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Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't this article makes much of a point. The fact is that public opinion is changing. We are adapting attitudinally to a new, more aggressive USA in the trade world. For decades, the USA has been using access to its own markets and credit system to make political gains. Now it's going to be the other way around, a dramatic change even if it isn't successful.

Poor Justin is caught in the middle. He has been prancng around, the darling of the international left ... doing stupid things like banning Trump from admittance to Canada ... and now, he has to move down the path that Stephen Harper was blazing.

Ironic, no?
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:
I don't this article makes much of a point. The fact is that public opinion is changing. We are adapting attitudinally to a new, more aggressive USA in the trade world. For decades, the USA has been using access to its own markets and credit system to make political gains. Now it's going to be the other way around, a dramatic change even if it isn't successful.

Poor Justin is caught in the middle. He has been prancng around, the darling of the international left ... doing stupid things like banning Trump from admittance to Canada ... and now, he has to move down the path that Stephen Harper was blazing.

Ironic, no?



as you say trudeau isn't in any immediate danger even if his numbers have gone down a little bit , the next election is still 3 years away and attention being paid to leadership races of opposition parties instead and also a lot of the media coverage is focused on what trump is doing not what is happening in Ottawa

he does have some by elections to deal with at least 5 this year but some are in seats so liberal there is no way they'll lose them and the 2 in Calgary are very likely to stay cpc anyways , so they may not be much of a true test of his current support
Toronto Centre





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PostPosted: Mon Jan 30, 2017 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bugs wrote:


Poor Justin ...<> ... doing stupid things like banning Trump from admittance to Canada ... and now, he has to move down the path that Stephen Harper was blazing.

Ironic, no?

Huh?
RCO





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 5:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( although liberal support is down in other parts of Canada , it appears to be as strong as ever in Ottawa vanier where they are having a nomination meeting today and has attracted a large crowd )


Ottawa-Vanier Liberal nomination contest draws large crowds

Hundreds show up to Ottawa conference centre to cast vote for new Ottawa-Vanier Liberal candidate


Beatrice Britneff

Sunday, February 5th, 2017


The large turnout at the Ottawa-Vanier Liberal candidate selection meeting Sunday revealed the Liberal heart of the riding is more alive and well than ever.

Hundreds of party members jammed the parking lot and crowded into a ballroom at the Ottawa Conference Centre Sunday morning to hear speeches from the eight candidates hoping to fill the shoes of the riding’s beloved former member of Parliament, Mauril Bélanger — who passed away from ALS, or Lou Gehrig’s disease, last August. And excited supporters continue to crowd the building’s centre and hand out pamphlets as members walk in to vote.

Braeden Caley, senior director of communications for the Liberal Party of Canada, said today’s turnout has exceeded the party’s expectations.

“What we’re on track for today is the largest Liberal nomination meeting in Eastern Ontario in close to 30 years,” he said.

Caley confirmed that “a hair more than 7,000 people” registered with the Ottawa-Vanier Federal Liberal Association prior to today’s event — which is the first nomination contest that has occurred since the Liberals moved to make party memberships free to all Canadians. While Ottawa-Vanier has been a Liberal riding since 1935, Caley said he believes the open memberships are responsible for Sunday’s large turnout.

Voting is open until three o’clock Sunday afternoon, during which party members will cast their votes on preferential ballots. The candidate with the least number of first-place votes will be dropped after the first round and that process will continue until one candidate has more than 50 per cent of the votes.

Caley said he expects it will take about two hours to count the ballots and announce the winning nominee after voting closes.

If noise and campaign signs are any indication of popularity, there is no clear frontrunner in this nomination race. Rather, the competition will most likely be a close race between three or four candidates.

The hollering and clapping was almost deafening when Mona Fortier, Nicolas Moyer and Véronique Soucy all took the stage for their speeches. A significant number of people were also cheering for Khatera Akbari and crowding the entrance of the conference centre.

Liberal MP Greg Fergus, who represents the riding of Hull—Aylmer, introduced the speeches this morning and spoke about Bélanger’s life, work and legacy.

“Keep always your eye on what’s right to do, what’s right for this community and work it hard,” Fergus said to the crowd. “And work it despite… you cannot get greater conditions of adversity than Mauril had, and he continued working.”

