strong team in Quebec that plays a key role within our national caucus."

Lebel, the former mayor of Roberval, was first elected to the Canadian House of Commons in 2007.

He was appointed by Harper as minister of the Economic Development Agency of Canada for the Regions of Quebec. He was promoted to transport minister in 2011 but shuffled out shortly after the Lac-Megantic train disaster.

Lebel was Harper's Quebec lieutenant and served as minister of infrastructure, communities and intergovernmental affairs

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4167004
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Denis Lebel's departure to put Andrew Scheer's Conservative leadership to tough electoral test

Former cabinet minister to give up seat Conservatives won by narrow margin in 2015, setting off a 4-way race

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Jun 20, 2017 5:00 AM ET| Last Updated: Jun 20, 2017 5:00 AM ET

Conservative MP Denis Lebel announced Monday he would vacate his seat of Lac-Saint-Jean this summer.


Denis Lebel, deputy leader of the Conservative Party and former minister in Stephen Harper's government, will be resigning his seat of Lac-Saint-Jean over the summer. When a vote is held to replace him, it could be a tough test of Andrew Scheer's new leadership of the Conservatives.

It also will provide a glimpse of where the Liberals and NDP stand in the province — and whether the Bloc Québécois has any future under its new leader, Martine Ouellet.
■Conservative Denis Lebel leaving federal politics
■Byelection performance can be predictive of future results

Lac-Saint-Jean, a riding north of Quebec City in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region, was first won by Lebel in a 2007 byelection when the riding was known as Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean.

Lebel has since been re-elected three times, most recently in 2015. But his share of the vote in that election fell by nine points. With 33.3 per cent of ballots cast, Lebel just narrowly defeated the NDP's Gisèle Dallaire, who captured 28.5 per cent of the vote.

The Bloc and Liberal candidates trailed with 18.4 per cent of the vote apiece.

But with Quebec now showing some of the most volatile poll numbers in the country, the riding could be a toss-up whenever the byelection is called — and all four parties will have something to prove.

Scheer's first real test?

Lac-Saint-Jean might prove a real challenge for Scheer. It won't be his only electoral test, however, as a byelection will be needed to replace Rona Ambrose in the Alberta riding of Sturgeon River–Parkland.

But that is a Conservative stronghold. In Lac-Saint-Jean, Scheer will be tasked with retaining a close seat in a province that helped deliver him the party's leadership.

Lebel was a former mayor of the town of Roberval within the riding and his candidacy was instrumental in the party's 2007 win there. Since 2011, Lebel has been the sole Conservative MP in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region.

His decline in support in 2015 — when the Conservatives marginally increased their share of the vote province-wide — should be of concern for the party. Failing to hold the seat would not bode well for Scheer's potential to make further gains for the Conservatives in the province.

Ouellet not planning to try for federal seat

The Bloc Québécois once dominated the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, a traditional heartland of the sovereignty movement. But the party was shut out in the region in 2011 and 2015.

Lac-Saint-Jean was held by the Bloc between 1993 and 2007 and three of the region's five seats are currently held by the provincial Parti Québécois. These roots would seem to make the riding an attractive one for Ouellet, who took over the Bloc's leadership in March.

Lac-Saint-Jean 2015 results
Ouellet does not hold a seat in the House of Commons but still sits in Quebec's National Assembly as an independent, representing a riding south of Montreal. The province holds its next election in the fall of 2018, and Ouellet says she will finish her term. In the meantime, she is splitting her time between Quebec City and Ottawa.

In a press conference Monday, Ouellet said she would not run in Lac-Saint-Jean, as someone from the region should run for the Bloc instead.

Other considerations, including the struggles the Bloc might have in paying their leader a salary to replace what Ouellet currently receives as an MNA, could be at play.

If Ouellet finishes her term in the National Assembly and does not run for re-election provincially, she will be owed a "transition allowance," a payout MNAs get from the province if they complete their term and either decide not to run or are defeated. As Ouellet was once a PQ minister, she receives more than other MNAs, about $125,000. She will not receive this allowance if she resigns her seat before the next provincial election.

