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RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:48 am    Post subject: British PM seeks early June election Reply with quote

( somewhat surprising news from the UK , the pm is seeking an early election even though the conservatives already have a majority )


Theresa May calls snap UK election on June 8

‘We need a general election and we need one now,’ says PM.

By Tom McTague and Charlie Cooper
| 4/18/17, 12:06 PM CET
| Updated 4/18/17, 1:59 PM CET


LONDON — U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said Tuesday she would call a snap general election for June 8, arguing that divisions in Westminster over Brexit had made an early vote unavoidable.

“The country is coming together, but Westminster is not,” May told reporters outside N0.10 Downing Street, adding that she would present the motion to the House of Commons on Wednesday.


“We need a general election and we need one now,” said the Conservative leader.

Accusing opposition parties of “political game-playing,” she said the country was “coming together” over the U.K.’s decision to leave the EU, but that divisions in Parliament “will risk our ability to make a success of Brexit.”

Setting the stage for the campaign messages to come, May said the election would be a choice between her “stable” leadership and a “weak and unstable coalition government led by [Labour’s] Jeremy Corbyn” and “propped up” by the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party.

“If we do not hold a general election now, their political game-playing will continue,” she said, calling it a “one-off” opportunity for a vote.

Downing Street has repeatedly insisted in recent weeks that there would be no early election. While there had been fevered speculation in the run-up to the triggering of Article 50 on March 29 that May might call a snap poll, few in Westminster expected Tuesday’s announcement.

She said she had “only recently and reluctantly come to this conclusion.”

“I have concluded that the only way to guarantee certainty and security is to get your support,” she said.

The Fixed-term Parliament Act introduced in 2011 means calling an early election requires the support of two-thirds of MPs. May said she would bring such a motion to the House of Commons on Wednesday.

Boosting her majority

Labour leader Corbyn supported May’s announcement, all but guaranteeing the vote will pass.




“I welcome the Prime Minister’s decision to give the British people the chance to vote for a government that will put the interests of the majority first,” he said.

“Labour will be offering the country an effective alternative to a government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and damaging cuts to our schools and NHS (National Health Service).

“In the last couple of weeks, Labour has set out policies that offer a clear and credible choice for the country. We look forward to showing how Labour will stand up for the people of Britain.”

May is riding high in the polls, with the most recent for YouGov putting the Conservatives on 44 percent and Labour on 23 percent.

If these numbers were reflected in a general election vote, she could expect to significantly increase her working majority of 17 seats in the House of Commons.

In her statement, May said a larger majority would strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations. But it would also enable her to push through a domestic reform agenda which otherwise could be blocked by a handful of right-wing MPs in her own party.

May’s political instincts are more statist than many in her party. She has no manifesto of her own to deliver reforms such as an industrial strategy supporting struggling sectors, an increase in the number of selective schools, and tighter rules on big business governance.

An election that delivered a larger majority would make it less likely that a relatively small number of Conservative MPs could derail government policy, as occurred when the Chancellor Philip Hammond was forced to reverse tax increases on the self-employed in last month’s budget, to ward off a backbench revolt.

Responding to the announcement, Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron called the election a chance to avoid “a disastrous hard Brexit,” pledging that his party would strive to keep Britain in the single market.

http://www.politico.eu/article.....or-june-8/
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Theresa May Calls Early Election in U.K., Seeking Stronger Mandate for ‘Brexit’


By SEWELL CHANAPRIL 18, 2017



Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain announced on Tuesday that she would call an early election, seeking to strengthen her government's mandate while it negotiates the country’s withdrawal from the European Union.

By UK POOL, VIA REUTERS. Photo by Daniel Sorabji/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images. Watch in Times Video »




LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May stunned Britain on Tuesday by announcing that she would call an early election, placing a bet that voters would give her Conservative Party a strong mandate as her government negotiates the country’s withdrawal from the European Union.

“The country is coming together, but Westminster is not,” Mrs. May said in an unscheduled appearance outside 10 Downing Street, referring to divisions in Parliament. Mrs. May added that she had “only recently and reluctantly come to this conclusion.”

The election would occur on June 8.

Mrs. May had repeatedly ruled out a snap election, so her decision on Tuesday represents an abrupt U-turn.

In calling an early election, she is betting that voters will give the Conservative Party, which holds a slim majority — 330 seats in the 650-member House of Commons — a stronger mandate. The opposition Labour Party is in severe disarray under its hard-left leader, Jeremy Corbyn. Within an hour of Mrs. May’s comments, he said that Labour would welcome an early election — even though many of his critics in the party fear that it will lose seats.
Continue reading the main story


But her announcement is also a huge gamble.

A new election will reopen some of the country’s gravest divisions. It will give Brexit opponents another chance to soften the terms of the withdrawal from the European Union by voting for Liberal Democrat and Labour lawmakers who favor the bloc. It will give the Scottish National Party, which grabbed dozens of seats from Labour in the 2015 national election, a new chance to reissue its call for Scottish independence.


If Western democracies have learned anything over the past year, it is that elections are unpredictable. And if Mrs. May wins anything less than a commanding majority on June 8, she will be weakened.

Many Britons may be exhausted from voting, after a referendum on Scottish independence (September 2014), a general election (May 2015) and the Brexit referendum (June 2016). In addition, local elections are scheduled for May 4. (It was too late to piggyback national elections onto the May 4 vote.)

Mrs. May took power in July; her predecessor, David Cameron, resigned after voters narrowly approved a referendum supporting departure from the European Union, a decision known as Brexit.

Last month, Mrs. May formally initiated the two-year divorce process, one of Britain’s most consequential decisions since World War II.
Photo


Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, in London last month. Credit Andy Rain/European Pressphoto Agency

On Tuesday, she said her decision to call an election was a response to gridlock created by the opposition.

“In recent weeks, Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union,” she said. “The Liberal Democrats said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill. The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain’s membership of the European Union. And unelected members of the House of Lords have vowed to fight us every step of the way.”

She added: “If we do not hold a general election now, their political game playing will continue.”


