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RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 8:18 am    Post subject: ndp lead Sask party in new Saskatchewan poll Reply with quote

( truly shocking poll out of Saskatchewan , I had heard about how the last budget was somewhat unpopular but hard to believe the ndp would of pulled ahead of the sask party , the ndp has only a tiny caucus of mla's mostly from regina and Saskatoon , where the sask party holds most of the other ridings , and Brad Wall remains very high profile and personally well liked . the ndp also only has as intern leader and hasn't even held a leadership race

the Saskatoon numbers aren't that surprising but % for rest of Saskatchewan is as previous ndp governments had been extremely unpopular in rural Saskatchewan and lost all those ridings to sask party , its surprising they'd be gaining there )



NDP now leading in voter support over Sask. Party: poll

Support for NDP surges 7 points to 49%, with Sask. Party support at 40%, says Mainstreet/Postmedia poll

CBC News Posted: May 25, 2017 5:00 AM CT| Last Updated: May 25, 2017 5:00 AM CT

Response to a recent poll suggests that if a provincial election were held today, 49 per cent would support the NDP under interim leader Trent Wotherspoon.


The Saskatchewan Party is losing support in the province, according to a new poll that suggests the NDP has taken a nine-point lead over the governing party.

The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll released Thursday suggests decided and leaning support for the NDP is at 49 per cent — an increase of seven points — compared to the Saskatchewan Party's 40 per cent, a drop of seven points.

The poll suggests Liberal and Green support is unchanged at six per cent and five per cent respectively.

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 2,000 Saskatchewan residents May 15-16. Responses were weighted using demographic and geographic information to targets based on the 2016 Census.

Respondents were asked what party they would support if a provincial election were held today. A random sample of this size would yield a margin of error of +/- 2.19%, 19 times out of 20.

A poll in April by another polling firm found support for the Saskatchewan Party had dropped sharply following its unpopular budget, but that poll had the party still maintaining a four-point lead over the NDP.


The poll released Thursday suggests support for the NDP was most pronounced in Regina, with 58 per cent of decided and leaning voters choosing the NDP under interim leader Trent Wotherspoon, versus 29 per cent choosing the Saskatchewan Party led by Brad Wall.

Provincial decided and leaning may 25 2017 poll
Outside Regina and Saskatoon, voter support is tied between the NDP and Saskatchewan Party. (Mainstreet/Postmedia)


It suggests Saskatoon was slightly in favour of the NDP, at 46 per cent, with 42 per cent supporting the Saskatchewan Party.

In the rest of the province, support for the two parties was tied at 46 per cent.

The margin of error for Regina is +/- four percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for Saskatoon is +/- 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for the rest of Saskatchewan is +/- 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
■Brad Wall's popularity drops in wake of unpopular budget

Sask. Premier Brad Wall
Support for the Saskatchewan Party under Brad Wall has dropped to 40 per cent, according to a recent poll. (Matthew Howard/CBC)

The poll also asked people in Saskatoon and Regina for their opinions on the performance of their mayors.

In Saskatoon, 67 per cent of respondents approved of Mayor Charlie Clark's performance, with 14 per cent disapproving and 20 per cent not sure.

Regina Mayor Michael Fougere had a 48 per cent approval rate, with 38 per cent disapproving with 14 per cent not sure.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.4130347
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 8:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

although looking thru the poll in more detail I'm personally skeptical about the regina numbers ( an almost 30% lead ) , they seem to have polled very strong ndp and liberal areas of the city .

there numbers are 58 % ndp to 29% sask , 7% lib and 6 % for city of regina .

but for Saskatoon which is more ndp friendly in parts of the city ,

they have 46% ndp , 42 % sask , 6 % lib , 5 % green


so it doesn't make sense that ndp have surged that much in regina but barely gained in more ndp friendly Saskatoon .
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with you.

An additional reason: there are times where public opinion shifts radically very suddenly, but you always have a good idea of what caused the change. Public opinion shifts slowly, generally. If something dramatic enough to cause a 10% shift in party support happens, everybody would know what it was.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6295
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votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Thu May 25, 2017 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I agree with you.

An additional reason: there are times where public opinion shifts radically very suddenly, but you always have a good idea of what caused the change. Public opinion shifts slowly, generally. If something dramatic enough to cause a 10% shift in party support happens, everybody would know what it was.




the only numbers I'm really questioning is Regina , it doesn't make sense for there to be a 30% ndp lead there and only a 4% ndp lead in Saskatoon , the 2 cities are very similar . I'm not sure why the ndp would suddenly be that popular in Regina ?


but part of the reason for the sask party dropping a bit , is no doubt due to the Sask economy not being as booming as a few years ago . although it seemed to be doing a bit better than alberta as its not as oil dependent .

the last budget also didn't seem to be that popular , although every government which is in power as long as Sask party has been , comes out with the odd budget which isn't that popular