Following his speech, Fergus invited the crowd to stand and sing “Mauril’s version” of the national anthem — nodding to Bélanger’s efforts to change the English lyrics of “O Canada” to make them gender neutral.

Frequent applause from the crowd revealed how much Bélanger continues to resonate with Ottawa-Vanier’s Liberal voters. Bélanger was an eight-term MP, who garnered 57.6 per cent of the votes in the in the 2015 election. As they addressed the crowd, almost all of the eight candidates acknowledged Bélanger’s contributions to the riding.

“There is no natural successor to Mauril Bélanger,” Moyer said in French. “But today’s vote is about the future.”

As they took the stage, all eight candidates touted their experience — for many of them, years of work in the public service — and listed what their priorities would be should they be elected to the House of Commons. Probably the most frequently mentioned issues were affordable housing and poverty; Ottawa-Vanier is a riding home to residents on both ends of the income spectrum.

Candidates also mentioned investing in infrastructure, supporting small businesses and the riding’s economy, getting trucks off King Edward Avenue and promoting multiculturalism and community inclusiveness.

Several pointed to building on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s agenda — including the continued welcoming of new Canadians and refugees. Francis LeBlanc even repeated one of Trudeau’s favourite sayings: “Diversity is our strength.”

Ottawa-Vanier is well-known as one of the few Liberal fortresses in the country, and is home to a large number of Franco-Ontarians and immigrants. Despite a boundary change in 1974, the riding has consistently elected a Liberal member of Parliament to the House of Commons over the last 82 years.

All of those MPs have been men — something Fortier pointed to in her speech. Fortier encouraged voters to elect a female candidate to help address the gender gap in the House of Commons. Today, women account for 26 per cent of the 338 seats.

Securing the Liberal candidacy will mean almost a certain win in the upcoming byelection, which Trudeau has to call by February 19.

The New Democratic Party nominated their candidate, University of Ottawa law professor Emilie Taman, back in November. Taman ran unsuccessfully in the same riding during the 2015 election.

The Conservative Party and the Green Party have not yet nominated their candidates.

Bélanger won the riding in 2015 with more than 24,000 votes. Taman came in second with 19.3 per cent of the vote — followed by the Conservative candidate, David Piccini, with 19.1 per cent, and the Green Party candidate, Nina Dookeran, with three per cent.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/05.....ge-crowds/
Bugs





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PostPosted: Sun Feb 05, 2017 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eight candidates, and it sounds as if they will have to redistribute four candidates' votes before the real contest begins ... they are using a 'preferential' ballot, where people put down their second choices

In this case, the other choice would be having separate votes after each ballot. Which would mean 7000 people would have to line up five or six times on the way to a decision.

This is a safe seat. I am surprised the Liberals aren't using it to beef up their talent.
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( turns out only 2600 or so people actually came out to the nomination meeting , no doubt being a sunday some were busy and such , it will also mean a continuation of the gender shift in Ottawa being 4th city riding to switch to a female mp over a male , Kanata Carleton , Ottawa Centre and Ottawa West Nepean shifted in 2015 , although Gatineau and Hull Aylmer which had ndp women mp's went to liberal male mp's so there isn't really that many more women in Ottawa

it is a very safe seat , the media seems to think that also and virtually written off any possible competition to the liberals here even though it will have no incumbent and was actually a very close riding In 2011 , although ndp and conservatives unlikely to reach 2011 support levels )


Mona Fortier wins Ottawa-Vanier Liberal nomination

Long-time assistant to Mauril Bélanger takes over Liberal bastion in nation’s capital

Beatrice Britneff

Sunday, February 5th, 2017


Liberal voters in Ottawa-Vanier have chosen Mona Fortier as their candidate for the upcoming federal byelection to replace the late Mauril Bélanger, who died in August of Lou Gehrig’s Disease.

After a long and exciting day that brought hundreds of party members to the Ottawa Conference Centre — and seven rounds and four hours to count the preferential ballots — Fortier edged out seven others candidates for the coveted Liberal nomination.

“Wow, I’m really happy about the results,” Fortier told reporters in French following the announcement. “We’re ready for a new campaign and to win once again. We’ve been fortunate to have a four-month head start… and we’re going to all work together.”

Ottawa-Vanier has been without a representative in the House of Commons since Bélanger died at 61. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau must call the byelection before February 19.