Liberal-NDP swing in Quebec

The NDP was the runner-up in Lac-Saint-Jean in 2011 and 2015, but polls in Quebec have shown a significant swing away from the New Democrats and towards the Liberals.

The byelection will serve as a test of these shifting opinions in Quebec. The Liberals are counting on making gains in Quebec in 2019 to offset potential losses elsewhere, such as in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while the NDP is hoping to hold its seats in Quebec, which represents over a third of the party's national caucus.

Additionally, if the byelection is held after the NDP selects its new leader in October, it could be a baptism of fire for whoever they choose.

Four-way toss-up?

All four parties would have reasonable hopes of winning Lac-Saint-Jean. Applying the difference between the 2015 election and the latest polls in Quebec would drop the Conservatives down to between 26 and 34 per cent in Lac-Saint-Jean, followed closely by the Liberals at 20 to 26 per cent, the NDP at 15 to 26 per cent and the Bloc at 16 to 25 per cent.

While that still puts the Conservatives (narrowly) at the top of the heap, this does not account for the hit the party might take from Lebel's departure. Instead, this crude estimate suggests any of the four parties could win Lac-Saint-Jean with less than a third of the vote.

And that wouldn't be unusual for the region. In 2015, the NDP won Jonquière with just 29.2 per cent of the vote and the Liberals took Chicoutimi–Le Fjord with 31.1 per cent.

So one of two (or potentially three) new leaders will hope that the byelection in Lac-Saint-Jean will provide signs to their respective parties that they can lead them to the promised land in 2019, while the Liberals will be looking for evidence they can make good on their gains in the polls in Quebec.

As byelections go, Lac-Saint-Jean could prove to be a very revealing one.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4167498
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Departure of former Conservative minister Denis Lebel sets up intriguing Quebec byelection: Hébert


Conservatives will have a close eye on the vote in Lac-Saint-Jean as their provincewide vote slips. NDP, Bloc Québécois will be dialed in for the result. For the Liberals, the seat is a long shot.


Outreach: Then Infrastructure Minister Denis Lebel in the Commons, in 2015, had a knack for not making enemies, writes columnist Chantal Hébert.



By Chantal HébertNational Affairs Columnist

Mon., June 19, 2017



With the resignation on Monday of former Conservative minister Denis Lebel, all is in place for a mid-mandate testing of the federal waters in Quebec. With three of the four opposition parties featuring new leaders, the byelection to be held in the riding of Lac-Saint-Jean — possibly before the end of the year — will be a must-watch.

But first a word on the departing Lebel: Prior to serving as deputy leader to Rona Ambrose over the interim period that led to Andrew Scheer’s election as leader, Lebel was Stephen Harper’s last Quebec lieutenant. His early departure from the federal scene had been expected. Opposition politics was not his cup of tea. Nor for that matter would playing second fiddle to the new leader’s lieutenant have been.

A man who does not make enemies easily, Lebel can take some of the credit for a larger and qualitatively stronger Quebec caucus than the one he initially joined in 2007. Few MPs on either side of the House can boast as cordial a relationship with Philippe Couillard’s government as Harper’s former Quebec point man.

It is an open secret that the premier would like to recruit Lebel to run under the provincial Liberal banner in next year’s Quebec election. But Lebel claims he is done with politics for the foreseeable future. That may change depending on how the wind is blowing in the lead-up to the provincial campaign.

And now on to the riding Lebel is about to relinquish and the unpredictable outcome of the upcoming byelection fight.



For his first electoral test in Quebec, incoming Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has his work cut out for him.

On the plus side, the party has deeper roots in Lac-Saint-Jean than in most other Quebec ridings. Under Brian Mulroney, the Tories used to paint the region blue. Lebel, himself, has served for an uninterrupted decade in the House of Commons.

But his election scores speak to the diminishing Quebec returns the Conservatives recorded over the Harper era. Lebel was first elected in a 2007 byelection with 60 per cent of the vote. By 2015, that share was down to 33 per cent. These days the Conservative party is running in fourth place provincewide.


