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RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Mar 26, 2017 9:38 am    Post subject: Liberals drop to 2nd in new forum post budget poll Reply with quote

( it turns out people didn't really like the budget much and the liberals support is going down , what also gets me is this poll is being done by forum . the same pollster hired by the government to do polling for them on the same issues )



Justin Trudeau's popularity takes a hit

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau answers a question during Question Period in the House of Commons on...


Antonella Artuso, Toronto Sun
Mar 25, 2017
, Last Updated: 11:05 AM ET


The Justin Trudeau Liberals are now trailing the Conservatives slightly after delivering a widely unpopular budget this week, a Forum Research poll shows.

Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, president of Forum Research, said there were several items that drew a strong negative response in Thursday’s budget and that added up to a drop in popular support for the government.

The cancellation of a tax credit for public transit users, the end of Canada Savings Bonds and higher taxes on alcohol turned off many Canadians.

“When you add it all up, probably everyone has something they don’t like about the budget,” Bozinoff said Friday.

The federal Liberals are now the first choice of 36% of decided and leaning voters, down from 39% last month.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives, who are in a leadership campaign, have the support of 38%, up from 35% at the end of February.

The NDP stands pat with 15% support, the Bloc Quebecois are down one point to 6% and the Green Party remains at 4%.

Four in 10 Canadians polled did not like Trudeau’s second budget and roughly the same number of people said they would be less likely to vote Liberal in the next federal election because of it.

Only 14% approved of the budget, while another 36% had no opinion and 10% said they didn’t know.

Perhaps more worrisome for the governing Liberals was the poll finding that 37% believe the budget will be bad for the economy and 41% think it will hurt the middle class, a key voting demographic.

Another 31% conclude the budget will have a neutral effect on the middle class and 10% see it as a good thing for that group.

“These budgets that continually increase taxes or phase out tax credits, which is kind of the same thing in people’s minds...I think they become a bit much for people,” Bozinoff said. “And I think that’s what they were feeling about some of these items.”

Budget commitments to enhance parental leave and child care services received a positive response, but Bozinoff said the loss of the tax credit for public transit appears to have really soured Canadians on the Liberals’ fiscal plan.Across Canada, Liberal support held in British Columbia and Quebec, but dipped a bit in the Atlantic Region and plunged in the prairies and Ontario.

Forum Research surveyed 1,029 Canadian voters and the results are considered accurate plus or minus 3%, 19 times out of 20.

aartuso@postmedia.com

**********

Something else that won't fly:

Privatizing the country’s airports is opposed by 45% of Canadians, a Forum Research poll found.

The Justin Trudeau government has been pondering the sell off of some of the country’s largest airports to generate billions of dollars — money it could use to fund its major infrastructure plans.

Forum Research uncovered strong opposition to the idea although about one-quarter of those polled were undecided and one in 10 liked the idea.

The pollster noted a mixed reaction when floating other budget items past voters.

Big yawn:

A significant number of people — 35% — couldn’t care less about the end of Canada Savings Bonds but 26% are not happy about this. Another 21% were okay with their demise, and 19% had no opinion.

Loved it:

Most Canadians polled support the fed’s new investment in childcare (52%) and almost half backed the increased parental leave in the budget.

Hated it:

Canadians were not pleased that the budget ends the popular tax credit for transit passes. The poll found that 37% think that’s a bad move with only 16% supporting it.

More taxes please:

Almost half (46%) of Canadians liked the increased tax on alcohol announced in the budget, while 37% gave it the thumbs down

http://cnews.canoe.com/CNEWS/C.....13019.html
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I am sure there will be an EKOS or Nanos poll released in moments with the Liberals back out in front; Likely by miles.

In the mean-time;
There are some interesting takeaways from the polling over the last few months.

1) The Liberals have massive leads in Eastern Canada and Quebec over the next closest party which does bump the national number significantly.

2) The CPC is will ahead of the NDP in Quebec and in the MoE of the BQ which is actually a bad thing as 5 of the 12 MPs in Quebec are there with less than 35% of the popular vote in their ridings. In the case of Bernard Généreux, less than 29%. The CPC benefited from four way races in some riding and those races are now gone.

3) The support for the CPC in Ontario seems to be real. They have been ahead or in the MoE over the last few months even in polls that have the LPC way out ahead nationally. Even if tied in Ontario because of the disproportionate support the LPC receives in the 416 area that potentially represents a 12 seat gain for the Tories, if there is a lead then its a different story.
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I believe there is Nanos numbers out this week that show different numbers but just cause the pollster can't agree isn't reason to discount this poll . and in the last US election we saw first hand how unreliable some of them were and how some were used by liberal media to try and boost there candidate .


1 . the liberals do have a huge lead out east , but the problem for them is they cannot gain any seats there and is highly unlikely any new east coast ridings would ever be created due to population declines


2 . the liberals are doing better in quebec , the ndp also seems to be having a tough time getting the kind of traction they had after 2011 .