Fortier is a fluently bilingual strategic communications consultant and a long-time resident of Ottawa-Vanier. She worked with Bélanger — to whom she refers as a mentor — on his eight federal election campaigns and also co-chaired his 2015 campaign.

Bélanger’s widow, Catherine Bélanger, endorsed Fortier about two and a half weeks ago.

“She has the same values that Mauril and I shared,” Ms. Bélanger told The Globe and Mail. “She has the riding of Ottawa-Vanier in her heart, but also the mind for the job.”

When asked Sunday night what parts of Bélanger’s legacy she would take with her moving forward, Fortier pointed to his commitment to both his constituents and to all Canadians.

“Mr. Bélanger was a people’s person. He worked with every community in Ottawa-Vanier,” Fortier said. “We have to continue to represent all of the riding and also all of the minorities across Canada. Mr. Bélanger did that wonderfully so I will continue that heritage.”

Ottawa-Vanier is one of the few Liberal fortresses in the country, having consistently elected a Liberal to the House of Commons since 1935. Assuming she wins, Fortier would be the first female MP to represent Ottawa-Vanier federally in the riding’s history.

More than 2,669 people braved flurries to cast ballots Sunday out of the approximately 7,000 party members who were registered to vote, according to Liberal Party spokespeople. It took seven rounds and close to four hours of counting ballots before the party announced the results — a strong indication the race was tight. The party will not release the breakdown of votes per candidate.

While the majority of those registered to vote didn’t turn up to cast ballots, Senior Director of Communications Braeden Caley said today’s turnout exceeded the party’s expectations.

Tony Stikeman, president of the Ottawa-Vanier Liberal riding association, said the day was “a bit of a circus… a good circus.”

“Not only is it encouraging, it’s unprecedented,” Stikeman told iPolitics Sunday afternoon.

Sunday’s nomination contest is the first that has occurred since the Liberals moved to make party memberships free of charge. Caley said the party believes the open memberships are responsible for the surge in registrations in Ottawa-Vanier.

The New Democratic Party nominated their candidate for the byelection, University of Ottawa law professor Emilie Taman, back in November. Taman ran unsuccessfully in the same riding during the 2015 election.

The Conservative and Green parties have not yet nominated their candidates.

Bélanger garnered 57.6 per cent of the votes in the 2015 election. Taman came in second with 19.3 per cent of the vote — followed by the Conservative candidate, David Piccini, with 19.1 per cent, and the Green Party candidate, Nina Dookeran, with three per cent. In the end, Bélanger won the riding with more than 24,000 votes.

The riding of Ottawa-Vanier

Apart from being a safe Liberal riding, Ottawa-Vanier is known for being home to a large Franco-Ontarian population, as well as a significant number of immigrants. Fortier described the riding Sunday as a “diverse community” and a “mini Canada.”

The eight Liberal nomination candidates shared many policy priorities. During the nomination contest’s most recent debate last Thursday, many of them expressed a desire to take truck traffic off King Edward Avenue and to ease income inequality in the riding — which is home to some of the poorest citizens in the Ottawa region and some of the richest.

Many candidates also promised to prioritize investing in infrastructure, supporting immigrants and refugees, and promoting small businesses and the local economy, among many other issues.

Following the nomination results, Fortier emphasized that some of her priorities would be the construction of affordable housing and job creation in the riding.

The riding’s residents recently went to the polls for a provincial byelection held on Nov. 17, 2016 to replace Liberal MPP and attorney general Madeleine Meilleur — who resigned in June earlier that year.

Residents elected University of Ottawa law dean Nathalie Des Rosiers as the new MPP. Desrosiers won by a margin of 5,655 votes over Progressive Conservative candidate André Marin — and with 48.5 of the vote.

The late Mauril Bélanger

Bélanger was an eight-term MP, who represented Ottawa-Vanier at the federal level from 1995 until his death in 2016. He served as a cabinet minister in former prime minister Paul Martin’s government.

Following the 2015 federal election, Bélanger was considered a frontrunner for the position of Speaker of the House of Commons. He withdrew his bid after being diagnosed with ALS, but continued to serve as MP for Ottawa-Vanier.

In January 2016, Bélanger became the first MP to use a voice generator in the House. He used an app on his tablet to introduce his private member’s bill, which seeks to amend the lyrics of Canada’s national anthem — “O Canada” — to make them gender neutral. As of Dec. 15, 2016, the bill was before the Senate.

