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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 8:34 am    Post subject: Did the Conservatives run a crooked election? Reply with quote

Did the Conservatives run a 'crooked' election? This is not good.

CPC's explanation for vote total discrepancy 'does not add up', says pollster

The Conservative Party’s explanation for the discrepancy between vote lists in its recent leadership contest doesn’t make sense, says pollster Quito Maggi, who has been comparing the party’s membership lists with the strikeout lists it provided to campaigns.

“It does not add up,” he said Thursday.

Earlier Thursday, the party’s director of communications said an apparent discrepancy between raw vote totals and the strikeout lists provided to the campaigns can be explained by off-site voting.

Andrew Scheer won a razor-thin victory over Maxime Bernier on Saturday, winning with 50.95 per cent of the vote to Bernier’s 49.05, which means that as few as 66 votes might have made the difference between winner and loser. The discrepancy between lists that campaigns are wrestling with is more than enough to make up the difference between the two candidates.

The party says that 141,362 votes were counted on Saturday, but strikeout lists sent to all the campaigns appear to show a smaller number of votes tallied: 133,896, plus 10,429 incomplete or spoiled ballots.

This difference has some campaigns wondering: Where did 7,466 votes come from?

“There appears to be a discrepancy,” said the campaign manager for one unsuccessful candidate, speaking on condition that his name not be used. “There seem to be 8,000 extra votes.”

Cory Hann, director of communications for the party, said Thursday that the strikeout lists sent to the campaigns included mailed-in ballots and ballots cast at the convention centre in Toronto, but not ballots cast at 13 other polling locations across the country.

“The Saturday list that they received does not include the polling locations,” he said. “That does not include in-person voting locations.”

But Maggi, who spot-checked some of the riding results on Thursday, says that Hann’s explanation can’t be correct.

“Not at all,” he said. “The situation absolutely has to be more complicated because there are more ballots counted in certain ridings that didn’t have a voting location within reasonable distance.”

For instance, Maggi says raw vote results downloaded on the night of the convention show 10 more votes were cast in two Thunder Bay ridings than appear in the strikeout lists. The nearest in-person polling location to Thunder Bay was in Simcoe Grey, a 13-hour drive away.

“There are more votes in ridings that were not eligible to vote on the day of voting,” said Maggi.

Hann insisted that the process was rigorously overseen.

“The ballots themselves are the important piece here,” he said. “Those were always in control and overseen by the party, by the scrutineers, by Deloitte etc.”

Hann told CTV on Thursday that “human error” may be behind minor discrepancies between the vote totals.

The party has not released a riding-by-riding breakdown of raw vote totals, and doesn’t intend to do so, Hann said.

Sorry, but this is unforgiveable. This brings the whole election into question, and probably does more to promote a split in the party than anything anyone else has done.

It is also unforgiveable to think these kinds of things happen in other countries, but not in Canada. That's absurd. How can there be a discrepancy of 8000 votes?

This is why these elaborate ballots are dangerous.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Scheer has to do what Patrick Brown did the moment riding counts were called into question.

Get a third party in there immediately to review the results;
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:57 am    Post subject: Re: Did the Conservatives run a crooked election? Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

This is why these elaborate ballots are dangerous.

Elaborate ballot?

It was a pretty basic ballot. Having to attach an ID and signing made things a bit more complicated for people, but I don't think that is what you meant.

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PostPosted: Fri Jun 02, 2017 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I say 'elaborate', I meant that it required people to make a lot of choices, particularly those who were registering their third choice by the time it got to the final found. Also, the weighting distorts the feelings of the people who actually voted. In a normal election, one feels the surge of the crowd, the weight of public opinion because voters see other people who feel like they do, and they get a sense of the local temper.

But you don't get any of that with this election, because 1000 votes in one riding might be cancelled out by 100 votes in another.

And now his discrepancy is made known, and we don't know where we're at.

Who would have won if the election had been simply a one-man, one-vote affair, with the first to 50%+1 being the winner? They don't even want us to ask that question.

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PostPosted: Sat Jun 03, 2017 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uh-oh ...

Bernier camp casts doubt on Conservative leadership vote
The Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Jun. 02, 2017 12:34PM EDT

A substantial discrepancy in the final ballot count at the Conservative leadership convention is threatening to spill into open revolt and undermine the electoral legitimacy of new leader Andrew Scheer.

Followers of Maxime Bernier are raising alarm bells about the gap between the votes cast and the final number announced at last weekend’s convention, where Mr. Scheer won a razor-thin victory over Mr. Bernier.

“Obviously it is concerning, but I am hoping that the party is working very hard to provide a satisfactory answer to the candidates and the party,” Conservative MP Tony Clement, a key player in the Bernier leadership team, told The Globe and Mail on Friday.

