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Posted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 2:49 pm Post subject: |
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| So Trudeau has a team together that includes Gerald Butts, who worked for McGuinty and is supposedly a big reason for their success in 2003 and 2007. |
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Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:11 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | So Trudeau has a team together that includes Gerald Butts, who worked for McGuinty and is supposedly a big reason for their success in 2003 and 2007. |
I couldn't be more happy;
If I can't get Rae, and I can't get Volpe then by all means bring on Trudeau. |
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Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| While Trudeau might not be someone who is Prime Minister material, could he be the perfect person to rebuild the party? The Liberals are unlikely to form the next govt with virtually any potential leadership candidate. Trudeau might be someone who could take over for the next ten years, rebuild riding associations, improve membership, increase fundraising, and then if he's someone who is seen as a Prime Minister he may have a party that has broader national support and one that could recruit strong leadership candidates. |
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Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | While Trudeau might not be someone who is Prime Minister material, could he be the perfect person to rebuild the party? The Liberals are unlikely to form the next govt with virtually any potential leadership candidate. Trudeau might be someone who could take over for the next ten years, rebuild riding associations, improve membership, increase fundraising, and then if he's someone who is seen as a Prime Minister he may have a party that has broader national support and one that could recruit strong leadership candidates. |
Yeah, absolutely.
While I don't think he would do much of the heavy lifting, he fills much the same role that Obama did. He will make great speeches he will excite the young folks and fill the coffers while the Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod's of the world do a lot of the grunt work in the background.
It really depends what the goal of the LPC is in 2015.
Is it to govern, or is it to grow and sit in official opposition for four years and fundraise and rebuild?
If its the latter then Justin is the man;
Going after the NDP support in Quebec and the ridings the NDP secured in Urban centers is the path of least resistance and it should get the LPC back to over 100 seats, however it will assure that the Tories govern without much interruption till 2019.
The Liberals need to win back the support of the folks who are right-leaning on money and left-leaning on sex but vote with their wallets if they ever want to form government, and Trudeau has no chance going toe to toe with Harper (or even Mulcair) on Economic issues.
However he could destroy the NDP in Quebec single-handed and reinvigorate the champagne socialists in Toronto and Vancouver, leading to a CPC majority with a strong LPC opposition.
If the goal of the Liberals is a six year rebuild across the aisle from the Tories then the list of candidates grows substantially. |
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Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:34 pm Post subject: |
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I think Trudeau also has the potential to recruit star candidates too.
I also can't imagine him being strong on economic issues, but who knows?
One thing I will say about Trudeau, and I think it's something the Liberals should use is this:
| Quote: | “He’s anchored in the left in the way Mr. Harper is anchored in the right.
“He’s trying to bring the party towards the centre but fundamentally it’s a polarizing choice between two sides of the same coin.
“Stephen Harper and Thomas Mulcair are the same thing just at different ends of the spectrum.” |
http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Po.....62706.html
I think it would be genius if the Liberals were smart enough to attack Harper and Mulcair in the same political attack ad. Having a coin with Harper's face on it and then flipping it with Mulcair's face on the other side. They could really get a bang for their buck with an ad like that, in my opinion.[/quote] |
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Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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I think there are a lot of "star" candidates that would run for the LPC, however Trudeau (or any leader for that matter) needs to prove they can win first.
Ignatieff had some pretty respectable candidates that won the nomination, but as I recall there was nearly a dozen candidates that stepped down prior to the election citing "work" or "family" commitments with those commitments coinciding Ignatieff being leader for a year and still trailing Harper by double digits in Ontario.
No one wants to be beaten by a huge margin on election day, and a lot of candidates saw the landscape for what it was and fled.
If the Liberals can show growth I think they can attract solid candidates,
However I think that 2019 will be the election where you start seeing the fruit of the labors of any gains made in 2015, as I don't see folks flocking to run for the Liberals just based on Justin (at least not yet)
I think the CPC will attack the "silver spoon" and the "lack of experience"
When the NDP starts losing ground to the Liberals in a big way in Quebec I would imagine they will attack his experience and his fathers legacy (The Kitchen Accord is still a big deal with many Quebec voters).
I am not entire sure if the LPC attempting to show Justin as "different" isn't just playing into the attacks that the CPC and NDP will be lobbing at him.
He will be one of the least politically experienced party leaders in Canadian history, I would think if anything he will want to be seen as on equal footing as the leaders of the two largest parties.
However painting himself as the "fresh" option may play well in Quebec and various areas that Jack Layton found success in, however fresh can be sold as radical and radical is the reason there are only 36 NDP MP's west of Quebec (36/200 ridings) and only 28 when you back out Toronto.