On Mar. 9, 2016, Bélanger served as honorary Speaker of the House for one day, after his colleagues voted in favour of a motion allowing him to do so.

With files from Nathan Caddall

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/02/05.....omination/
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( there is also some news of possible liberal candidates in Markham Thornhill )


Ontario Trade minister Chan won’t run for McCallum’s seat, Markham mayor might


Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti is considering a run at the Liberal nomination to succeed outgoing six-term MP and former cabinet minister John McCallum.


Markham school board trustee Juanita Nathan, left, chartered accountant and former city councillor Khalid Usman, and Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti are considering running for the Liberal nomination in Markham-Thornhill, Ont. Photographs courtesy of potential candidates

http://www.hilltimes.com/2017/.....tion/94730
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Feb 06, 2017 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

back onto the issue of news media coverage of Ottawa Vanier race , the NDP nomination meeting was virtually ignored by the media , I don't even know if there were any articles written about it . when I searched google I never found any , I'm sure it was no accident that the media decided to not cover it at all , obviously they want to just hand the seat back to the liberals

the liberal nomination on the other hand had many and yesterdays nomination was widely published in Ottawa and on other sites covering politics
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

( liberal support continues to trend down , now at 38% nationwide according to Nanos )


Liberals 38.0, Conservatives 32.5, Conservative accessible vote hits three year high in Nanos tracking


By Nik Nanos — Nanos Research — Feb 7 2017


Ballot – Support for the federal parties stands at 38.0 per cent for the Liberals, 32.5 per cent for the Conservatives (a new 12 month high), 16.4 per cent for the NDP, 5.9 per cent for the Greens and 4.9 per cent for the BQ.

Accessible Voters – More than half of Canadians (55.6%) would consider voting Liberal while 47.5 per cent would consider voting Conservative (highest level recorded since 2013). Four in ten Canadians (40.0%) would consider voting NDP and 30.7 per cent of Canadians would consider voting Green.

Preferred Prime Minister – More than four in ten Canadians (45.4%) say they prefer Trudeau as Prime Minister while 20.0 per cent prefer Ambrose, 10.2 per cent prefer Mulcair, 5.5 per cent prefer May and 17.6 per cent were unsure.

Qualities of a Good Political Leader – More than six of ten Canadians (63.3%) say Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 49.2 per cent think similarly of Mulcair. Almost four in ten Canadians think May (38.3%) and think Ambrose (37.3%) have the qualities of a good political leader.

Nanos Party Power Index – The Liberals scored highest but hit a new 12 month low on the Nanos Index (60.2 out of a possible 100 points) while the Conservatives registered 48.9 points, the NDP 45.3 points, the Greens 33.8 points and the BQ 23.9 points (QC only).

The full Nanos Research Report is available here…

http://www.nationalnewswatch.c.....Jna10n2Zjo
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Feb 07, 2017 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The biggest challenge for the LPC will be the NDP selecting a leader.

If they opt for the center-left and someone who is viewed as competent and even likeable it will hurt the Liberals in the areas that Jack Layton did so well in (Urban centers, Northern Ontario, etc)
RCO





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PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

( a new Campaign research poll claims that the liberals and conservatives are tied at 34 % nationwide , although I'd like to see more details of the poll before getting to excited )


Liberals and Conservatives tied in nationwide poll, Grits still strong in Central Canada, but losing younger voters


The survey taken in early February puts each party at 34 per cent public support.


Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals have lost their edge over the Conservative Party of interim Leader Rona Ambrose, a new poll indicates, though the governing party is holding strong in Central Canada. The Hill Times photographs by Jake Wright



By PETER MAZEREEUW


PUBLISHED : Thursday, Feb. 9, 2017 2:00 PM


The federal Liberal and Conservative parties would each win the votes of one-third of Canadians if an election were held now, according to a poll taken at the beginning of February.

A year and four months after taking power, the Liberals have lost about one-third of the voters who supported them in the October 2015 election, according to the poll conducted by Campaign Research, the Toronto polling firm at which Nick Kouvalis, Conservative leadership candidate Kellie Leitch’s former campaign manager, serves as a principal. Richard Ciano, another firm principal, is a supporter and volunteer for Ms. Leitch’s campaign.