I think the next sask election is just under 3 years away . so this poll really doesn't mean much in the long term , the sask party has a majority and in a position to turn things around

and out west the ndp often seems to surge in the polls only to never win the election , just look at BC as an example , pre election polls always say the ndp are going to win yet come election day they never do
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6295
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votes: 3
Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( another poll from Saskatchewan shows similar numbers but gives the sask party a 7% province wide lead , although they do have the ndp leading in regina and Saskatoon like other poll )


Focus Saskatchewan: Premier Brad Wall faces budget fallout, but his party leads over opposition



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Saskatchewan Party holds seven-point advantage in vote intention


June 19, 2017 – Brad Wall has referred to the past few months the most difficult of his career: declining resource revenues have led his government to pursue an unpopular austerity program in search of a balanced budget – reportedly expected three years down the road.

The pain has been palpable. While the yearly deficit has been cut from $1.3B to $685 million, difficult spending cuts and $900 million in additional taxation were necessary.

As a result, the people of Saskatchewan haven’t been shy voicing their anxiety and displeasure. But if the premier and the Saskatchewan Party hold any advantage, it is that the electorate still sees them as the best to handle the economy and the province’s finances, while holding a seven-point advantage in vote intention over the opposition New Democratic Party.

Key Findings:angus reid institute
•Four-in-ten (42%) Saskatchewan residents say that the economy is the number one issues facing their province today. Health care is chosen by just over one-in-ten (12%).


•While the government has faced voter wrath over spending cuts and an increase in the PST, Brad Wall is still seen as best leader on the economy by a substantial margin


•A look at current vote intention finds Wall’s Saskatchewan Party up seven points provincially. Regionally, the NDP lead in Saskatoon and Regina, but trail by a wide margin in the rest of the province

Index:

Part 1 – Mood of Saskatchewan

Part 2 – Political Preferences



Part 1:

Residents most concerned about economy

There is one key topic weighing on the minds of most Saskatchewan residents, and it’s the one the government has historically been lauded for it’s stewardship of – the economy. More than four-in-ten (42%) say this is the top issue facing the province, with healthcare (12%) and leadership (8%) the other most pressing concerns.

Brad Wall approval

For perspective, only Alberta voices more concern on economic issues across the country, while Newfoundland and Labrador, which holds the highest unemployment rate in the country, reaches the same level as Saskatchewan:

Saskatchewan politics

Most of Brad Wall’s tenure has been characterized by strong economic growth and a low-tax environment. The province has maintained the lowest net debt per person ratio in the country outside of Alberta since he was elected in 2007. As resource revenues have dropped however, the picture has changed. Gone are the days of 2009’s “budget that potash made”, where government spending was increased 12 per cent and taxes were reduced.

Today, the picture emerging in the province is one of frustration. Just over four-in-ten are saying that they’re worse off now than they were last year at this time. Just one-in-ten (9%) say their standard of living has improved, while close to half (48%) haven’t noticed a change:

angus reid institute

And what about next year? With a gloomy budgetary forecast on the horizon, almost four-in-ten (37%) say that they expect a worsening in their standard of living by this time in 2018. This is the largest number of people who hold that opinion in a province, alongside New Brunswickers:

Wall Wotherspoon

Part 2:

Wall still favoured on key issues

People in Saskatchewan have reason to see the future with a jaded eye: the 2017/18 budget now includes a one per cent hike to the PST, and reduces some previous industry tax exemptions in efforts to bolster government coffers. But from a political standpoint, while they may find the medicine bitter, they do not wholly blame the doctor administering it. People are significantly more likely to say that Brad Wall is the best leader to handle these key economic issues over the other main party leaders:

angus reid institute

It should be noted that New Democratic Party and opposition leader Trent Wotherspoon stepped down from his position as interim leader shortly after this survey was fielded. He is expected by many to run for the official leader position during the party’s official leadership race next May after being urged by colleagues and residents alike to consider the position.

Wall and his government do face credible opposition from the NDP on two issues – health care and education. On both files three-in-ten residents prefer the New Democrat alternative to the incumbents. That said, a plurality of Saskatchewanians trust Wall’s leadership on these issues. He also generates a high level of confidence when asked which leader is best to deal with agriculture in the province, and who will best manage the province’s finances:

angus reid institute

Asked to consider who they would vote for if an election were held tomorrow, the Saskatchewan Party still carries a seven-point advantage provincially over the NDP. The election will not be held for three more years, but this suggests a stronger opposition to contend with over that period – the NDP received just 30 per cent in the 2016 election, compared to 62 per cent for the Saskatchewan Party.

angus reid institute

The provincial data suggests a competitive picture for the NDP. The regional breakdown provides more insight into their strong support in Regina and Saskatoon, where a majority say they would support the opposition party. As for the incumbent party, wide support is reported outside of those two major urban centres. Wall and his government hold a 27-point advantage in the rest of the province:

http://angusreid.org/focus-saskatchewan/
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ndp lead Sask party in new Saskatchewan poll

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