Scheer, as the leader of the incumbent party, may have the most to lose in the byelection, but, given the riding’s history, the stakes are also high for the Bloc Québécois’ Martine Ouellet.

Lac-Saint-Jean is a francophone riding located in one of Quebec’s most nationalist regions. As a federal MP and a Quebec premier, Bloc founder Lucien Bouchard used to call the region home. So did his house leader and successor Michel Gauthier. The latter held what was then known as the Roberval riding for almost 15 years. It was upon Gauthier’s political retirement that Lebel entered Parliament. Notwithstanding the Bloc’s fourth place finish, with 18 per cent of the vote in the last election, Lac-Saint-Jean is in the top tier of winnable ridings for the sovereigntist party.

The rookie BQ leader has been running the party from her seat in the National Assembly. If Ouellet takes a pass on running for a federal seat in a riding with such favorable political demographics, it will speak volumes about her confidence in her capacity to bring the Bloc back to a position of influence on Parliament Hill. The same is true if her party does not show well in the byelection.

Unless the prime minister uncharacteristically rushes to fill the vacancy, the Lac-Saint-Jean vote will likely come on the heels of the choice of Thomas Mulcair’s successor next fall. In 2015, the NDP finished second in the riding, five points behind the Conservatives.

The 16 Quebec New Democrats who did not get washed away when the Orange wave receded in 2015 will be looking at this byelection result for omens as to their 2019 survival odds under their third leader in as many general elections.

And what of the Liberals? Polls on Quebec voting intentions have the party anywhere from 20 to 25 points ahead of its opposition rivals provincewide. But the last time the federal Liberals held Lac-Saint-Jean, Justin Trudeau’s father was leader.

If the ruling Liberals had their pick of a Quebec byelection battleground next fall, Outremont, the seat currently held by outgoing NDP leader Thomas Mulcair, would be the riding where they would hope to be given the opportunity to score a mid-mandate hit

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/06/19/departure-of-former-conservative-minister-denis-lebel-sets-up-intriguing-quebec-byelection-hbert.html
Bugs





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PostPosted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder how different the prospects might have been had Bernier won the leadership?

Oh well... we shall see. 'The Liberals have poured big money into by-elections in Alberta and other Liberal-unfriendly areas, hoping to make the point that Conservative political ideas are ... well, so-oo 1980-ish. No doubt they will do at least as much to drive a conservative seat out of Quebec. For them, it would be a great opportunity.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I wonder how different the prospects might have been had Bernier won the leadership?

Oh well... we shall see. 'The Liberals have poured big money into by-elections in Alberta and other Liberal-unfriendly areas, hoping to make the point that Conservative political ideas are ... well, so-oo 1980-ish. No doubt they will do at least as much to drive a conservative seat out of Quebec. For them, it would be a great opportunity.


well considering the liberals/trudeau went into seats like Medicine Hat Alberta and Calgary Heritage and claimed to have a chance at winning the by elections , you can only imagine what there going to throw into a by election in a tory seat in quebec .

but its really unclear who is going to win that by election , it take a really good conservative candidate and a strong effort to hold off the other parties , ndp , bloc and liberals might all make a run for it . it depends too how much of the cpc vote last time was only for Lebel personally and not the party
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was really only making the point that Bernier's leadership had potential for more seats in Quebec that Scheer can't duplicate.

I wonder if Lebel is retiring because Bernier didn't win. Maybe he sees a different future for himself now that Scheer is the boss, so he decided to cut his losses because he sees another six years in opposition.

He seems to be quite a political personality, and the Conservateurs are not likely able to replace that. Let's imagine that Lebel, personally, brings 5000 votes with him, regardless of the party he runs for. Do we have anybody waiting in the wings that can duplicate that. Not likely.
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lac-Saint-Jean is a challenging riding.
Denis Lebel was one of the rockstar candidate Harper was able to secure, who was a very personally popular mayor of Roberval which was within the riding.