Another poll released Feb. 7 by Nanos Research gave the Liberals a five-and-a-half point lead over the Conservatives, who registered a 12-month high at 32.5 per cent support. The Nanos poll was based on a four-week rolling average of responses, while the Campaign Research poll surveyed voters between Feb. 3 and Feb. 6. It asked respondents which party they were most likely to vote for if a federal election were held tomorrow, or if they hadn’t made up their mind, which party they were leaning toward.

The virtual tie between the two biggest parties in Parliament likely has more to do with poor Liberal performance than strong Conservative performance, said Campaign Research CEO Eli Yufest.


Mr. Yufest pointed to negative attention the Liberals garnered in recent weeks over Mr. Trudeau’s vacation on the Aga Khan’s private island, a broken promise to change Canada’s electoral system, political fundraisers with wealthy businesspeople, and comments about phasing out Canada’s oilsands as likely contributors to the Liberal decline.

“There’s no doubt that they’re battling some strong headwinds,” said Mr. Yufest.

The NDP took 16 per cent support overall, with the Greens and Bloc Québécois tied at six per cent each.

Liberals holding strong in Central Canada; losing young voters

The Campaign Research poll shows the Liberals have lost any edge they may have had among young voters; those under the age of 35 were one percentage point more likely to say they would vote Conservative if an election were held now (34 versus 33 per cent support). The Liberals had a three percentage point edge in support from Canadians aged 35 to 44 and among those 65 and over (34 versus 31 per cent, and 38 versus 35 per cent, respectively), while other age categories were either even or one point stronger for the Conservatives.

The Liberals held an edge among female respondents, 36 per cent of whom indicated they would support the Liberal Party right now, versus 33 per cent for the Conservatives and 17 per cent for the NDP. In contrast, more men supported the Conservatives, at 35 per cent, than the Liberals, at 32 per cent, or any other party.

The Liberals had healthy leads among respondents from Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario, while the Conservatives had large leads among respondents from the Prairies, British Columbia, and Alberta.

Liberal defectors evenly split

Sixty-eight per cent of those who said they voted Liberal in the 2015 election indicated they would do so again if another election were held now, according to the poll. About 12 per cent of them said they would now vote Conservative, and 11 per cent NDP.

The Conservatives have managed to hold onto 86 per cent of those who voted for them in the last election, but the NDP was even worse off than the Liberals, with only 65 per cent of respondents indicating they would still vote NDP. The New Democrats bled the most support to the Liberals, at 15 per cent. Green voters were even less likely to still vote Green, with only 47 per cent indicating support for the party now, and 17 per cent suggesting support for the Liberals. The Bloc held 80 per cent of its prior support.

The Campaign Research poll also included some conflicting results about how Canadians view Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. More Canadians (46 per cent) disapprove of the job Mr. Trudeau is doing as prime minister than approve (39 per cent), while the opposite is true for interim Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose—36 per cent approve, 29 per cent disapprove, 35 per cent don’t know—and interim NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair, at 41 per cent approval versus 33 per cent disapproval, while 27 percent don’t know.

However, Mr. Trudeau trounced his rivals when voters were asked who would make the best prime minister of Canada, winning 31 per cent support versus 14 for Ms. Ambrose, and 11 for Mr. Mulcair. Twenty-two per cent indicated none of the current party leaders would make the best prime minister.

Mr. Yufest said he attributed that contrast to the fact that many Canadians know Ms. Ambrose and Mr. Mulcair are interim leaders, and unlikely to be prime minister anytime soon.

The automated telephone poll sampled 1,457 Canadian voters, was weighted to be representative of Canada’s population, and has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent, 19 times out of 20, according to Campaign Research. Subsets such as gender, age, and region, have higher margins of error

http://www.hilltimes.com/2017/.....poll/95816
RCO





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PostPosted: Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Liberal support slides to lowest levels since 2015 election

The Liberals have lost most of the gains they made after forming government in latest quarterly poll report

By Éric Grenier, CBC News Posted: Mar 03, 2017 5:00 AM ET| Last Updated: Mar 03, 2017 5:00 AM ET

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberals have dropped 6.8 points over the last three months in national voting intentions.


Support for Justin Trudeau's Liberals has sharply declined over the last three months, dropping to its lowest levels since the last federal election.