The bothersome thing is ... they shredded the vote precisely so there wouldn't be a recount! That's the kind of thing labour unions do!
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:

Who would have won if the election had been simply a one-man, one-vote affair, with the first to 50%+1 being the winner? They don't even want us to ask that question.

Scheer won the most votes by ~7000.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry, I saw that ... well, I was wrong.

I still don't understand how he can win by so many votes, and yet the margin be so slim.
There was an article that claimed that a handful of voters in the right places could have tipped the scales.


My biggest regret is that they can't do a recount.

If Scheer has any sense, he will realize he has to work out Bernier's place in a new government quickly. He has to become something like the Quebec lieutenant, it seems to me.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Monday ... there's a couple of new articles out on this cloud over the new leadership. The new news is that Kelly Leitch is also asking questions, and voices are coming forth that the vote was not carefully áudited' by Deloitte etc, as claimed. It was only 'monitored'.

What bothers me is that the ballots were destroyed. What accountant firm destroys current records? I would think that these careful souls would not embark on such a course without authorization and a specific order. Without that, it's a rogue move.

I can see, if someone from the membership had made the motion that all the ballots be destroyed, to ceremonially close a convention, for example, to illustrate their unity behind a leader -- it'd be entirely within the rules. But this wasn't like that. This is more like destroying the evidence.

Scheer has to get Bernier to back him. Whatever the price. That's my view. He said he's the guy who can keep all factions of the party together -- so now is his opportunity!

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's not going away ...

Conservatives face mounting calls for voting probe
Laura Payton, Ottawa News Bureau Online Producer
Published Monday, June 5, 2017 10:02PM EDT

OTTAWA -- Supporters of failed Conservative leadership candidate Maxime Bernier want to see an investigation into the party's ballot counting process because of a discrepancy in the number of members who voted and the number of ballots counted, sources tell CTV News.

But others are coming forward to defend a process they say was completely fair.
The party is facing concerns it tallied 141,362 ballots while records from its Constituent Information Management System (CIMS) database show only 133,896 members voted.

Saskatchewan MP Andrew Scheer won on the last ballot with 50.95 per cent to Quebec MP Maxime Bernier's 49.05 per cent. Bernier had led the 14 contestants on the ballot -- which included Kevin O'Leary, who dropped out after the ballots were printed -- throughout the results. Scheer won 7,049 more votes than Bernier on the last ballot, the party said. That's close to the difference between the number of ballots cast and the number of members recorded as having voted -- 7,466.

A Conservative party official said the discrepancy could be explained by possible errors as volunteers scanned the bar codes found in the voting packages, leaving some party members uncounted on the CIMS list. He said the CIMS list also wouldn't have included most of the members who cast ballots at the remote polling stations set up by some riding associations.

After eliminating the number of votes cast in person and not included on the CIMS list, that would still be about 3,400 more ballots than voting members on the list, a source told CTV's senior political correspondent Glen McGregor.

No official complaint has been filed with the party, raising eyebrows among those who don't believe the implication that there's a problem with the voting result. [....]

Scheer has to do something!

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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 6:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bernier affirms support for Scheer, despite questions around vote

Andrew Scheer, right, and Maxime Bernier
Andrew Scheer, right, is congratulated by Maxime Bernier at the federal Conservative leadership convention in Toronto on May 27, 2017. (Frank Gunn / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

Laura Payton, Ottawa News Bureau Online Producer

Published Tuesday, June 6, 2017 7:34PM EDT

OTTAWA -- Former Conservative leadership candidate Maxime Bernier is offering his full support to the party's new leader, despite complaints by his supporters about the voting process.

"As I stated on election night: I support our new leader Andrew Scheer. Unconditionally," Bernier wrote on Twitter Tuesday evening.

While nobody has formally complained to the party or on the record in the media, some of Bernier's supporters say the numbers don't add up. While the party says 141,633 ballots were cast in choosing Scheer as the new leader, its Constituent Information Management System (CIMS) database lists only 133,896 members as having voted.

The party says about 4,000 member IDs weren't recorded in the system because they voted in-person the day of the announcement, and were struck off a paper list instead. That leaves about 3,400 more ballots cast than member IDs recorded, which the party says is likely due to human error.

The dispute has left the party fighting publicly over Scheer's win, although those who dismiss the concerns point out nobody has made a complaint on the record, whether formally with the party or in the media.

Scheer said Tuesday he had reviewed the voting process and accepted the results as accurate.

“I’m satisfied that the integrity of the ballots were always maintained, and I’m sure every leadership candidate and their team who gets walked through the process will arrive at the same conclusion,” he told CTV Atlantic.

