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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:24 am    Post subject: The Final Gallup Poll: 2012 Presidential Election Reply with quote

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158.....urvey.aspx

Likely Voters:
Romney 49%
Obama 48%

Registered Voters:
Obama: 49%
Romney: 46%

Romney is going to need stellar turnout in Ohio and a surprise in Wisconsin or Michigan, but its interesting and its close.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Care to make a prediction?

I say Romney will win by a comfortable margin.

Anyone else? Just for fun and bragging rights. No money.
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
Posts: 7436
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votes: 21
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I get the feeling its going to be a close one, and I am concerned for the effective ground-game that the Obama campaign has in the states that Romney needs to win.

I think that Romney wins the states he wins by generally larger margins the Obama will win his, but ultimately come up short.

Popular vote:
Romney: 49.6%
Obama: 49.2%

Electoral College:
Obama: 276
Romney: 262

I think it all comes down to Virginia an its 13 Electoral Votes;
If Florida or Ohio don't break for Romney then its all moot anyway, but I get the feeling that if it is close it will be Virginia picking the President.
queenmandy85





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PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It doesn't make much difference who wins. Governments do not have many options. If Romney wins, he will want to get re-elected. He will not stray from the middle ground.
Bugs





Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 4154
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votes: 8

PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

queenmandy85 wrote:
It doesn't make much difference who wins. Governments do not have many options. If Romney wins, he will want to get re-elected. He will not stray from the middle ground.


Sadly, it is looking difficult for Romney at this moment.

I disagree. I think it makes a great deal of difference who wins. The idea that Romney would ape Obama's policies, and that Obama's policies define the center -- is wild.

Applying that same logic, if Obama is re-elected, he has no electoral reason to move to the center. Rather, I think he will now take the gloves off, as he told the Russian vice president. Congress will continue to be 'gridlocked' and Bernanke will get four more years. And, meantime, Obama will get to play with American foreign policy and destroy America's position in the world.

Lets not pretend that Romney is a miracle worker, but the Republicans are sincerely appalled at the $1.2 trillion a year deficit, and the mountains of money that are being borrowed, without even a budget being passed. You could bet that Romney would bring a more business-like order to the financial aspects of government.

The media twist everything. The Obama administration has not even presented a budget to Congress for over three years. The last one they did was rejected by the whole House, without a single supporting vote. But Congressional power ultimately rests of their ability to withhold funds. How can government work in a 'democatic fashion' otherwise? I don't know how this can be legal.

Obama created the Simpson-Bowles Commission to recommend certain financial policies aimed at bringing the deficit down. Obama used it as a smoke screeen. So Paul Ryan, who was on the commission, drafted a budget proposal that improved on Simpson-Bowles by showing a way to handle entitlements. It was a positive step, but the media pilloried Ryan, particularly after Obama took the pains to invite Ryan to speech he was giving, reacting to Ryan's proposals. Ryan foolishly took it as a step towards bipartisanship ... and Obama absolutely insulted him to his face for his efforts. It led to a national TV commercial that showed Ryan rolling his granny off a cliff.

The critics from the right say -- rightly -- that Ryan's budget proposals were mild, compared to what ought to be done to turn things around, and that it didn't even achieve a balanced budget for 20 years. All true, but that's the difference between political reality and accounting.

They are still trying to pin the Ryan budget proposal on Romney, as if they were something evil. And the media help mightily, just as they created the phoney claim that Romney was going to make birth control illegal, even though the Republicans weren't even remotely interested in doing that.

I just can't agree with the Tweedledum-Tweedledee claims, sorry. The Democrats have a great history, but right now they are a corrupt crowd solving their every problem with money ... even though the money has long run out, and now they have to print it.

If the worst happens, see what happens to the price of precious metals in the next little while, and the far-sighted start hedging their investments with a little gold and silver. It's what prudent people do when they see a tsunami of inflation coming towards us.
cosmostein





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votes: 21
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cosmostein wrote:
I get the feeling its going to be a close one, and I am concerned for the effective ground-game that the Obama campaign has in the states that Romney needs to win.

I think that Romney wins the states he wins by generally larger margins the Obama will win his, but ultimately come up short.

Popular vote:
Romney: 49.6%
Obama: 49.2%

Electoral College:
Obama: 276
Romney: 262

I think it all comes down to Virginia an its 13 Electoral Votes;
If Florida or Ohio don't break for Romney then its all moot anyway, but I get the feeling that if it is close it will be Virginia picking the President.


If only I had added a 3% MoE ! ! !
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The polls were generally correct, at least at the end. I have to utter those painfiul words ... "Obviously, you were right, I was wrong." Eww, that hurts.

The American public has opted for gridlock, the implementation of Obamacare, and four more years of Bernanke, spiraling debt, and social and economic decline.

I am saddened. This election will signal to the financial world that the US is not going to take the steps necessary to put its house in order -- all because of the 'rights' of illegal immigrants, large-scale voter fraud, and the concern of single women that they might have to pay for their own birth control.

And, of course, a media that visualizes itself as a 'player' ...

It will bring a currency crisis that much closer. The markets are already down 200 points. Values will soon, no doubt, start their moves upwards, as the hedge funds tap free money to play with equities.

One amusing thought ... who will Obama blame his future performance on? Will he admit that he is, in his second term, inheriting an economy that is worse than what he inherited from Bush?

The next four years will be 'interesting' ...
cosmostein





Joined: 04 Oct 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its not about right and wrong,
It was an interesting exercise and resulted in me watching polls like a hawk and be much more open minded to the process then I had in the past.

Our exchanges made the process much more educational for me, and for that I owe you my thanks and appreciation.

Looking back I have realized that many of the network polls were largely to generate something to talk about in a 24 hour newscycle.

New Hampshire and Colorado were never close, but networks implying that they might have been gave them a few hours of programing filled.
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The Final Gallup Poll: 2012 Presidential Election

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