Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 8671 votes: 3
Posted: Mon May 08, 2017 7:18 am Post subject:
the results aren't really surprising , considering Le pen only got around 20% on the first ballot and there wasn't a lot of obvious ways for her to grow her support .
what strikes me as odd about this election is how little was actually known about Le Pen . it has been widely published that she has far right views and was anti muslim . but very little was known about her and most of the coverage really did little to explain what she was actually about
the left also shouldn't take this vote as an indication there going to be in power in france forever . we've often seen left surges that are followed by plunges in support . look no further than what happened in Alberta or Ontario , lefty leaders that surge during an election to stop a candidate perceived as horrible in the minds of centre left voters . only for that support to seemingly evaporate days and months after the election .
politics is often a long term game , look at Canada , in 2000 the Canadian alliance party was massively rejected but 4 years later after merging with pc's they almost won the 2004 election and then actually won in 2006 . same as the US , Obama massively won in 2008 only to become less popular almost as soon as he took office and by 2016 the republicans had retaken Washington .
its not clear that Marcom actually has any plan to stop the problems that are plaguing france . that being immigration , muslim extremism and terrorism . his victory does nothing to change the realities Europe is facing . and there is really no reason to assume these issues aren't simply going to continue , only difference there is a new President
Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 8049 votes: 21
Location: The World
Posted: Mon May 08, 2017 9:57 am Post subject:
The result wasn't really in question after it became clear who would be on the runoff ballot.
The take away for Le Pen is that the FN was not destroyed in the same manner they were in 2002 and the take away from the greater election result is that the French Population has grown tired of the Socialist and Republicans.
Emmanuel Macron is basically Mario Dumont during the ADQ days.
A kid with principals tied to a party with limited experience, however the people of Quebec didn't hand him the keys to the Kingdom.
34% of the population voted for FN, this is something that Macron needs to mindful of.
If he wants to unite the left and right he is going to have to find a way to work with the fact that 1 in every 3 voters voted for what Le Pen was selling.
Mario Dumont? I wonder if the Moslems of Quebec would be celebrating his victory as the Moslems of France are enjoying the Macron win?
I don't think you have to worry about the changes. Macron was Hollande's Minister for the Economy ... which I assume is something like a minister of finance in France's socialist party. It isn't like he's a guy who thinks outside of the box. It isn't even as if he's an outsider, as he's portrayed. And the mainline parties may be acting indignant, but when the patronage comes out, when the offices are on offer, will that resistance last?
He can, and will, ignore that third of France that wants to keep France French ... which was the motif of the election. They will be dismissed as 'extreme' and 'bigots', and kept out of the media. Until next time.
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French Election - Marine Le Pen sees boost in support