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RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Byelection defeat is a stark warning for Wynne: Editorial


( you know its bad when the star is admitting wynne may lose the next election )


Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has just two years to reverse a slide in Liberal fortunes underlined by a byelection defeat in Scarborough.


Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown, left, and newly elected Scarborough-Rouge River MPP Raymond Cho after byelection Sept. 1.

Ontario PC Leader Patrick Brown, left, and newly elected Scarborough-Rouge River MPP Raymond Cho after byelection Sept. 1. (Chris Young / THE CANADIAN PRESS)



Sun., Sept. 4, 2016



Three lessons stand out in light of the staggering Liberal defeat in the Scarborough byelection last week:

•Premier Kathleen Wynne can’t rely on mistakes by Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown to win re-election in 2018.


•Recent efforts to bolster Liberal popularity haven’t worked. https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/02/25/free-tuition-for-college-or-university-promised-to-students-from-low-income-families.html Free tuitionEND for many post-secondary Ontario students, detailed in this year’s budget, didn’t sway many voters in Scarborough-Rouge River. And neither did Wynne’s bold https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/06/13/struggling-wynne-shuffles-cabinet-adds-7-new-ministers.html cabinet shuffleEND in June.


•Unless Wynne engineers a drastic change in the trajectory of her government, the Liberals are likely to be routed in the next general election, two years away.


There’s still time to produce a turn-around. But efforts need to be undertaken now to reverse the party’s slide and protect a Liberal legacy of social justice initiatives, public transit expansion, environmental protection and education advances. Considering his past support of hard-right policies, and his much-publicized flip-flopping, Brown hasn’t shown he can be trusted with these files.


People often vote against the governing party in a byelection, venting their displeasure without having to go to the extreme of installing a new administration. This urge to send a signal was, no doubt, a factor in Thursday’s outcome, which delivered victory to Tory candidate Raymond Cho, a Toronto city councillor.

But conventional byelection blues don’t account for the extent of the Liberal wreckage in Scarborough-Rouge River. This riding has been painted Liberal red ever since its creation in 1999.

The turnaround is remarkable. Cho placed a distant third in the previous contest there, in 2014, while Liberal candidate Bas Balkissoon garnered 39 per cent of the vote. Just two years later, Cho nailed down almost 39 per cent of byelection ballots, leaving Liberal candidate Piragal Thiru trailing with just 28.9 per cent.

That didn’t happen in isolation. The Wynne government suffered a stinging repudiation in February when the Conservatives handily won a byelection in Whitby-Oshawa, despite a full-bore effort by the premier that included bringing in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau two days before the vote. All to no avail.

Recent polls confirm that the government is in trouble, with a Forum Research survey indicating that the Tories would have won more than 40 per cent of the vote if an election had been held in August. Just 16 per cent of respondents said they approve of the job Wynne is doing, while fully 72 per cent disapproved.

Even Brown’s humiliating double flip-flop on sex education failed to significantly dent the Conservative appeal in Scarborough-Rouge River. Although he had previously backed the province’s new sex-ed curriculum, a letter bearing Brown’s signature was circulated in the riding declaring that a PC government would scrap it. When the media exposed this reversal, Brown declared he had made a mistake and again expressed his support of the new curriculum. It was hardly an inspiring example of coherent leadership.

The challenge facing the government isn’t that voters have embraced Brown — it’s that they’re rejecting Wynne along with elements of the Liberal record.

Soaring electricity costs are a particular sore point, but the government is also burdened by concern over the sale of Hydro One and a string of anger-inducing scandals. After 13 years of the Liberals in power, there’s a growing sense that it’s time for a change.

More than anything else, too many Ontarians believe they won’t be better off under a Liberal government. Too many have been hurt by the erosion of jobs in Ontario’s industrial heartland. And too few see their circumstances improving with Wynne at the helm.

She appears to grasp this. Speaking after the byelection loss, Wynne said: “I understand, as do my ministers, that the government needs to focus on helping people with their everyday expenses.”

The Liberals have two years to win back Ontarians’ trust, not a huge amount of time. But it can be done if the party reconnects with its roots and finds a way to enhance people’s lives in a way they can see, feel and — ultimately — support.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2016/09/04/byelection-defeat-is-a-stark-warning-for-wynne-editorial.html
RCO





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PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also don't think Wynne's out of the woods yet as they say , there is more trouble ahead for them in next 2 by-elections .

Niagara West Glanbrook - I see no potential for the liberals in this riding at this time , tim hudak did well here even when pc's were doing poorly and outside of Grimsby is few urban voters in the riding , Rick Dysktra the former mp for st catherines may also run for the pc's


Ottawa Vanier - should be a safe liberal seat but I actually think there is trouble here . some factors that work against them , one being the death of federal mp Mauril Belanger has forced a federal by-election and that is going to drain away interest and top level liberal candidates . they will be much more interested in working in Ottawa than having to commute to Toronto as an mpp .
liberal voters are not overly motivated at this time and a lot of younger liberals in the riding will not be easy to get out for a by-election , there may be a lot of liberals at the university of Ottawa but I see a challenge in getting them out to vote in this by election.
its also not clear who the liberal or pc candidates will be and after the win in scarborough the pc's might be able to find a better candidate than normal

well the liberals may still hold this riding but if its by a much smaller margin than before its not going to demonstrate that there is any liberal momentum .
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Tue Sep 06, 2016 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

also wanted to mention the Ontario liberals have done a lot better in Toronto/416 during the general elections than during by-elections , if you look back from 2003,2007,2011 and 2014 they have won most of Toronto's ridings except for a couple ndp seats along waterfront and no pc's were elected .

however if you look thru by-elections during this time there is some odd opposition wins in previously though to be unwinnable ridings . the ndp won York south Weston once during a by-election in 2007 only to lose it next election .
the pc's also won etobicoke lakeshore when popular city councillor Doug Holyday was a candidate ,
and was a couple other ndp wins in Parkdale high park which had been liberal for a while before ndp won and Toronto Danforth a normally ndp riding . also a by-election won by the ndp in Beaches East York a year or so before the 2003 election. the liberals had tried very hard to win it but it still went ndp .
the pc's also won thornhill during a by-election in 2014 , its pretty much a Toronto riding as its rate beside the city and urban , then almost lost it next election , winning by only a couple hundred votes . however had won by-election by a few thousand votes .

so for whatever reasons the liberals haven't done nearly as well in Toronto during by-elections than the actual elections
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RCO wrote:
I also don't think Wynne's out of the woods yet as they say , there is more trouble ahead for them in next 2 by-elections .

