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RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 3:26 pm    Post subject: fall provincial election ? possible in Nova Scotia Reply with quote

( there is growing speculation there might be an election in Nova Scotia much sooner than expected and possibly this fall . which would be only 3 years into mandate and earlier than past elections but is seen as little credible opposition in province to stop liberals from winning again )


Premier Stephen McNeil doesn't rule out a fall Nova Scotia election

John Buchanan was last premier to call election 3 years into majority mandate

By Jean Laroche, CBC News Posted: May 30, 2016 6:00 AM AT| Last Updated: May 30, 2016 8:44 AM AT

Stephen McNeil makes a campaign stop in Elmsdale, N.S., shortly before the Oct. 8, 2013 election.


Jean Laroche
Reporter



Jean Laroche has been a CBC reporter for 32 years. He's been covering Nova Scotia politics since 1995 and has been at Province House longer than any sitting member.


Voters in Nova Scotia may be going to the polls sooner than expected, possibly as early as this fall.

There's growing speculation Premier Stephen McNeil is poised to call a snap election.

The party has balanced the provincial budget, a key election promise, but that surplus is razor thin and risks dropping back into deficit if a gamble to keep health spending in check fails. Tentative agreements with the major public sector unions are also in jeopardy now that two key union leaders who agreed to those deals are gone.

Summer is usually the time provincial politicians gear back their schedules and hit the barbecue circuit, but the whiff of a possible election mingled in the smoke has all three parties in the House of Assembly gearing up, just in case.

Candidates before Labour Day

Liberal MLAs and constituency associations without sitting members have been advised they need to have candidates nominated in all 51 electoral districts by Labour Day.

The average length between elections in Nova Scotia has been 3½ years since 1960. If McNeil holds to that pattern, the next provincial election would be April.

However, the Canadian Constitution and the Nova Scotia House of Assembly Act allow governments to hang onto power for up to five years.

McNeil won't rule out fall vote

But McNeil, who decides along with his closest political advisers the next election date, refuses to rule out an early election call.

He and other Liberals are keenly aware his predecessor, Darrell Dexter, might have maintained power had he not waited until the fall of 2013 to drop the writ.

Elxn NS 20131008
Premier Darrell Dexter addresses supporters after his defeat in the provincial election in Halifax on Oct. 8, 2013. (The Canadian Press)

Polling by Corporate Research Associates tends to support that assertion.

In May 2012, just weeks before the NDP's third anniversary as government, New Democrats were maintaining their first place standing in party popularity. The substantial lead the party had enjoyed over its political rivals until then had eroded but it was still the party who would capture the majority of votes.

After that, the Liberals led in the polls until election day on Oct. 8, 2013.

Buchanan capitalized on 3-year mandates

Early election calls served former Progressive Conservative Premier John Buchanan well.

He won back-to-back majority mandates in 1981 and 1984.

Both times, his government served just three years before calling it quits and seeking a new mandate.

baillie-852
Provincial Conservative Leader Jamie Baillie will seek a campaign issue that strikes a chord with the voting public. (CBC)

What McNeil and his campaign team have to weigh in the weeks to come is whether a snap election call might seem too politically cynical and cost them votes, or whether, as Dexter learned in the last vote, waiting longer is worse.

Pros/Cons

Some other factors that may play into that decision:
■Can the McNeil government keep the balanced budget it just passed in balance? The razor-thin surplus is predicated, in large part, on keeping health spending at 2014 levels. An early call would precede a crucial December fiscal update that could confirm the province is in deficit not surplus.
■Union unrest. None of the major union locals representing thousands of public sector employees has signed a new contract with the province, despite tentative agreements. Two of the most powerful unions, the NSGEU and NSTU, will have new leaders, neither duty bound to live up to prior commitments. Job action or a deteriorating labour climate may convince the Liberals to enact Bill 148 and trigger an election on the issue.
■Lacklustre opposition. Opposition Leader Jamie Baillie and recently elected NDP Leader Gary Burrill still haven't found widespread support. Each is looking for an issue that will provide the traction necessary to seriously challenge the Liberals. McNeil's promise to provide every Nova Scotian with a family doctor may be it. Allowing that issue to simmer may give the opposition the time it needs to win support.

Gary Burrill, leader of the NSNDP
It will be crucial for provincial NDP Leader Gary Burrill to win a seat if a fall election is called. (Submitted by James Hutt)
■Shipbuilding jobs. There are currently 1,200 people working at the Irving Shipyard in Halifax — that number is expected to double by 2020. A fall election would put peak employment around re-election time in four years.
■Health restructuring. Although the work to merge health boards is complete, how services are going to be consolidated remains a closely guarded secret. Rolling out closures and consolidations just after an election is less politically risky than just before one.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/.....-1.3602953
RCO





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PostPosted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fall election for N.S. not ruled out

ANDREA GUNN OTTAWA BUREAU
Published May 31, 2016 - 8:58am
Last Updated May 31, 2016 - 11:00am



Candidate deadline fuels speculation, call for fixed voting dates


Opposition leader Jamie Baillie is calling for fixed election dates in Nova Scotia saying the system where insiders decide when the province goes to vote doesn’t work. (STAFF)
Opposition leader Jamie Baillie is calling for fixed election dates in Nova Scotia saying the system where insiders decide when the province goes to vote doesn’t work. (STAFF)

.


CORRECTION: David Jackson, media relations advisor for Premier Stephen McNeil, on Monday confirmed that there would be an MLA in the legislature to represent the constituency of Halifax-Needham this fall. He did not say that the seat would be filled through a byelection.

Premier Stephen McNeil’s office has reiterated plans to hold a byelection in Halifax-Needham this summer or early fall, dampening media speculation about a possible early election call.

David Jackson, media relations adviser for McNeil, confirmed Monday afternoon that there will be a byelection to replace Maureen MacDonald before the fall sitting of the legislature.

CBC reported on Monday that Liberal MLAs and constituency associations without sitting members have been advised they need to have candidates nominated in all electoral districts by Labour Day, fueling speculation about a fall election as the Liberals are riding high in the opinion polls.



Opposition leader Jamie Baillie said Monday that confirmation of the byelection makes a general election less likely.

“It does seem early to me,” Baillie said.

“We’re just over two and a half years in and we’re still waiting to see a plan for doctors,” Baillie said.

Baillie said politicians should be working on dealing with issues important to Nova Scotians like plans for jobs and doctors, not working out the most beneficial time to hold an election to ensure a Liberal victory.

“This is exactly why we have been calling for fixed date elections,” Baillie said.

“Nova Scotia is the only province that does not have fixed-date elections. This current system where. . .insiders decide when Nova Scotians go vote doesn’t work.” he said.

“We need to make sure these things are done in an open, predictable and transparent manner.”

Though McNeil previously supported fixed dates, he has since shifted gears and said set election dates don’t work in other provinces.

Earlier this month Liberal MLAs voted down an amendment to the Elections Act put forward by Tories Karla MacFarlane and Chris d’Entremont that would mandate fixed election dates.

McNeil’s office has yet to officially rule out an early vote. When asked to respond to recent speculation Jackson told the Chronicle Herald the premier has said he’s focused on governing.

“There will be an election at some point in the future but right now the focus is delivering the mandate he was elected on.”


http://thechronicleherald.ca/n.....-ruled-out
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The last election was two and a half years ago?

Stephen McNeil is also very popular;
He could likely secure another four mandate with an election, it just seems so soon.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peter MacKay for PC leader!
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Progressive Tory wrote:
Peter MacKay for PC leader!


If the PCs get crushed in a fall election (which is likely) it could happen
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fall provincial election ? possible in Nova Scotia

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