But her critics were quick to jump on the reversal.

“This announcement is one of the most extraordinary U-turns in recent political history, and it shows that Theresa May is once again putting the interests of her party ahead of those of the country,” Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, said in a statement. “She is clearly betting that the Tories can win a bigger majority in England given the utter disarray in the Labour Party. That makes it all the important that Scotland is protected from a Tory Party which now sees the chance of grabbing control of government for many years to come and moving the U.K. further to the right — forcing through a hard Brexit and imposing deeper cuts in the process.”

Supporters of an early election had urged Mrs. May to consider the experience of Gordon Brown, a Labour prime minister who took office in 2007 after his predecessor, Tony Blair, stepped aside. Despite polls showing that Labour would win comfortably, Mr. Brown declined to call a general election at that time, and his popularity was badly hurt during the 2008-9 financial crisis.


After 13 years in power, Labour lost the 2010 election, with Mr. Cameron’s Conservatives forming a coalition government with a centrist party, the Liberal Democrats.

That coalition passed a law making it harder to call an early election. Under the law, the Fixed-Term Parliament Act, two-thirds of the House of Commons will have to vote on Wednesday to support an early election. Given Mr. Corbyn’s support for the resolution, that seems likely. (The next regular election would have been due in 2020.)

“Labour will be offering the country an effective alternative to a government that has failed to rebuild the economy, delivered falling living standards and damaging cuts to our schools and N.H.S.,” Mr. Corbyn said in a statement, referring to the National Health Service.

The Liberal Democrats’ leader, Tim Farron, also agreed to support an early election.

“This election is your chance to change the direction of our country,” he said. “If you want to avoid a disastrous hard ‘Brexit,’ if you want to keep Britain in the single market, if you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance. Only the Liberal Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority.”

Alastair Campbell, who was a senior adviser to Mr. Blair, wrote on Twitter that the state of the post-Blair Labour Party was a factor in Mrs. May’s timing. “With the opposition as it is she thinks she can get away with anything,” he posted.

Mr. Cameron also endorsed the announcement, calling it a “brave — and right — decision.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/europe/uk-theresa-may-general-election.html?_r=0
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For Britain's May, a calculated election Brexit gamble


Paul Waldie - EUROPEAN CORRESPONDENT


LONDON — The Globe and Mail


Published Tuesday, Apr. 18, 2017 6:09AM EDT




British Prime Minister Theresa May has launched the country into a snap election campaign, hoping to build her own legacy as a leader who reshaped Britain and Europe.

On Tuesday, Ms. May reversed her long-held vow not to call an early election and announced plans to hold a vote on June 8. The decision came only a few days ago, she said, during a walking holiday in Wales with her husband. But the planning has clearly been on her mind ever since last July, when she became Prime Minister, and Conservative Party Leader, in the wake of the vote to leave the EU and the abrupt resignation of David Cameron, who was on the losing side.

▶ Play

U.K. Prime Minister May calls for early election (Reuters)

Since then, Ms. May has tried to steer the country through the early stages of the Brexit process, triggering the EU exit mechanism last month and making it clear Britain would not be keeping any ties to the EU beyond a new trade deal that she wants to negotiate. She’s also laid out an ambitious domestic agenda that includes reforming the education system, overhauling the National Health Service and making businesses more responsive to investors. Now she is hoping she’ll have a mandate from voters to do all of that.

Explainer: Britain’s snap election: What’s next, and who stands to gain what

For subscribers: Stealing London: Post Brexit, there is a high-stakes fight to be Europe’s financial centre

Her election call has also sent more reverberations throughout Europe, which is already bracing for elections in France and Germany. Brexit talks between Britain and the EU are slated to begin this summer, and Ms. May is clearly hoping she will have a resounding mandate to set her own agenda for the discussions and lead the process.

“It was with reluctance that I decided the country needs this election, but it is with strong conviction that I say it is necessary to secure the strong and stable leadership the country needs to see us through Brexit and beyond,” Ms. May said Tuesday.

It’s a calculated gamble by a politician not known for taking risks.

Britain isn’t due for a scheduled election until May, 2020, and ever since she replaced Mr. Cameron as party leader, Ms. May has stuck to that timetable, brushing aside Conservative insiders who have been pushing for an early vote for months. She’s clearly been swayed by a series of positive opinion polls, the growing unpopularity of Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn and a recent Tory by-election win in a Labour stronghold. A snap poll released on Tuesday after Ms. May’s announcement gave the Tories a 21 point lead over Labour, the biggest lead for the Conservatives since the 1980s.

Ms. May has also been given a convenient window of opportunity. She triggered the EU exit mechanism in March, launching a complex negotiating process that’s expected to last at least two years. But face-to-face talks with the EU won’t start until this summer, meaning Ms. May has a chance to win a solid mandate from British voters before negotiations begin. Expanding the Tories’ slim 17-seat majority would also allow her to quell internal dissension from fierce pro-Brexit backbenchers who grumble any time Ms. May fails to toe a hard line with the EU.

“It’s absolutely the rational choice,” said Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “She’ll win easily and with the kind of majority that will both crush Labour and mean she won’t be so beholden to the Brexit ultras on her backbenches: truly a win-win. The miracle is that she’s resisted the temptation until now – and managed to spring a genuine surprise on some of those closest to her who believed she didn’t do politics as usual. Well this is politics as usual – the PM who’s sure she’s going to win calling an election – with a vengeance.”


A resounding victory would also give Ms. May the opportunity to pursue her domestic priorities and set the stage for future wins. “It would open the possibility of a pretty long, secure, stretch in office to pursue whatever she wants to do in the long run,” said Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester. “She’d be in a position to really aim as high as she wants.”

But there are risks as well. While the Labour Party is divided, other opposition parties have put up a strong challenge to Ms. May’s handling of Brexit. The Liberal Democrats won a by-election last fall on a platform of pushing to keep Britain in the European single market, something Ms. May has rejected as she opts for a clean break with the EU. That message could begin to resonate if enough voters are feeling uneasy about Brexit. “If you want to avoid a disastrous hard Brexit, if you want to keep Britain in the single market, if you want a Britain that is open, tolerant and united, this is your chance,” said Liberal Democrat Leader Tim Farron.

