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cosmostein





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 9:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How many states that I have given Obama do you really think will crumble fast enough to shift into the Romney camp?

If I was looking solely at pollsters that have been friendly to the GOP demo, then maybe I toss New Hampshire and in a stretch MAYBE Michigan? but aside from that we need some major swings in support and I don't care how fast Obama may be crumbling it wont be that fast.

The positive news is this is the first time for the entire election I have seen a path to victory for Romney.

Win Virginia and Ohio.

If you toss Michigan into the fold (which I consider unlikely but still) then Romney finds himself an Ohio and a Colorado away from the White House.
Bugs





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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Michigan is the obvious one. If you have Pennsylvania in the toss-up category, why not Michigan? That's what I wonder. But the real issue is the ones that will shift from "Toss-up" to either "Romney" or "Obama", isn't it? And for that, a shift of 3 or 4% of the vote towards Romney in the last 10 days of the campaign would change everything.

Cosmo, what I am trying to point out is that you are monitoring this through a kind of lagging indicator ... All through the period of the survey, the tide has been running for Romney. Different polls say different things, but the trend seems evident. You average that out, as if these were a kind of measurement error. Romney is gaining support. In Missouri, for example, Romney was behind by double-digits. Now he's ahead. ... in some states, Romney is up 15 points from where he was in the summer, and most of it has come since the debates started on October 3rd. That suggests to me that Romney has a rate of gain of 3 or 4% a week. If that can be sustained through election day, it would produce a landslide.

Let me make the case for the crumbling ...

This election has 'set up' an electorate that's ready to stampede. If Romney were a more impressive candidate, he'd have already created one of those social phenomenon that the describe in the 'the maddness of crowds' ... like a human stampede ... the reason being that a lot of voters have invested far more than normal in the notion of Obama as a Transcendental Figure, a Moses leading America out of the desert of post-modern capitalism. And it obviously isn't working. The fact is, if Romney wins, he will inherit a worse economy than Obama inherited! It's that bad.

The people who are abandoning Obama now are people who made a big emotional investment in the idea of his presidency healing racial rancor in America, but are afraid for their economic futures. That's why women are going for Romney. It's not because they want to modernize the navy. It's because they are worried. But not just women feel that insecurity.

They want to believe that the mythology was true. It isn't so much giving up on Obama, it's the 'giving up on your dreams' that's the hard part. Obama embodied the hopes of millions, and supporters have to be literally disillusioned with him to break the spell.

For every one of these folks who are now willing to tell a pollster that they are favouring a Republican, there are probably two or three that keep their mouths shut. The question is ... what do these people do on voting day?

Between now and then, a lot will depend upon how open people become about their doubts. A lot will avoid the issue by not voting. Some will still vote for Obama. Still, a lot of them will vote Romney and if they declare, they will somehow 'give permission' for others to join them ...

There could be a 'tipping point' here, where it does actually seem like a stampede. Or a craze ...
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I want to believe that there will be some great rush of under reported support, I think that while it will be closer then I had originally expected I just don't see the Minnesota's and Michigan's voting against their own self-interest for the greater good.

We would either need one of the large swings to go Romney (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) that I am not expecting to go Romney to make a difference.

New Hampshire is wonderful, but more a principal victory then a practical one.

The fact that Romney is in Florida today leads me to believe we are in damage control mode rather then on the offensive to gain votes.

Florida needs to be sown up early for Romney to have even the slightest of chances
Bugs





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, we'll soon know.

It sounds like you think that Obama will be the winner.

If that's the case, it will be sad, and testify to the power of the media, and their ability to control what people see and hear.

If I understand what you say, America will opt for four more years of gridlock and worsening economic conditions. On top of that, Obama could be impeached for the Benghazi cover-up. Maybe that's a long-shot, but it will be a real mess.

In the meantime, what do you do? Buy gold and look for a place in the country?
cosmostein





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty much;
Tomorrow will be interesting.
Progressive Tory





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PostPosted: Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the two front runners suck.
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