I agree that wrestling power away from the Obamacrats is fundamental.
But how do you assess that? Polls six months out are hypotheticals rather than facts. I don't say they aren't part of the picture, but they are only a part. The dynamics of the campaign itself changes things. All the polls are (at best) a baseline.
Hillary is probably the most detested person in American politics, at this point. Add to that that she has a criminal indictment hanging over her head. (I think the best chance the Democrats have of winning this election is if they can find some pretext to draft Elizabeth Warren over the head of Bernie's gang -- but that would have consequences.)
Who would be the most effective campaigner against Hillary (and Bill)?
First of all, we have to recognize that it's a dog-fight to get a Republican elected to the presidency, simply due to welfare state, bread-and-circuses programs and racial loyalties. If a fine and decent figure like Mitt Romney couldn't win against Obama -- remember how bad Obama was in the debates? -- maybe it's time to recognize that classy RINOs don't work anymore.
The second thing to recognize is that the media think they are the kingmakers, not the electorate. So you need somebody that knows their game.
The third thing is to recognize that the tectonic plates of American politics are moving, and the Reagan formula for prosperity has played itself out. I mean here the focus on lower taxes, regulatory easing, and international trade. The prospect they put before the American people was that enhanced trade would see the poorer jobs go elsewhere, and better jobs replacing them. It hasn't panned out that way.
In light of all of this, who would be more electable than Trump? Yes, his 'unfavorables' are higher than you would like -- though not as high, or as strongly felt, as Hillary's.
But who can handle the media better than Trump?
But the biggest reason to support Trump is that he has been the one -- along with Bernie -- to challenge the 'expanded trade' doctrine. He wants to renegotiate something, which does not mean throwing the good stuff out with the bad. It means working out a more balanced trade equation. This is a powerful issue that can, in fact, chip off some support from the race-based support of the democrats. Nobody stirs the industrial workforce (the 'Reagan Democrats) like Trump.
He is the one who has framed the main issues of the campaign, and he is the one who has compelled politicians to recognize the permanent loss of industrial jobs as a problem. As well as that all of their 'solutions' on immigration are bollocks as far as the great unwashed multitudes are concerned.
The backdrop is a Democrat administration that has spun off into the absurd. They have a President that is wantonly breaking the law by throwing the borders open. (It's now at the point where border guards are being compelled to release the people they have caught into the population.)
Any Democrat would feel the drag of the Obama administration ... you can already see how Bill champs at the bit, trying to divorce his wife from her association with Obama.
Trump is the campaigner who can go after this stuff best. He is, for one thing, less restrained by political correctness. He is more free to point out that the King has no clothes on, and do it in a way that attracts rather than repels Afro- and Hispanic-American voters. And, most importantly, he is self-funding his campaign, which means that he has more independence than his rivals.
When you pile all this together, what is there to choose between Cruz and Trump, on elect-ability?
I'd be happy with Cruz, as a President, but, in my mind, Trump is more electable, with his softer, more optimistic and humorous approach, and his populism. Both of these would go into a campaign against Hillary with serious advantages. But Trump is the more attractive candidate, with the more coherent plan. Just my view.
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