The Scottish National Party too has posed a threat to Ms. May. The SNP holds nearly every seat in Scotland and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is pushing for a second referendum on Scottish independence because a majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU last June.

“This announcement is one of the most extraordinary U-turns in recent political history, and it shows that Theresa May is once again putting the interests of her party ahead of those of the country,” Ms. Sturgeon said Tuesday. “In terms of Scotland, this move is a huge political miscalculation by the Prime Minister. It will once again give people the opportunity to reject the Tories’ narrow, divisive agenda, as well as reinforcing the democratic mandate which already exists for giving the people of Scotland a choice on their future.”

Technically, Ms. May can’t call the election without backing from the opposition parties. Under Britain’s fixed-term legislation, an early election can only be called with the backing of two-thirds of members of Parliament. Ms. May will introduce a motion on Wednesday calling for a vote and Mr. Corbyn and Mr. Farron have pledged to support it.

As for the EU, officials in Brussels will be watching the campaign closely and bracing for the result. On Tuesday, EU Council President Donald Tusk likened the election call to an Alfred Hitchcock film. Playing on Mr. Hitchcock’s famous remark that a good movie should “should start with an earthquake and be followed by rising tension,” Mr. Tusk said on Twitter: “It was Hitchcock, who directed Brexit: first an earthquake and the tension rises.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....e34731997/
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

YELLOW FEVER Angry Tory MPs hit out at Theresa May’s ‘unnecessary’ snap election as they fear Lib Dem fightback will see them lose seats


As Tim Farron vowed to put Brexit back on the ballot paper the PM was accused of ‘poking the hornet’s nest’



By Harry Cole, Westminster Correspondent


18th April 2017, 3:58 pm
Updated: 18th April 2017, 7:08 pm


SHOCKED and angry Tory MPs in marginal seats have hit out at an “unnecessary” early election.

As Lib Dem boss Tim Farron vowed to put Brexit back the ballot paper, one Tory MP accused the Prime Minister of “poking the hornet’s nest” amid fears of a yellow surge.


Tory MPs are worried about a Lib Dem fightback in the West Country

While the “lines to take” script given to Tory MPs urged them to publicly welcome the snap ballot, privately there was anger at the decision.

West-country Conservatives — who routed the Lib Dems from the south-west in 2015 — are particularly concerned that the fresh vote give the pro-EU party a foothold in the region.

Concerned Cornwall and Devon MPs recently warned Downing Street directly that they risked a wipe out from angry Remain-backers switching back to the Lib Dems that could see a dozen Tory losses at an early poll.


They are angry at the PM for calling an ‘unnecessary’ snap election
Reuters


3

They are angry at the PM for calling an ‘unnecessary’ snap election

One Conservative MP defending a wafer thin majority said “having given it my all both physically and financially just 22 months ago, frankly I am surprised and nervous.”

Tory MP Nigel Hiddleston told Sky News that he was “surprised” by the the PM’s announcement this morning, and added that “backbenchers had not been given any heads up that this was happening”.


BLUE MURDER Theresa May vows to crush Tory Brexit rebels and Labour Party with snap general election


Another MP told the Sun: “I’m fine but others are going to have a bloody slog and – whether or not we make gains elsewhere – we will be thanking a few colleagues for their short service since 2015.”

And another warned the early poll was “not exactly necessary” but added “there’s not much we can do about it now.”


The Lib Dems have vowed to put Brexit back on the ballot paper come June 8

Meanwhile a delighted Lib Dem leader Tim Farron declared “only the Lib Democrats can prevent a Conservative majority.”

Speaking from Truro in Cornwall, Mr Farron said his party had seen an “increase in membership that’s almost double.”

And he boasted that there is a “great energy down here” for Britain’s third party.

But former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith hit back that the the Lib Dem’s “time had been and gone” in the region.

The ex-Cabinet Minister added: “I have get the sense my colleagues in the south-west will get on and have a very strong election down there.”


Lib Dem leader Tim Fallon reacts to Theresa May's General Election call

An more hopeful Tory MPs pointed out to solid Leave vote in the region, despite recent council by-election gains in the region.

The Lib Dem have won 33 seats since May 2016 local elections, many of them in the south-west.

And they were also hopeful of a return in London where three former Coalition ministers who lost their seats in 2015 threw their hats in the ring for a comeback.

Ex-Business Secretary Vince Cable, ex-Energy Secretary Ed Davey and ex-Justice Minister Simon Hughes vowed to contest their old seats — declaring “bring it on.”

Last night Tory party grandee Sir Malcolm Rifkind described the PM’s decision as a “manageable risk but it’s there.”

And the ex-Foreign Secretary warned the Lib Dems could “make a revival at the expense of some Conservatives.”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3356459/angry-tory-mps-hit-out-at-theresa-mays-unnecessary-snap-election-as-they-fear-lib-dem-fightback-will-see-them-lose-seats/
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SINKING SHIP A FIFTH Labour MP says he won’t stand for re-election as pollsters predict a wipe-out for Jeremy Corbyn’s party


Oxford MP Andrew Smith and Chair of the Business Select Committee Iain Wright both said today that they would step down



By Natasha Clark


19th April 2017, 9:33 am
Updated: 19th April 2017, 1:40 pm



ANOTHER TWO MPs have decided to desert Labour today and not stand for re-election.

Andrew Smith said he would step down in Oxford and Iain Wright said this morning he would not be standing again in Hartlepool – adding to a growing list of Labour MPs leaving political life.



Iain Wright – who won his seat in 2004 – won’t run again


Mr Smith said in a message to his constituents that it was “time for someone else to take forward the work of serving local people” and the time has come for him to step down.

And Mr Wright, the Hartlepool MP, said he wanted to do “other things”.

It leaves the future of the seat in question – which was also formerly occupied by New Labour spindoctor Peter Mandelson from 1992 to 2004.