The party has taken a hit in the polls in every region of the country, boosting both the Conservatives and New Democrats as a result. But despite the governing party's worsening fortunes, the Liberals still have as much support today as they did when they secured a majority government in October 2015.


The Liberals have averaged 40.5 per cent support in national polls conducted over the last three months, a drop of 6.8 points compared to the previous quarter. Though that is still above their electoral result of 39.5 per cent, it is a significant shift from the party's steady polling at 46 to 47 per cent throughout 2016.

This is, by a wide margin, the greatest shift recorded in national voting intentions since Liberal support surged in the immediate aftermath of the 2015 election. This shift has all but erased those "honeymoon" gains.

The negative trend coincided with a number of issues that may have sapped Liberal strength, including the government's pipeline decisions, its broken electoral reform promise, the prime minister's cash-for-access controversies and his stay on the Aga Khan's private island in the Bahamas.

Canada quarterly poll averages, Mar. 2017
(Note that past quarterly averages have been revised due to the inclusion of polling data from Nanos Research that had not been available at the time.)

The Conservatives have picked up 3.5 points in the past quarter, boosting the party to 31.8 per cent — nearly identical to the Tories' electoral performance. This is another important shift, as the Conservatives had previously been stagnating under 30 per cent after losing power.

The New Democrats were also up, gaining 2.3 points to hit 15.6 per cent support. That is still down almost four points from their election showing in 2015, support the party has been unable to claw back from the Liberals.

In fact, the NDP's weakness would give the Liberals the potential to win more seats than they did in 2015 if an election were held today, due to gains in Quebec that would make up for losses in Ontario. The Liberals would likely win around 200 seats if an election held been held over the last three months, with about 110 seats going to the Conservatives and just 20 to the NDP.

Green support, at 5.4 per cent, was largely unchanged from the previous quarter.

Liberal woes in B.C., Ontario

The Liberals saw their support in British Columbia drop 7.6 points in the last quarter, the largest quarter-to-quarter decrease any party has seen in any region since the election. The Liberals are still ahead in the province, however, averaging 38.3 per cent, followed by the Conservatives at 27.5 per cent and the New Democrats at 21.5 per cent.

Both parties picked up about three points from the last quarter, but are still below their results from 2015.

B.C. quarterly poll averages, Mar. 2017
In Ontario, the Conservatives picked up 6.2 points and averaged 37.6 per cent in the province, 2.5 points higher than their last election result. The Liberals dropped 7.2 points — their second largest decrease in the country — though still lead with 42.9 per cent.

Ontario quarterly poll averages, Mar. 2017
The margin between the Liberals and Conservatives stands at just over five points. It was almost 19 points in the last quarter.

Conservatives lead in Alberta, Prairies


The Conservatives have picked up support over three consecutive quarters in Alberta, where they lead with 60 per cent. The Liberals, down five points to 25.6 per cent, are still polling higher than their election result in the province.

Alberta quarterly poll averages, Mar. 2017
Prairies quarterly poll averages, Mar. 2017
In Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the Conservatives displaced the Liberals to take over the lead at 41 per cent. The Liberals dropped nearly seven points to 33.8 per cent, while the NDP was up 3.1 points to 17.8 per cent. Along with a 3.1 point gain in B.C., this was the NDP's biggest regional jump this quarter.

Wide Liberal advantage in Quebec, Atlantic

The Liberals won all 32 seats in Atlantic Canada in the last election and still hold a wide lead in the region, averaging 57.7 per cent to the Conservatives' 22.7 per cent, and 13.4 per cent for the NDP. The Liberals' slide of 3.2 points was their smallest in the country.

Atlantic quarterly poll averages, Mar. 2017
The Liberals had a more significant drop in support in Quebec, slipping six points. This decrease reversed four consecutive quarters of gains in the province, largely at the expense of the NDP.

But at 44.7 per cent, the Liberals are still polling significantly above their election haul of 35.7 per cent. This makes Quebec the province in which the Liberals are out-performing their election results by the widest margin — insulating themselves against losses in other parts of the country.

Quebec quarterly poll averages, Mar. 2017
The Bloc Québécois, at 18.2 per cent, narrowly beat out the New Democrats for second spot in Quebec. The NDP was still well below its election performance in the province at just 17.1 per cent. Though that was a gain of 2.8 points over the previous quarter, their 8.3-point under-performance of the last election is the worst of any party in any region in the country.