Justin is far too easy to define with the money the CPC has on hand;
I think the goal has to be to target Eastern Canada, Quebec, and Urban Centers.
Let Mulcair and the NDP do the dirty work against Harper, while the LPC grows fat on wishy washy Quebec and Urban support.
If Trudeau decided he wants to wear the big boy pants and go after the center and Harper leaving Quebec for Mulcair you could see a finish worst then 34 seats.
Without being too tough on him;
He is going to look like a child amongst grown ups in a non-scripted debate environment and unless he has some major business experience he is hiding he will get crushed on stage when it comes to non-social justice issues.
His only saving grace is that Gilles Duceppe and the "bag of smackdown" he brings to the English debate wont be there.
As I have contended for a while;
Justin can beat the NDP, beyond that....
I just dont see it. |
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Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:06 pm Post subject: |
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Trudeau was in a debate club.
I still think Ted Hsu would have been interesting. It will also be interesting to see how David Bertschi and David Merner do in the leadership race. Merner in particular could be interesting to watch with the OM[S]OV weighted riding convention. He's from Alberta, lives in BC, has lived in Quebec and is fluently bilingual. He has also discussed cooperation but I read a blog today and his idea is a bit different. He said he initially planned to be the "pro business" candidate but wants some cooperation with other parties but still appeal to red Tories and "conservation conservatives". If he can do well in Western Canada he could be a dark horse, though if Trudeau runs I don't see how he can be beat. |
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Posted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Another candidate that I thought about was PEI MP Sean Casey. A new face to parliament but he was a lawyer and President of the Paderno Group of Companies. However, I've seen videos of him speaking and he's a bit dull. |
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Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:19 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | Trudeau was in a debate club.
I still think Ted Hsu would have been interesting. It will also be interesting to see how David Bertschi and David Merner do in the leadership race. Merner in particular could be interesting to watch with the OM[S]OV weighted riding convention. He's from Alberta, lives in BC, has lived in Quebec and is fluently bilingual. He has also discussed cooperation but I read a blog today and his idea is a bit different. He said he initially planned to be the "pro business" candidate but wants some cooperation with other parties but still appeal to red Tories and "conservation conservatives". If he can do well in Western Canada he could be a dark horse, though if Trudeau runs I don't see how he can be beat. |
So was I; :D
When it comes to political debates its a whole different animal.
When you are debating within the confines of classical debate rules I am not allowed to bring up your fathers political choices or your personal life.
I actually have warmed to Hsu, but again I have to ask what is the goal of this leadership race? is it to win back the soft left from the NDP or is it to win back the soft right from the Tories or both? |
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Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2012 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| I think Hsu's background had the potential to appeal to Dippers, Greens and some Conservstives. I don't know what his views are but after having a career in finance I think he'd be credible on economic issues, and if he's not to big of a lefty on economic issues I think he could appeal to some conservatives. His science and sustainable development background would probably work on the lefties. |
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Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2012 9:52 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | I think Hsu's background had the potential to appeal to Dippers, Greens and some Conservstives. I don't know what his views are but after having a career in finance I think he'd be credible on economic issues, and if he's not to big of a lefty on economic issues I think he could appeal to some conservatives. His science and sustainable development background would probably work on the lefties. |
As I said above;
If the goal is to compete in 2019 then I think Hsu is a solid option.
However I am not entirely sure if he helps vault the Liberals into first in Quebec. |
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Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2012 10:04 am Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | I think Hsu's background had the potential to appeal to Dippers, Greens and some Conservstives. I don't know what his views are but after having a career in finance I think he'd be credible on economic issues, and if he's not to big of a lefty on economic issues I think he could appeal to some conservatives. His science and sustainable development background would probably work on the lefties. |
As I said above;
If the goal is to compete in 2019 then I think Hsu is a solid option.
However I am not entirely sure if he helps vault the Liberals into first in Quebec. |
Having a leader who can vault the party to first in Quebec, or anywhere, may not be an overly positive thing. There will be a large more pressure on say Trudeau if he vaults the Liberals to first place, then say a leader who can slowly improve their numbers.
I could see Hsu being an asset in BC, Vancouver in particular, due to his Chinessr origin and him being fluent in Manderin.
Someone who can slowly increase support over several years is likely a better option then being vaulted into first in a matter of days or weeks. |
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Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2012 10:21 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | I think Hsu's background had the potential to appeal to Dippers, Greens and some Conservstives. I don't know what his views are but after having a career in finance I think he'd be credible on economic issues, and if he's not to big of a lefty on economic issues I think he could appeal to some conservatives. His science and sustainable development background would probably work on the lefties. |
As I said above;
If the goal is to compete in 2019 then I think Hsu is a solid option.