He joins Tom Blenkinsop and Pat Glass – who also represent seats in the North East – who said they wouldn’t be standing again.



Pat Glass is standing down as the MP for North West Durham


Former Home Secretary Alan Johnson also won’t be standing again in nearby Hull

And former Home Secretary Alan Johnson will also be standing down in nearby Hull.

After a minute-long compliment from Business Secretary Greg Clark, Mr Wright said this morning: “I feel like I’m at my own funeral”.

His resignation came just minutes before he grilled the Cabinet Minister over industrial strategy and energy prices as chair of the cross-party Business Select Committee.


Tom Blenkinsop won’t be standing again as the candidate for Middlesbrough

The news is a fresh blow for leader Jeremy Corbyn – who is facing a wipe-out of his party in the upcoming vote.

Yesterday outspoken MP John Woodcock said he would stand again – but he couldn’t endorse his leader.

Insisting there was still time for the party leader to quit, the Barrow MP said: “I cannot countenance endorsing him for a job that even he doesn’t think he is fit to carry out.”

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3361550/another-labour-mp-says-they-wont-stand-for-re-election-as-pollsters-predict-a-wipe-out-for-jeremy-corbyns-party/
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Labour Party is in such chaos;
Why not?

Making the argument that it gives a fresh mandate to negotiate the Brexit is just icing on the cake.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 10:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem -- or is it a problem? -- is that this election will become a second referendum on Brexit. That is double-edged. On the one hand, if she loses, it would likely scupper Britain's attempt to free itself from the declining EU; on the other, if she wins it, it will ensure it.

May's calculation must be that she can leverage the Brexit vote into a full term for her party, under her own mandate. The problem is that the Conservative's win depends on the split in the vote in a three (or is it four) party field. And that could be dicey.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Theresa May wins backing from parliament for snap UK election


Prime minister says poll victory would strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations



2 hours ago
by: George Parker, Mark Odell and John Murray Brown in London



Theresa May has won overwhelming backing from MPs for her plan to hold a snap election, as Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats joined forces to pave the way for a poll on June 8.



The prime minister won the vote by 522 to 13 on Wednesday afternoon, as the House of Commons voted to override the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which had ordained that the next election should be held on May 7 2020. The Scottish National party abstained.The vote effectively starts seven weeks of election campaigning, with Mrs May saying the contest would be about “leadership and stability” as she urged voters to give her a strong mandate ahead of Brexit negotiations

.But Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, said Mrs May had broken a promise not to hold a snap election, adding to her failure to honour commitments to eliminate the deficit by 2020 and to adequately fund schools and hospitals.

“The prime minister cannot be trusted,” he told MPs, as he tried to frame an election that opinion polls suggest will end in a crushing Labour defeat. Mr Corbyn was nevertheless defiant, saying: “We welcome this general election.”Why Theresa May called a snap electionPlay videoIn a rowdy Commons debate before the vote, Conservative MPs taunted their Labour opponents. Sir Desmond Swayne, a Tory MP, said it was like watching “turkeys vote for Christmas”.

Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader, believes the election will give his pro-European party a chance of a comeback after its near-wipeout in 2015. He vowed on Wednesday to park his party’s “tanks on Tory lawns”.Meanwhile, Nicola Sturgeon, SNP leader, said the election would give her party a chance to restate its case for an independence referendum. Speaking alongside SNP MPs in Westminster, she also left open the possibility of an anti-Tory coalition in the event of a hung parliament.The countdown to the general election is now under way.

Parliament will be formally dissolved on May 3, although there was speculation in Westminster that the House of Commons could suspend its sittings as early as next week.Unresolved policy changes, including expected announcements on a clean air strategy, a crackdown on high energy prices and new rules on foreign takeovers of “critical infrastructure” are now expected to be wrapped into the Tory manifesto.Mrs May said repeatedly on Wednesday that she would not take part in a televised leaders’ debate, even though ITV said it would press ahead with such an event in any case, possibly “empty chairing” the prime minister.

A Tory spokeswoman said: “What’s important to her is answering questions from voters on the doorstep.” She added that it was up to other leaders, including Mr Corbyn, if they wanted to take part.Mr Corbyn told the Commons: “[May] says it’s about leadership yet is refusing to defend her record in television debates and it’s not hard to see why.”Mrs May wants the election to focus on Brexit, and has argued that by bringing forward the polling day she hopes to have “the strongest possible hand”. She told MPs on Wednesday: “I believe it is in Britain’s national interest to hold an election now.”Read mor

eFT View: May’s election call is right for Brexit Britain Robert Shrimsley: Enfeebled Labour leaves centre up for grabsJanan Ganesh: PM can now secure her mandate on Europe Analysis: Polls presented May with too good an opportunity to miss

An election victory would give the prime minister more leeway to accept a transition period — possibly involving the acceptance of free movement and EU laws — between the formal Brexit date of 2019 and the conclusion of a free-trade deal.“Every vote for the Conservatives will make me stronger for when I negotiate for Britain with the European Union,” Mrs May told parliament ahead of the vote on the snap poll.Sterling traded at $1.2849 on Wednesday, up 0.1 per cent on the session but off the six-month high of $1.2904 it touched on Tuesday, when it rallied as much as 2.7 per cent after Mrs May said she would call the snap election.

Britain’s benchmark stock index dipped into negative territory for the year on Wednesday, amid investor concern hat a stronger pound would sap the foreign-based revenues for many of the FTSE 100 multinational companies.In the wake of suffering its worst daily drop on Tuesday since the Brexit vote — down 2.5 per cent — the blue-chip gauge slipped as much as 0.3 per cent, before paring losses as the pound’s early strength ebbed.

According to the FT poll tracker, the Conservatives have an 18-point lead over Labour, with bookmakers offering odds as low as 1/10 on a Tory victory. Electoral Calculus predicts a Tory majority of 130, compared with the current majority of 17.But Mrs May admitted on Wednesday morning: “Every election is a risk.”

https://www.ft.com/content/033bebde-24d5-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 19, 2017 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
The problem -- or is it a problem? -- is that this election will become a second referendum on Brexit. That is double-edged. On the one hand, if she loses, it would likely scupper Britain's attempt to free itself from the declining EU; on the other, if she wins it, it


I think in Scotland this will be the case;
If the SNP holds nearly all of Scotland's seats as they secure in 2015, It gives Nicola Sturgeon the mandate and the momentum to seek another referendum on separating from the UK and staying in the EU.