The BQ should be strong in the by-election, its one of the most French Speaking ridings in the Province and has amongst the highest population of Quebec born voters in the Province and it will be an interesting gauge as to weither Quebec is at all agitated by the removal of Thomas Mulcair as leader of the NDP.
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 6:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( there is also the possibility of another by election in quebec , in Outremont the seat held my Mulcair , he hasn't exactly figured out what he is doing and if he'll stay or not once the ndp finds a new leader )


Mulcair undecided about post-leadership future

‘It’s a struggle for me right now,’ Mulcair says in end of session press conference


BJ Siekierski

Wednesday, June 21st, 2017


NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair still hasn’t decided what he’ll do with himself after the party picks his successor next October.

“I know all of the candidates well and it would be an honour to serve with any one of them, and my decision is essentially going to be taken with regard to the rest of what I want to accomplish,” Mulcair said in an end-of-session press conference Wednesday in the National Press Theatre.

“You might have noticed that I rather enjoy the role of opposition and holding the government to account, and I was elected by the people...

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/06/21.....ip-future/
Bugs





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 7:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Poor old Mulcair ... the prosecutor who turned politician, who turned his skills as a master of innuendo and eye-rolling snark ... pretty good with lies as well ... into the leadership of a party of lunatics.

What are his 'transferable skills'?

The sad thing is that the only spot really suited for nasty jerks is at the top. And those jobs are being saved for women.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Jun 22, 2017 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mulcair either crosses the floor or steps down.
There is no way he hangs on after a new leader is selected.

There is also no way the NDP holds Outremont if he isn't the candidate.
An easy Liberal pick up.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 18, 2017 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is discussion that current Saguenay mayor Jean Tremblay may seek the CPC nomination after his term as Mayor is up in fall.

He would be a strong get for the Tories who have done well with former mayors in this riding.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sat Aug 19, 2017 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back to looking for royal jelly?

The big, bold move would have been to give Bernier the leadership. Instead the party is acting out the very drama that fuels separatism -- that the Anglos won't play fair, that they favour their own, and all of that. It's like kryptonite for voters in Quebec.

Leadership is a matter of creating a stir, attracting influential people, creating a social movement. It is not a matter of looking for indefinable qualities in individuals. That's magic thinking.

It's more about knowing what the national problems are, and having solutions that the crowd understands. In the old days, it was rhetoric. These days it's media.

I watch this new leader. He looks earnest and apologetic. He seems to be marginalizing Bernier. It means throwing an asset away. Maybe Lebel sees -- there's nothing to invest in here. It's the opposite of attracting influential supporters.

He is calling himself a feminist in Chatelaine, and now he's distancing himself unnecessarily from The Rebel. (Why say anything?) This is true gutlessness.

That's his emerging image -- just another politician who will say whatever it takes to win favour with the public. He is not the guy, folks. No royal jelly, no instincts for the job. A real leader has to face down unfair criticism, has to layout the challenge, and you only get one chance to make a first impression.

He's another managerial type, another visionless bureaucrat, thinking he knows the answers when he doesn't even know the questions. He thinks he can get power by being liked. And he's putting his considerable likeability to the test against one of the most likeable politicians on the face of the earth today. Vacuous, and linked to political thugs, but likeable.

He will only get elected when the public is so disgusted they are ready to fire the present bunglers and turn to this almost-as-likeable politician.

Scheer is consolidating his position rather than getting everybody on board. He wants job security but he isn't going to ever tell us what he would do if he got the big job. Because he doesn't know.

This is a fine mess you've got us in ... someone said that before.
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
Back to looking for royal jelly?


You realize I voted for Bernier yeah?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, sorry, I didn't mean to direct the remarks specifically at you. I am trying to point out the flaws with this approach. There is nothing personal in my comments, and I hope you didn't take it that way.

Let me use this occasion to explore my own thinking along this line. I think we do differ on this, but probably more of it is due to the fact that you're a busy guy, and you willing delegate a lot of stuff to the party itself. But you are open-minded enough to listen to a pitch without doing "a TC" if you know what I mean.

This is the way I see it. There are huge changes taking place in the world. It isn't just Donald Trump, there's reaction against globalism that is present all over the West, and it is being resisted mightily by institutional forces of some kind using government against its own people. This is accompanied by huge transfers of wealth, from the West to the East. The economics of the world are shifting at the tectonic plate level. It is approaching a critical state.