However I am not entirely sure if he helps vault the Liberals into first in Quebec. |
Having a leader who can vault the party to first in Quebec, or anywhere, may not be an overly positive thing. There will be a large more pressure on say Trudeau if he vaults the Liberals to first place, then say a leader who can slowly improve their numbers.
I could see Hsu being an asset in BC, Vancouver in particular, due to his Chinessr origin and him being fluent in Manderin.
Someone who can slowly increase support over several years is likely a better option then being vaulted into first in a matter of days or weeks. |
I agree;
Strong growth and sustainable support is the key;
The CPC has only dropped below 30% (in a non-EKOS poll) 3x since January 23, 2006 and 5x if you count whatever it is that Frank Graves does.
That is what the Liberals need to do, strengthen the base and play to the base.
Hsu will be hurt being an unknown commodity basically two years out from an election, but if he has able to grow the LPC and move forward with strong policy ideas maybe even work with the Tories on a thing or two then he could be a very interesting option in 2019. |
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Posted: Wed Jul 25, 2012 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | I think Hsu's background had the potential to appeal to Dippers, Greens and some Conservstives. I don't know what his views are but after having a career in finance I think he'd be credible on economic issues, and if he's not to big of a lefty on economic issues I think he could appeal to some conservatives. His science and sustainable development background would probably work on the lefties. |
As I said above;
If the goal is to compete in 2019 then I think Hsu is a solid option.
However I am not entirely sure if he helps vault the Liberals into first in Quebec. |
Having a leader who can vault the party to first in Quebec, or anywhere, may not be an overly positive thing. There will be a large more pressure on say Trudeau if he vaults the Liberals to first place, then say a leader who can slowly improve their numbers.
I could see Hsu being an asset in BC, Vancouver in particular, due to his Chinessr origin and him being fluent in Manderin.
Someone who can slowly increase support over several years is likely a better option then being vaulted into first in a matter of days or weeks. |
I agree;
Strong growth and sustainable support is the key;
The CPC has only dropped below 30% (in a non-EKOS poll) 3x since January 23, 2006 and 5x if you count whatever it is that Frank Graves does.
That is what the Liberals need to do, strengthen the base and play to the base.
Hsu will be hurt being an unknown commodity basically two years out from an election, but if he has able to grow the LPC and move forward with strong policy ideas maybe even work with the Tories on a thing or two then he could be a very interesting option in 2019. |
He has ruled it out though.
Harper was also an unknown when he took over the CA, and even the CPC really, he didn't have much experience and wasn't well liked. He grew into the job and while many don't actually like him personally they respect a lot of what he has done. The Liberals should learn from that.
I really want to see what this David Mermer is all about. |
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beaver
Joined: 09 Oct 2008
Posts: 231
     
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Posted: Thu Jul 26, 2012 3:49 am Post subject: |
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| Progressive Tory wrote: | "Trudeau" is the only reason why Justin Trudeau is where he is obviously. My point is though that I don't think he's had the opportunity to show that he can be a leader. He's only been an MP so it's not like he can promote his own policy ideas. He hasn't had the opportunity to be a minister so we don't know how he'd perform in a role like that.
Jason Kenney is seen as someone who cold replace Stephen Harper, why? He has a philosophy degree or something and dropped out before completing his second degree. He then worked for Ralph Goodale and I think the Canadian Tax Pay Federation. The only reason he's seen as the heir appearant is because he's a strong minister. He's not a strong minister because he has a ton of education or experience outside politics.
I have my doubts about Trudeau's abilities to lead a party or be Prime Minister, but how many Liberals look like leaders? How many backbench Conservative MPs look like possible successors to Harper? I think he needs an opportunity to perform before being critisized. |
Because we expect an attitude of responsibility, reason, and character in a potential leader. Justin Trudeau hasn't demonstrated that even as backbench MP, saying foolish things like he'd support a separate Quebec if the rest of Canada supported Harper's agenda, participating in a distasteful Vikileaks campaign, and publicly calling a Minister a "piece of s***" right inside the House of Commons, where our laws are made.
These are not attributes of a leader of vision; they are attributes of immaturity and childishness.
As you know, the world is going through turbulent times. We need a steady Prime Minister at helm and while I hate to be cliche, we need a leader who can answer that 2:00 am call. Trudeau does not seem like that type of leader. |
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