Of course, the New Democrats are without a leader, as are the Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc and Tories will settle their leadership races in April and May, respectively. The NDP will choose its new chief in October.

Of the three, the polls suggest it is the next leader of the NDP that will have the most ground to make up — assuming, of course, the slumping Liberals don't do it for them.


These quarterly poll averages are based on the results of 12 national and regional public opinion polls conducted between Dec. 2016 and Feb. 2017 by seven different pollsters, interviewing just under 16,000 Canadian adults using a variety of methodologies, including online panels, interactive voice response and telephone interviews.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politic.....-1.4005495
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2017 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

'Sunny Ways' not as bright for Trudeau and Liberals: Poll

By Antonella Artuso, Toronto Sun
First posted: Thursday, March 09, 2017 07:47 AM EST | Updated: Thursday, March 09, 2017 07:52 AM EST



The glow is wearing off of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his “sunny ways,” a new poll shows.

Forum Research president Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said the Liberals have the support of 39% of decided and leaning Canadian voters, down from 51% in November and 42% in January.

“Maybe the honeymoon is finally, finally over,” Bozinoff said. “They are kind of on a downward slope at the moment.”

Still, four in 10 voters think Trudeau is the best choice for Prime Minister and the Liberals would win a majority 174 seats if an election were held today, the poll found.

But cracks in support are showing, particularly in the Atlantic provinces and, to a lesser extent, in Ontario, the poll shows.

“Ontario in my mind is a special case because the Ontario Liberals are hugely unpopular,” Bozinoff said. “And I’m not convinced that there’s not a little bit of negative halo effect, where (the federal Liberals) get tarred with the same brush...so it’s possible they’re getting a little bit of the wind down draft.”

Although Trudeau was praised for emerging unscathed from his recent meeting with President Donald Trump, that hasn’t improved his net favourable score, the report suggests.

Instead, it’s dropped to 1% from 6% in January.

But overall, his approval rating sits at 45%.

“They’re not stratospheric as before – they’re starting to take on baggage,” Bozinoff said. “They’re not the super great approval ratings that he had but they’re approval ratings that (Ontario Premier) Kathleen Wynne would kill for because she’s at, like, 13%.”

The Tories are sitting at 35%, down one point from the last Forum Research poll but up three points from the general election and just four points behind the Liberals.

“They’re getting a little bit of publicity from their leadership race,” Bozinoff said. “Kevin O’Leary jumping in is kind of interesting. It’s going to generate a little bit of enthusiasm, I think, for them.”

However, the Liberals remain “formidable” in most regions of the country, he added.

“The Tories really haven’t established a breakthrough yet anywhere substantial with respect to the Liberals,” he said.

The NDP have the support of 15% of Canadians, and the Parti Quebecois have 7% – both up 3% since January – while the Green Party saw a slight drop to 4%.

Forum Research conducted a random sampling of 1,500 Canadians and the findings have a margin of error of +/- 3%.


FREE RIDE A BAD IDEA

Most Canadians think it’s a bad idea in principle for the federal government to give private, for-profit companies interest-free loans, according to a new study.

A Forum Research poll found that 68% of Canadians oppose the taxpayer-backed largesse, while only 14% were in favour.

Another 18% didn’t have an opinion on the subject.

Forum Research President Dr. Lorne Bozinoff said the poll didn’t probe people’s thoughts on particular companies or industries.

“In general, this is how they feel about it,” Bozinoff said. “Even New Democrats don’t like the idea...no one likes this idea.”

Albertans and NDP supporters were strongly opposed to the interest-free loans, as were those who had completed some college or university, the poll suggests.

The idea was most popular with individuals who have low income, live in Quebec or have a post-graduate degree.

It’s “risky” for government to hand out the loans given public opposition to the idea, Bozinoff added.

“It may be good policy, but it isn’t always good politics,” he said in a statement.

http://www.torontosun.com/2017.....842d491599
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:

FREE RIDE A BAD IDEA

Most Canadians think it’s a bad idea in principle for the federal government to give private, for-profit companies interest-free loans, according to a new study.

A Forum Research poll found that 68% of Canadians oppose the taxpayer-backed largesse, while only 14% were in favour.


Its a strange feeling to be in line with the Liberals on an Economic Policy and be so off line with the majority of the population.
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Federal Liberals support plummets in new poll

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