And let's not even talk about the instability created by the Obama foreign policy, which has left power vacuums that makes third world dictators salivate. That's probably beyond our scope, but it's a big problem area.

Closer to home, it seems like the welfare state is on the edge of becoming insane. Here's the root problem, as I see it. Campaigning in the welfare state has consisted of a 'bidding war' amongst the parties of the left, each competing to outdo the other in the giveaway fiesta. And the Conservatives stand glumly by, promising an electorate who largely don't pay taxes that long range planning and incremental change can get us to the same place.

The problem is, from the Conservative side, that as fiscal damage is repaired, the heat comes off, and the allure of baby bonus cheques becomes greater. (If you have a couple of young kids, you can get an extra $1000 a month out of this right now!) Hadn't we get an effective way of competing against this kind of vote-buying?

And at home, these seemingly 'global' interests have turned our educational system into a social engineering experiment. Young men are in deep trouble. Officials of government education are using schools to the change the population by changing the attitudes of students, and then backing them up, power-wise, through Human Rights Commissions! These things are tearing the culture up. Our party pays no attention to this, even though it is probably the biggest threat to our rights -- other than google -- than we can imagine.

If you look to our usual 'leadership pool' you find people concerned about climate change and making sure the world is even nicer for women. They are the candidates chiefly because they're journeyman politicians but they speak French well enough to impress Anglos. We end up selecting a person who has more 13th ballot votes!

To the south of us, these same domestic trends seem to be expanding and are coming to the point that some commentators in the USA claim it's becoming a ''slow'' civil war. Rogue sections of the state bureaucracy itself seem to be able to veto the President.

Trump's election comes from a deep-seated desire -- in the public -- forcing the government to find new ways of working and to reduce its expense dramatically. But some dark force is fighting back.

All this and more is going on in the world around us.

And yet we had a leadership that was skewed to ensure that the areas that never voted Conservative were fully represented. Unfortunately, that means, in a lot of ridings, small groups could capture a lot of 'points' because nobody serious is even interested it the Conservative nomination in that riding.

So, tight religious/ethnic communities with an eye to the main chance have an advantage. Groups like the 'social conservatives' do too. On the ground, it passes undue influence to groups that aren't already Conservative activists.

WTF??? This is a kind of craziness that affects abstract people. They don't understand what we are doing. A certain faction of the electorate wants a leader that speaks for them. We aren't trying to restore any kind of 'injustice' that's been committed against the liberal regions of the country ... or are we?

I invite you to consider the other alternative -- which I take to be something like a secure internet election. Or a delegated election, in which there is 'brokering'of promises.

How would the leadership race been damaged if the party had thrown the election to the existing membership, on a certain date, and had the contenders demonstrate their appeal to the public? Imagine O'Leary and Bernier setting the pace. It could have been dyn-O-mite. Or a delegated election, where delegates could see the future leader responding under pressure.

That kind of election wouldn't have led to this disgraceful treatment of Bernier. Hé's being treated like he's David Orchard.

It ends up with a small group of social conservatives throwing the leadership to 'Scheer' -- who doesn't want be seen talking to the 'squares' by the 'cool' people. And from whom Scheer dissociates himself -- with haste.

I won't say that was an inevitable outcome, but what politician would have honored those promises once in the leadership? We opted for a system that, it turns out, leads to deal-making for late-ballot votes, and impossible promises being made to cover-up for ... something. What was the secret part of the deal?

I never foresaw this at the time, but the way I understand it, every time you 'weight' votes in these ways, you detract from the true vox populi. Why would you do that?

I wouldn't say the final verdict was in on Andrew Scheer, but the signs so far aren't auspicious.

What I really am getting at is -- can we recognize, now, that this leader-selection process was deeply flawed. What disturbs me is that the people with fire in their bellies were so far down the candidate list. It isn't that there isn't a taste for that, in the party,

Also, what can be do to turn Andrew Scheer into a scrapper?
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Conservative MP Denis Lebel leaving politics

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