For the rest of the UK;
With Article 50 triggered there isn't much you can do now. They are leaving the EU in two years, the only thing to discuss is terms.

The Legal debate about of that bell can be unrung is such a mess it would seemingly be easier to leave, then re-apply.

The election is really about who you want negotiating the exit;
May or Corbyn.

Don't get me wrong, with any election there are risks
But you have a unique situation here where a good portion of the Labour Party would sooner lose and lose big just to dump Corbyn.

The Conservatives also have to worry less about UKIP taking votes from the right, as their sole reason for being is largely already in place.

It certainly early;
But I wouldn't be shocked to see the Tories secure 400 seats and the LibDems to be surprisingly close to the Labour Party in seats because Tim Farron is going to run pro EU better than anyone else.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 7:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Number of Labour MPs standing down before General Election continues to grow amid Corbyn skepticism

A dozen of the party's MPs will not contest their seat, along with four Conservatives, one Lib Dem and Douglas Carswell
Rachel Roberts |

7 hours ago|

The number of Labour MPs who have confirmed or are expected to stand down rather than contest their seats is rising amid fears the party could face a trouncing at the polls and concerns over the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.

The surprise decision by Theresa May to call a snap election could see several high-profile bids to return to Parliament as well as a number of departures.

Labour MPs have until 20 April to announce whether or not they will contest their seats at the election on 8 June.


Read more

I predicted this election, and here's what I predict will happen next
Nigel Farage says he will not stand in the general election
Forget election worries with this utterly hypnotic train gif

A dozen have now indicated they intend to get off the Commons stage – but two of these are remaining in politics and hope to become Mayors of Liverpool and Manchester.

Four Conservatives and one Liberal Democrat have also announced their intention to stand down, along with newly independent Douglas Carswell, who was previously Ukip’s only MP.

Conservatives

George Osborne, Tatton

One of the least surprising announcements of the last few days, given that the former Chancellor will soon have his hands full editing the Evening Standard. He has various other outside interests, including lucrative after-dinner speaking engagements and financial consultancy work for Black Rock. But Mr Osborne left the door open for a return to politics at some stage, saying he is leaving “for now”.

Gerald Howarth, Aldershot

The backbench Brexiteer is standing down at the age of 69.

He said: “I have every confidence in the outstanding leadership of Prime Minister Theresa May and I have assured her of my fullest support from beyond the Palace of Westminster.”

Simon Burns, Chelmsford

A veteran Tory MP of 30 years, he served as a health and transport minister during his time in Government. He said “now is the right time” for him to go.

Angela Watkinson, Hornchurch and Upminster

The former Tory Whip who has been an MP since 2001 is stepping down for health reasons after suffering a minor stroke last year.

Labour

Michael Dugher, Barnsley East

The most recent Labour MP to announce he is leaving Parliament is former Shadow Cabinet member Michael Dugher.

Mr Dugher told Politics Home he was stepping down after seven years after an MP to spent more time with his family "with some sadness".

Alan Johnson, Hull West and Hessle

The former postman who rose to become Home Secretary and Chancellor during the Blair and Brown years, Mr Johnson is perhaps the best known of the Labour MPs to have announced their imminent departure.

An MP since 1997, he told his constituents: “Next month will mark the 20th anniversary of my tenure as Member of Parliament for Hull West and Hessle.

“Every day has been a privilege and a pleasure but it can’t go on for ever and the electoral cycle means that each incumbent has to think again about what’s best for them, the constituency and the Party.

“As far as the constituency and the Party are concerned, no MP wants to put them through the anguish of a mid-term by-election, so for me the personal decision is whether to retire now or in 2022 when I’ll be into my 70s.“

Mr Johnson has written several books and is a regular guest on the BBC’s This Week programme.


Andy Burnham, Leigh

Another high-profile Labour MP, Mr Burnham is standing to be Manchester’s new metro mayor on 4 May and always planned to step down from his seat and trigger a by-election if he won.

The former shadow Home Secretary lost the battle to become Labour leader against Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. He told his constituents: ”In standing to be the first elected Mayor of Greater Manchester, I am of course still seeking to represent Leigh on the national stage, alongside the other towns and cities of Greater Manchester.”

Gisela Stewart, Birmingham Edgbaston

A prominent Breixteer, she was one of a handful of Labour MPs to back the Leave campaign, sharing a stage with Conservatives including Boris Johnson in the run-up to the Referendum.

After two decades in the Commons representing the marginal constituency, the Corbyn critic said she is leaving because it is “time to pass on the baton.”

Before she won the seat when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997, Edgbaston was a Conservative stronghold and could fall to the Tories again with Ms Stewart’s departure.

David Anderson, Blaydon

The shadow Scotland and Northern Ireland Secretary has announced he will not seek re-election because of health reasons, his age and family needs.

Jim Dowd, Lewisham West and Penge

A former chief whip who joined Parliament in 1992 during the Major years when Labour was stuck in opposition, he denied Mr Corbyn’s leadership is a factor in his decision to stand down, although he has called for a change of leadership.

“If a week is a long time in politics, then 25 years is an eternity,” he said.

Tom Blenkinsop, Middlesborough South and East Cleveland

Mr Blenkinsop was forthright about his reasons for standing down after seven years in Parliament, citing “irreconcilable differences” with the Labour leader.

He said on his personal website: “I have made no secret about my significant and irreconcilable differences with the current Labour leadership.

“It is because of these differences I feel I cannot in good faith stand as the Labour candidate for Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland.”


Rob Marris, Wolverhampton South West

Mr Marris will step down from a seat which the Conservatives will see as ripe for the taking as he had a majority of just 801 at the 2015 election.