Niagara West Glanbrook - I see no potential for the liberals in this riding at this time , tim hudak did well here even when pc's were doing poorly and outside of Grimsby is few urban voters in the riding , Rick Dysktra the former mp for st catherines may also run for the pc's


Ottawa Vanier - should be a safe liberal seat but I actually think there is trouble here . some factors that work against them , one being the death of federal mp Mauril Belanger has forced a federal by-election and that is going to drain away interest and top level liberal candidates . they will be much more interested in working in Ottawa than having to commute to Toronto as an mpp .
liberal voters are not overly motivated at this time and a lot of younger liberals in the riding will not be easy to get out for a by-election , there may be a lot of liberals at the university of Ottawa but I see a challenge in getting them out to vote in this by election.
its also not clear who the liberal or pc candidates will be and after the win in scarborough the pc's might be able to find a better candidate than normal

well the liberals may still hold this riding but if its by a much smaller margin than before its not going to demonstrate that there is any liberal momentum .


Rick Dysktra is a great replacement for Tim Hudak, and an incredible addition to any potential cabinet formed by Patrick Brown if he wins the next election.

I can't see the Liberals going too hard at that riding simply because of how consistently PC its been and the fact that the PCs potentially have drawn Rick Dysktra who is a known commodity in the area.

As for Ottawa-Vanier;
I just can't see it.

If it were to switch hands, maybe NDP?
Assuming the NDP went with a strong bilingual candidate. This riding has the amongst the highest concentration of government employees in Ontario.

If this riding went PC it would be the biggest by-election shocker of the last century.
RCO





Joined: 02 Mar 2009
Posts: 6288
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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
RCO wrote:
I also don't think Wynne's out of the woods yet as they say , there is more trouble ahead for them in next 2 by-elections .

Niagara West Glanbrook - I see no potential for the liberals in this riding at this time , tim hudak did well here even when pc's were doing poorly and outside of Grimsby is few urban voters in the riding , Rick Dysktra the former mp for st catherines may also run for the pc's


Ottawa Vanier - should be a safe liberal seat but I actually think there is trouble here . some factors that work against them , one being the death of federal mp Mauril Belanger has forced a federal by-election and that is going to drain away interest and top level liberal candidates . they will be much more interested in working in Ottawa than having to commute to Toronto as an mpp .
liberal voters are not overly motivated at this time and a lot of younger liberals in the riding will not be easy to get out for a by-election , there may be a lot of liberals at the university of Ottawa but I see a challenge in getting them out to vote in this by election.
its also not clear who the liberal or pc candidates will be and after the win in scarborough the pc's might be able to find a better candidate than normal

well the liberals may still hold this riding but if its by a much smaller margin than before its not going to demonstrate that there is any liberal momentum .


Rick Dysktra is a great replacement for Tim Hudak, and an incredible addition to any potential cabinet formed by Patrick Brown if he wins the next election.

I can't see the Liberals going too hard at that riding simply because of how consistently PC its been and the fact that the PCs potentially have drawn Rick Dysktra who is a known commodity in the area.

As for Ottawa-Vanier;
I just can't see it.

If it were to switch hands, maybe NDP?
Assuming the NDP went with a strong bilingual candidate. This riding has the amongst the highest concentration of government employees in Ontario.

If this riding went PC it would be the biggest by-election shocker of the last century.


I think the past provincial numbers for Ottawa Vanier are deceptive , cause if you look at the past federal results there was some closer races in the riding in 2008 and 2011 . whatever reason there hasn't been a competitive race in the riding provincially for some time , with liberals winning by 20% around each election .
just think the by-election is going to be much closer , I just can't see wynne being able to win any by-election by the kinds of margins she won in 2014 .
the pc's also have a solid base of around 8000-10,000 voters in the riding , that may not sound like much but when turnout drops for a by-election such a base could be enough to make a serious run . Raymond cho won scarborough rouge river with less than 10,000 votes .
the ndp are also likely to take the riding more seriously although Ontario ndp has not won a seat in Ottawa in a very long time .
RCO





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Location: Ontario

PostPosted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 3:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wanted to mention although I think the provincial vote in Ottawa Vanier could get interesting I don't think the federal one will .
I just don't see it being as close as in past and ndp aren't likely to do as well unless they find a star candidate or something . also after an mp died , ridings usually don't change parties like Toronto Danforth and Whitby Oshawa stayed the same .

there is also a lot of civil servants in Ottawa more loyal to liberals than other parties , although I don't know if that loyally extents to provincial liberals as much. there is also usually more interest in Ottawa in a federal vote than a provincial one

the federal conservatives also aren't likely to focus a lot of attention on the riding as its one they have never won and the 2 in alberta are seats they need to hold and more likely to win those by-elections . where is liberals likely to focus more attention on vanier than the 2 or 3 alberta by-elections and find a better candidate than other parties in Ottawa vanier .
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Bas Balkissoon resigns as mpp Scarborough Rouge River

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