3 . the conservatives have polled well in Ontario federally and provincially , the problem is that a lot of that support is in a core 20 or so rural ridings they already hold and in the 905 a place they often poll well but fail to materialise come election . the urban ridings in Ottawa and Toronto seem fairly safe for the liberals and northern Ontario has never been a place they've done that well , although cpc did win Kenora and Sault Ste Marie once .
so the biggest area for potential gains would be the swing ridings in 905 outside of Toronto like Whitby and Burlington


4 . BC is also a huge wildcard federally , is a number of ridings there that are likely to be in play in the future , places that normally voted conservative until liberals or ndp managed to win them in 2015 . I don't think the dynamics will be the same going forward and that might make it harder for the left to hold some of them .
RCO





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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

also considering the fact the liberals shifted from trying to sell the budget to selling marijuana legalisation , isn't that a huge red flag they knew the budget wasn't popular and needed to change the channel ?


clearly eliminated the public transit tax credit hit liberal ridings hard as many are more urban and have transit systems , that's partly what makes the decision to cancel it so hard to understand . your annoying swing voters in many suburban ridings outside of the major cities , places you need to win to hold power

are they honestly assuming they like looking at trudeau more cause he's so good looking and don't care that there being screwed out of a perfectly legitimate tax credit

there popularity likely would of dropped even more if not for having a high profile leader , think what it be if Dion was leader after releasing this budget ?
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with Cosmo that Liberal support will likely rebound. But is the legalization of marijuana really unpopular enough to change votes any more than the transit deductions do? I doubt it. I have just returned from the 'test market' they are running in Victoria BC.

What seems to be happening is that price competition is on the verge of breaking out, and I think this is the problem. Marijuana is officially on sale for $10 a gram, but you can get it for far less if you haggle. A lot less. If someone has a greenhouse full of illegal plants, producing buds around the clock, they want to get rid of the buds as quickly as they can.

Justin doesn't know what to do. I think our officials saw a big opportunity to reap the benefits of another 'sin tax', but capturing that profit isn't going to be that easy. It's turning out to be more complicated than they thought -- just like 'voting reform'.

But who is upset about marijuana use? It's the least problematic of the street drugs. Most of the others have been laced with fentanyl which is a prescription drug. That, crystal meth, and other amphetamines are the problem, and officialdom is silent about that.

I think a small percentage of their support is waking up to the fact that the Liberal Party means to spend, spend, spend, and considers balancing a budget to be reactionary. What saves them is that Paul Martin and Stephen Harper have driven our debt down to acceptable levels, but we have clearly reversed directions on that. The Liberals are not getting the pop they hoped for in employment, and they obviously have no plan to return to balance -- ever. They are increasing taxes in the face of a slowing economy.

I don't like their long-term chances.
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 30, 2017 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

1 . the liberals do have a huge lead out east , but the problem for them is they cannot gain any seats there and is highly unlikely any new east coast ridings would ever be created due to population declines


Agreed.
The point was more that their national number benefits from being at near 50% in Eastern Canada and 40% in Quebec. As they already have all the seats in Eastern Canada the polling numbers out there effectively just artificially boost the national number.

Its why according to the subject poll the Tories would win a majority within only a 2% advantage.

RCO wrote:
2 . the liberals are doing better in quebec , the ndp also seems to be having a tough time getting the kind of traction they had after 2011 .


The NDP and its members had a tantrum at the fact that Thomas Mulcair led them to their second largest seat haul in history.

By chucking him to the curb and replacing him with a leader that will likely have no ties to Quebec they decided the 16 seats they have in Quebec (Their highest provincial total) are expendable.

Quebec is simply reflecting that fact in the polling. Like I noted, its a problem for the CPC as many of their seats were won thanks to a split vote. Even @ 20% in the Province they still may only secure 10 seats.

RCO wrote:
3 . the conservatives have polled well in Ontario federally and provincially , the problem is that a lot of that support is in a core 20 or so rural ridings they already hold and in the 905 a place they often poll well but fail to materialise come election . the urban ridings in Ottawa and Toronto seem fairly safe for the liberals and northern Ontario has never been a place they've done that well , although cpc did win Kenora and Sault Ste Marie once . so the biggest area for potential gains would be the swing ridings in 905 outside of Toronto like Whitby and Burlington


The Tories formed a minority Government in 2006 for the most part without too much of the 905 support that directly bordered Toronto.

It was done on the back of Eastern Ontario, Central, and Southwestern Ontario with an assist to Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara Region.

There are about 45 Seats in Ontario that should be able to go CPC even if they trail the Liberals by 5ish points.

If you can then secure even some marginal support in the area around Toronto you get to over 50.

RCO wrote:
4 . BC is also a huge wildcard federally , is a number of ridings there that are likely to be in play in the future , places that normally voted conservative until liberals or ndp managed to win them in 2015 . I don't think the dynamics will be the same going forward and that might make it harder for the left to hold some of them .


The closer you get to the Pacific the more the Tories need an NDP/LPC vote split to be effective.
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Liberals drop to 2nd in new forum post budget poll

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