He served in the shadow Treasury team under Jeremy Corbyn until he quit midway through a committee meeting, telling MPs he could not serve under his leadership.

His statement explaining why he will not stand in the forthcoming election simply says he believes it is the right time to go.

“At my age and after 11 years in Parliament, I have decided that it’s time to step down and support a new Labour candidate for the city.”

Pat Glass, North West Durham

The MP, who became shadow education secretary under Jeremy Corbyn for just two days before resigning, had already announced she would step down in 2020 when the next election was expected.

Steve Rotherham, Liverpool Walton

A Corbynite who served as the Labour leader’s closest aide, Mr Rotherham is expected to stand down because he is running to be Liverpool’s new metro mayor.

His constituency is said to be the safest Labour seat in the country. Rumours have circulated that Mr Corbyn’s son Seb might contest the seat, but these have been denied.

Iain Wright, Hartlepool

The MP said in his statement only that he wants to do “other things” after being in Parliament since 2004, when he succeeded Peter Mandelson. The seat is understood to be one of Ukip’s key targets.

Andrew Smith, Oxford East

The long-serving MP and former chief Treasury secretary cited his age as the reason for stepping down in his statement to his constituents.

Fiona MacTaggart, Slough

One of just 13 MPs to vote against holding the snap election, she wrote in a letter to Labour colleagues than she had become “bored by the political squabbles over personalities and I know I don’t still have the passion which has driven my politics for 20 years.”



Lib Dems

John Pugh, Southport

The Liberal Democrats are hoping to utilise their pro-Remain position to recapture some of the seats they lost in 2015, but one of their nine MPs has announced he is standing down. The 68-year-old entered Parliament in 2001.

Ukip

Douglas Carswell (Clacton)

He was the party’s only MP until he resigned from the party amid fierce in-fighting and declared himself an independent, having previously defected from the Conservatives to Ukip.

Former Ukip donor Arron Banks had announced his intention to stand in the Clacton constituency.

Mr Carswell said in his statement he intends to vote Conservative in the election, and that he is looking forward to “being able to read newspapers without first appearing in them.”

Nigel Farage, who is not an elected MP, has also confirmed he will not be standing for election in June

http://www.independent.co.uk/n.....93931.html
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The seats that could decide the election

By Peter Barnes
Senior Elections and Political Analyst, BBC News


23 April 2017

From the section UK Politics



There are 650 constituencies in the United Kingdom. But the election campaign over the coming weeks will be concentrated in the marginal battleground seats - the ones with small majorities that are most likely to change hands.

There's no official definition of a marginal seat but people often look at constituencies where the majority - the gap between the first and second placed parties - is under 10%.

Most marginal seats in the UK - based on 2015 results


Constituency

Winner

2nd place

Majority

Majority %

Gower Con Lab 27 0.1
Derby North Con Lab 41 0.1
City of Chester Lab Con 93 0.2
Croydon Central Con Lab 165 0.3
Ealing Central & Acton Lab Con 274 0.5
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk SNP Con 328 0.6
Ynys Mon (Anglesey) Lab PC 229 0.7
Vale Of Clwyd Con Lab 237 0.7
Brentford & Isleworth Lab Con 465 0.8
Bury North Con Lab 378 0.8


Chart showing the most marginal seats in the UK - based on 2015 results
For politicians it's obviously a good idea to focus on these battleground seats. There's not much point in spending lots of time and money in constituencies that they already hold comfortably, or where they're so far behind they have no realistic chance of winning.

There are exceptions to this. In 2015 the SNP surge in Scotland was so powerful that apparently "safe" seats fell. And the collapse of the Lib Dems saw them lose some seats they'd held with sizeable majorities.

Such large swings are rare though. And even in 2015 the Conservative/Labour fight took place almost exclusively in the battleground seats.

Eighteen seats changed hands between the two biggest parties. Only one of those, Ilford North, had a majority above 10%.

Conservative targets


Seats the Conservatives will be gunning for include Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East, Birmingham Edgbaston and Wirral West.


Map showing the 47 seats where the Conservatives came second in the 2015 general election
Recent elections have seen poor returns for the Conservatives in the north-east of England but it's a part of the country that voted strongly for Brexit and Prime Minister Theresa May hopes her focus on the issue will help them gain seats.

Labour-held Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East is a good example. Its voters backed Brexit and there's a considerable pool of almost 7,000 voters who went for UKIP last time.

That's one group the Conservatives will target. If they trust Theresa May to deliver Brexit, the Conservatives will argue, why vote UKIP? Picking up a decent chunk of them would be enough to overturn Labour's majority of 2,268.

Other pro-Brexit Conservative targets in the north of England and the Midlands include Halifax, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Derbyshire North East and Walsall North. In all of them there's a sizeable number of people who voted UKIP in 2015 and a small Labour majority.

Birmingham Edgbaston is a different sort of target. Its voters were fairly evenly split on Brexit. But it's a relatively prosperous part of the city which used to be a Conservative stronghold.

An increase in the number of ethnic minority voters helped Labour last time round but it's always remained in the Conservatives' sights. With Gisela Stuart standing down after 20 years as the MP, they'll see an opportunity.

Wirral West is one of 10 seats lost by the Conservatives to Labour in 2015 - Esther McVey was ousted as the MP after just one term.

With their current lead in the opinion polls, they'll be highly optimistic they can take it back - along with other seats lost in 2015 such as City of Chester, Dewsbury and Lancaster and Fleetwood.

Labour targets


Labour start the election as the clear underdogs compared to the Conservatives. But Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn hopes to win over voters during the campaign.

Their top targets include Gower, Croydon Central and Renfrewshire East.


Map showing the 48 seats where Labour came second in the 2015 general election
Gower, in South Wales, has the smallest majority of any seat in the country - a mere 27 votes. If just 14 voters switched from the Conservatives, Labour would take it so they will be campaigning for every vote. Before 2015 they'd held it for more than 100 years and it had been considered a Labour heartland seat.

Other losses from 2015 they'll want to reverse include Morley and Outwood, former Labour shadow chancellor Ed Balls's old seat, and Plymouth Sutton and Devonport.