Earlier Tuesday, celebrity businessman and former candidate Kevin O'Leary said he will advocate as a party member for a recount.

"I would prefer to shine the light of transparency on this issue because it taints the new mandate, it taints the party, it taints the candidates," O'Leary said in an interview with CTVNews.ca.

"It would be far easier given how few votes there actually are to count, to simply recount them. It is not unusual in close political contests," he said.

Ontario MP Erin O'Toole was the first leadership candidate to publicly address the controversy, says he's confident the process was run fairly.

"Based on my team's experience with the leadership election, I am very confident that the process was run fairly," O'Toole said in a statement.

"I stand 100 [per cent] behind our leader Andrew Scheer and want to keep our members focused on the battle that lies ahead; defeating the Liberals in 2019 before they do more damage to our economy, our social fabric and the prosperity and wellbeing of future generations."

O'Leary agreed with O'Toole that he'd rather be talking about defeating the Liberals in 2019, but remains committed to the need for a recount.

"I don't think it's healthy for us not to be able to have total transparency on any process," he said.

The party says its rules don't allow for a recount once the result has been certified by the chief electoral officer and Deloitte, which oversaw the voting process.

"Those results are final and they're not subject to appeal," Dan Nowlan, the chair of the Conservative Party's Leadership election organizing committee, said in an interview with CTV Power Play host Don Martin.

"So there's no recount possible and there's no nothing possible. That's it."


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bernier is coming through!

Why is Scheer laying low on this?

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PostPosted: Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The friendly press reaction ...

Tories making Trudeau’s job easy

Dear Conservative Party of Canada:

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau already has enough advantages over you heading into the 2019 federal election.

There’s no need to make his job easier by questioning the legitimacy of Andrew Scheer’s hard-fought victory in your just-completed leadership race.

If you can’t run your own leadership contest competently and come to a result that all the leadership camps accept, how can Canadians trust you to run the country?

Even if the process was flawed, that’s not Scheer’s fault. It was the same for everyone in the race.

For heaven’s sake, your eye-glazing leadership contest lasted over a year, with 14 contestants at its height and 13 at the end.

Are you now saying that was a mulligan and you should do the whole thing over again?

Maxime Bernier, who lost to Scheer on the thirteenth ballot by a nose, says he accepts the results and supports Scheer as leader.

So why are anonymous and disgruntled sore losers in his and other leadership camps still questioning the vote and pouring out their hurt little hearts to the media?

You lost. Deal with it.

Do you have any idea of how dumb all this makes you look to average Canadians?

As Michael Diamond, who served on Kellie Leitch’s campaign, told CTV news: “I’ve never seen losers complain about the results like they are now. Andrew Scheer won fair and square. It’s unfair to him and to his team.”

You Conservatives were the folks who kept bragging about how your ranked-ballot voting system, while indecipherable to the average person, would be the epitome of participatory democracy, doing away with the bag men, back room deals and brokered conventions of old.

Considering all your post-election squabbling, maybe you should have stuck with the bag men.

Why is it that Conservatives are always more passionate about eviscerating each other than Liberals?

Gerald Butts must worship the ground you fight on.

You’re certainly making his job as Trudeau’s principal secretary a lot easier with your Abbot and Costello “who’s on first, what’s on second?” comedy routine about who won your own leadership race.

Have you already forgotten that infighting among Conservatives (then Progressive Conservatives) reduced your majority government to two seats in the 1993 federal election and led to Jean Chretien waltzing to three consecutive Liberal majorities in 1993, 1997 and 2000?

It was only when Stephen Harper re-united the warring Reform and Red Tory wings of the conservative movement that you reduced the Paul Martin Liberals to a minority government in 2004, followed by minority victories in 2006 and 2008 and a majority government in 2011.

The lesson ought to be blindingly obvious, even to Conservatives.

That is, you win when you are united and you lose when you are disunited.

A successful Conservative leader creates a big tent which includes fiscal conservatives, Red Tories and social conservatives, because successful coalition-building wins elections.

If, instead, you want to mimic the federal New Democrats, who regularly gather around the camp fire to recall their moral victories, as opposed to actual victories, go ahead.

Then the Liberals can go back to being Canada’s natural governing party and you can complain about it from the sidelines.

Now do you see why Harper had to crack heads and keep all of you on a tight leash?

It was because, left to your own devices, you have an alarming tendency to commit political harakiri.

This is probably the worst launch of a new leadership ever. Thank God Bernier has his priorities straight, and enough sense to try to calm the waters. Do you think the best course is to simply pretend it didn't happen, and it will go away sooner or later?
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Did the Conservatives run a crooked election?

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