In recent years London has been Labour's strongest region. They made seven gains here in 2015 and Sadiq Khan went on to win the 2016 mayoral election comfortably.

Croydon Central was a seat they narrowly missed out on last time but they reduced the Conservative majority to just 165 votes. In a sign of their intentions, Jeremy Corbyn went to the constituency on the very afternoon that MPs voted to allow the early election.

Hendon and Harrow East are other London targets

Labour lost 40 Scottish seats to the SNP in 2015. In many cases the swing was so massive that they now look beyond reach.

But they'll be looking for any signs of the beginning of a fight back. RenfrewshireEast, which used to be Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy's seat, is their top target. Next down the list is Edinburgh North and Leith.

Lib Dem targets


The Lib Dems are starting from a low base. They lost 49 seats in 2015, holding on to just eight, and are looking for a recovery this time.

Their targets include Twickenham, Dunbartonshire East and Yeovil.


Map showing the 16 seats where the Lib Dems came second in the 2015 general election
As the most pro-EU of the national parties, the Lib Dems will particularly target seats like Conservative-held Twickenham in London, which voted heavily for Remain in last year's referendum and where Sir Vince Cable is returning to refight his old seat.

The December 2016 by-election in neighbouring Richmond Park, where they overturned Conservative Zac Goldsmith's 23,000 majority, showed their strategy could work.

Other pro-Remain constituencies in their sights include Kingston and Surbiton and, outside of London, Bath and Cambridge - the latter held by Labour.

Dunbartonshire East also voted for Remain but here they must challenge the SNP, another strongly pro-EU party. Nevertheless, the Lib Dems will think they have a chance.

Jo Swinson was ousted there in 2015 when the SNP's vote surged by 30%. She's standing again and won't need much of that back to recapture the seat.

The pro-EU message probably won't go down so well in Yeovil, which backed Leave in the referendum. But it's a constituency that the Lib Dems held for more than 30 years before it went Conservative in 2015 - Paddy Ashdown used to be the MP - and the broader south-west region used to be a stronghold for the party.

Other targets here include Thornbury and Yate, on the outskirts of Bristol, and St Ives in Cornwall - a county where the Lib Dems used to dominate.

Other parties


With the SNP already holding 56 out of 59 seats in Scotland it's clearly impossible for them to make significant gains. But they'll be gunning for Labour's only Scottish constituency, Edinburgh South, and they're not far behind in Lib Dem-held Orkney and Shetland.

Plaid Cymru are just 229 votes behind Labour in Ynys Mon (Anglesey). But there could also be an intriguing battle in Rhondda if party leader Leanne Wood decides to stand, even though mathematically it's a lot further down the target list. She achieved a tremendous 24% swing there in the Welsh Assembly election last year, so a gain is not out of the question.

UKIP's results in 2015 demonstrated again how parties can suffer under the first-past-the-post electoral system.

They received 3.9 million votes but won just one seat, Clacton, and even there the victor was Douglas Carswell, who had defected from the Conservatives.

The problem UKIP have is that their vote is very evenly distributed compared to the other main parties - in fact, so much so that they're not even a close second in many places.

Former leader Nigel Farage fell 3,000 votes short in Thanet South last time. They're also close in Hartlepool where the Labour MP is standing down so that may be their best chance.

The Green Party are also badly served by first past the post. The only seat where they start in second place within 10% of the winner is Labour-held Bristol West. The Lib Dems are also a significant presence in that constituency and even the fourth-placed Conservatives got nearly 10,000 votes in 2015 so there a lot of possible outcomes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39655379
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

General election 2017: Labour leader a 'mugwump', says Johnson


Boris Johnson, Jeremy CorbynImage copyright PA, AFP


Boris Johnson has used his first intervention in the election campaign to mount the Conservatives' most personal attack yet on Jeremy Corbyn.

Writing in The Sun, the foreign secretary accused the Labour leader of being a threat to the UK and described him as a "mutton-headed, old mugwump".

He cited Mr Corbyn's previous comments on nuclear weapons and Nato.

Labour said it was the sort of "look at me name-calling you would expect in an Eton playground".

The Oxford English Dictionary defines a mugwump as someone who remains aloof or independent, especially politically.



The Labour leader has insisted he supports Britain's armed forces.

In an interview on Sunday, Mr Corbyn said he would not recall 850 British troops sent to Estonia as part of a Nato deployment on Russia's eastern flank - one of its largest in decades - but also wanted better relations with Moscow.

He said he was opposed to the "first strike" use of nuclear weapons and did not believe the renewal of Trident was a solution to the world's problems.

Labour, however, has insisted it remains committed to keeping the UK's deterrent in its current form and the pledge will be in its manifesto.


Media captionLabour's John Healey tells Today using "mugwump" to describe Jeremy Corbyn demeans the position of Foreign Secretary

In a deeply personal attack on Mr Corbyn, Mr Johnson said people did not realise the "threat" posed by the Labour leader.

"They say to themselves 'He may be a mutton-headed old mugwump, but he is probably harmless'," he writes.

Mr Johnson suggested that with Mr Corbyn as prime minister, Britain would be ill-equipped to deal with an assertive Russia, North Korea's "semi-deranged regime" and so-called Islamic State, which he described as an "evil Islamist death cult".

"He seems to have no grasp of the need for this country to be strong in the world," he said.


Analysis


Boris JohnsonImage copyright Reuters
By James Landale, BBC diplomatic correspondent

So far in this election campaign, Boris Johnson has had an unusually low profile.

So low in fact that there were claims he had been deliberately sidelined by Downing Street.

Well, not any more.

In a speech in London, the foreign secretary claimed that the leadership of Theresa May would keep Britain safe.

And in an article for the Sun, he argued that the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn would not.

This campaign may have many weeks to go but it has already got personal, deliberately so.


Framing the election as a straight choice between Mr Corbyn and Theresa May, Mr Johnson also said the former would be "calamitous" for Brexit given the confusion in Labour ranks over its policy.

"Corbyn's approach would be a recipe for paralysis and uncertainty - and for Britain to get totally stiffed in the negotiations."

In a speech to foreign diplomats in London on Wednesday, Mr Johnson said the Conservative government was committed to "upholding the country's values and strengthening Britain's national interests" around the world.

The snap election on 8 June, he believed, would be a "source of continuity, certainty and stability".

Shadow housing secretary John Healey said Mr Johnson's comments about Mr Corbyn were "look at me name-calling you would expect in an Eton playground".

"I think it demeans the position of Britain's foreign secretary and I'd say to him.. on a serious point, don't attack the person, debate the policies, get your leader to do that on TV with Jeremy Corbyn", he told Radio 4's Today.


Emily Thornberry
Image caption
The shadow foreign secretary said Mr Johnson was talking "delusional nonsense"

Shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry said Mr Johnson - a key figure in the Vote Leave campaign in the EU referendum - had played his part in the "greatest diminution of British influence on the world stage in a generation".

"It seems Boris Johnson has finally been allowed out of hiding, on the condition he only talks delusional nonsense.

"He talks up a fantastical vision of Britain as a global trading nation, yet he and Theresa May are putting at risk our trade with the EU - by far our largest trade partner - by threatening an extreme Brexit where we crash out on WTO terms.

"With his crass and offensive remarks, Boris Johnson has single-handedly damaged Britain's chances of getting a good deal with the EU."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39727489
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 27, 2017 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Conservatives lead over Labour cut by seven points ahead of general election, latest poll shows


Poll suggests somewhat tighter race than other surveys
Samuel Osborne |
@SamuelOsborne93 |
Thursday 27 April 2017 12:29 BST|
316 comments |



The Conservative lead over Labour has shrunk by seven points, a new poll has indicated.

The YouGov poll, conducted for The Times, showed support for the Tories at 45 per cent, down three percentage points from last week.

Labour increased its support by four points to 29 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats were down two points to 10 per cent and Ukip rose two points to seven per cent.

The poll excluded "don't knows" and "would not vote" responses.


General Election 2017: What you need to know

The YouGov poll suggested a somewhat tighter race than the picture painted by two other surveys published earlier on Wednesday, which had shown the Conservatives enjoying leads of 23 and 22 points over Labour.

One poll showed Prime Minister Theresa May to be rated more highly as a leader than Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair during their best years.

The Ipsos Mori poll found 61 per cent of voters saw Ms May as the "most capable" of the leaders of the main political parties, while labour's Jeremy Corbyn was rated at 23 per cent.


It also said the lead of the Conservatives was equal to that commanded by Ms Thatcher before her 1983 landslide victory.

Ms May, who replaced David Cameron as prime minister shortly after last June's EU referendum shock, repeatedly ruled out a snap election until she announced the 8 June vote last week.


Read more

May's leadership more popular than Thatcher or Blair, poll reveals
Majority of British voters 'believe Brexit was wrong decision'
Conservatives on course for landslide victory, polls suggest
Corbyn may not take part in TV debates not involving May
May faces Tory backlash after indicating plan to ditch ‘triple lock’

She is seeking to bolster her majority in parliament ahead of potentially disruptive EU divorce talks and has gambled that the low level of support for the Labour Party under Mr Corbyn gives her a good chance to achieve that.

The Times YouGov poll also showed the majority of British voters believe Brexit was the wrong decision for the first time since the referendum.

The survey found 45 per cent of respondents thought it was the wrong decision compared with 43 per cent who said it was right, while 12 per cent said they did not know.

British voters split 52-48 percent in favour of leaving the EU at the referendum, which the Government has said cannot be reversed.

http://www.independent.co.uk/n.....04796.html
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 8:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( looking at the graphic which is posted on article , the tory lead is still pretty big , 15 % over labour is a big lead and most of labour's support is concentrated in London and its core ridings it already holds , 30% of the vote in a tory held seat wouldn't be enough to win new ridings )


Tory lead over Labour slips in latest election polls


Toby Meyjes for Metro.co.ukTuesday 2 May 2017 12:27 pm




Tory lead over Labour slips in latest election polls
Labour have closed the Tories lead to 15 points (Picture: Getty; PA)

No one has given Labour much hope of overturning the Tory government in the June election but according to the latest election polls they are drawing closer, if only marginally.

The PA’s poll of polls shows that Labour are now 15 points behind the Conservatives compared to 17 at the beginning of April and that support for Ukip has fallen by four points to 7%.


NUS to provide free tampons and towels for female students across the UK»

Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said today that he was ready to claim the ‘vacancy for opposition’, however according to the poll his party will collect just 10% of the vote, a full 20 points behind their opposition.

Support for the Green Party appears to have remained fairly unmoved at 3%.

You only only have to look at the Eu referendum and the US election to know that polls have the capability to be wrong.


Tory lead over Labour slips in latest election polls
The latest polls show a steady increase in support for Labour (Graphic: PA)

However, if the percentage share of the vote stays the same it will mean the Tories will have increased their lead substantially from 2015, which is why people have been arguing that Theresa May felt fairly safe when calling the snap election.

While Labour’s poll projection of 30% is the same as when Ed Miliband ran for government, the Conservative lead will have risen from 37% to 45% – and that is after Brexit.


US issues terror warning to Americans travelling to UK and Europe»

Those extra Tory votes may have come from Ukip which gained 12% of the vote in 2015 to just 7% now under Paul Nuttal.

Of course, the First Past the Post system the UK uses means that vote percentage doesn’t translate to seats in parliament.

For instance. even though Ukip gained 12% of the vote in the last election they only secured one seat.


Read more: http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/02/.....z4fvUd4hC7
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PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There seems to be an effort to make this election appear more interesting than it actually is based on the headlines. It seems the consensus is the Labour Party will be crushed its now simply a debate of by how much.

If you throw out the highest and lowest polls for the Tories over the last ten days the lead is between 13% & 23% if I back out the two lowest and highest over the last ten days its between 16% & 22%.

The Tories secured their current majority with 37% of the popular vote, their lowest level of support in any poll over the last ten days is 42% (As high as 49%)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
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