| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
|
 Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 9:17 am Post subject: |
 |
|
| Progressive Tory wrote: |
Wonder how Bob Rae is going to face now that the party's support has collapsed to their election numbers again? |
I love politics and I love talking strategy for any and all mainstream parties, however in the case of the Liberals, I really have no idea where they go from here.
Bob Rae will win not because he is the best man for the job, but simply because as terrible of an option as he may be he is the only guy (outside of McGunity) who I think can be elected in June 2013 and be ready for an election by October 2014.
The convention and race has been stacked against most outsiders being able to run for leadership because of the late timeline of the race, I cannot think of a time in modern history where a party which had party status in the Common's remained leaderless for more then two years.
Rae dictated to the Executive that he would only take the interim job if it lasted two years, and in those two years he has lead the party to polling numbers that equal or are lower to the worst defeat in the history of the party.
However due to the timeline and lack of any candidate who I think would have the gusto to pay off their leadership debt and be able to out fundraise in a year what the NDP has had four to do I just don't see a non-Bob Rae option.
Bob Rae's record in a year as leader has been terrible; and what just gets me is that he still wants to run for leadership?
If the Executive had any stones they would pull in the convention during their meeting in June and set it for March 3rd 2013 and get it done as quickly as possible and do anything in their power to attract someone who an beat Rae. |
|
|
|
 |
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 9:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
I don't see how Bob Rae is anymore ready then basically anybody else. As interim leader he was tasked with rebuilding the Liberal Party and he has not done that.
What the party desperately needs is a leader who can pull votes from Harper from the centre/centre-right, which I highly highly doubt Rae is capable of doing. Rae could have likely destroyed the NDP had he become leader in 2006, because many NDP supporters would have likely seen him as their only chance of getting a Dipper in government, they won't feel that way anymore though. If they attracted some votes from Harper then they could likely start attracting former Liberals who have moved to the NDP as well.
One person who I think seems very organizationally smart is Denis Coderre, but he doesn't seem to be well liked in the party or have much of a personality. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 9:42 am Post subject: |
|
|
Because Bob Rae will be able to sell out 1100 dollar a plate dinners amongst champagne socialist in Toronto every Friday and Saturday night till election day :)
Rae for all his flaws seems to have no issue raising money for leadership, which I would imagine would translate in some degree to fundraising for the election. I don't see anyone on the horizon who can appeal to money the way that Rae does.
You raise an interesting point;
Where can Liberal support come from?
It really raises a pretty simple question, what support is softest?
The NDP in Toronto
The NDP in Northern Ontario
The CPC in Rural Ontario
The CPC in Suburban Toronto
The CPC in the 905 Belt
The NDP in Montreal
The NDP in Quebec City
The NDP in the balance of Quebec
The CPC in the West
The NDP in BC
I think the most alienated voters today would be the NDP voters in BC, the NDP voters in Northern Ontario, the CPC voters in Suburban Toronto.
The balance become a little tricky. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:06 am Post subject: |
|
|
David McGuinty would post an interesting threat to Rae in Ontario though. One article I read said he'd have the support of the Ontario Liberal machine.
$1,100 a plate dinner with the McGuinty brothers? Actually that's now $1,200 since January 1. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:15 am Post subject: |
|
|
| cosmostein wrote: |
It really raises a pretty simple question, what support is softest?
The NDP in Toronto
The NDP in Northern Ontario
The CPC in Rural Ontario
The CPC in Suburban Toronto
The CPC in the 905 Belt
The NDP in Montreal
The NDP in Quebec City
The NDP in the balance of Quebec
The CPC in the West
The NDP in BC
I think the most alienated voters today would be the NDP voters in BC, the NDP voters in Northern Ontario, the CPC voters in Suburban Toronto.
The balance become a little tricky. |
While there may not be a large number of seats in Atlantic Canada the Liberals have the potential to win back many from the Conservatives, particularly in rural areas due to the EI changes. Jean Charest was able to boost the PCs back to Official Party status due to dissatisfied Liberals in Atlantic Canada, or rather dissatisfied PCers who voted Liberal in 1993. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:24 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Progressive Tory wrote: | David McGuinty would post an interesting threat to Rae in Ontario though. One article I read said he'd have the support of the Ontario Liberal machine.
$1,100 a plate dinner with the McGuinty brothers? Actually that's now $1,200 since January 1. |
Its an interesting idea;
However why not just cut out the middle man and get Dalton to run? |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:27 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: |
It really raises a pretty simple question, what support is softest?
The NDP in Toronto
The NDP in Northern Ontario
The CPC in Rural Ontario
The CPC in Suburban Toronto
The CPC in the 905 Belt
The NDP in Montreal
The NDP in Quebec City
The NDP in the balance of Quebec
The CPC in the West
The NDP in BC
I think the most alienated voters today would be the NDP voters in BC, the NDP voters in Northern Ontario, the CPC voters in Suburban Toronto.
The balance become a little tricky. |
While there may not be a large number of seats in Atlantic Canada the Liberals have the potential to win back many from the Conservatives, particularly in rural areas due to the EI changes. Jean Charest was able to boost the PCs back to Official Party status due to dissatisfied Liberals in Atlantic Canada, or rather dissatisfied PCers who voted Liberal in 1993. |
I would say that Atlantic Canada is already the Liberal Power base;
As 12 of their seats came from that region.
The question really becomes what's the LPC goal in 2015?
Is it to govern or is it to have sway in a minority government or is it to be the official opposition in a majority government?
I think Atlantic Canada may be an interesting target, however they need to get their hands around a big piece of Quebec, Ontario or Western Canada if they really want to turn these losses around. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:32 am Post subject: |
|
|
| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | David McGuinty would post an interesting threat to Rae in Ontario though. One article I read said he'd have the support of the Ontario Liberal machine.
$1,100 a plate dinner with the McGuinty brothers? Actually that's now $1,200 since January 1. |
Its an interesting idea;
However why not just cut out the middle man and get Dalton to run? |
I guess David has a cleaner record, though obviously his brother's screw ups will be his too.
Dalton is trying to get a majority government so maybe he's considering it? |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: | | cosmostein wrote: |
It really raises a pretty simple question, what support is softest?
The NDP in Toronto
The NDP in Northern Ontario
The CPC in Rural Ontario
The CPC in Suburban Toronto
The CPC in the 905 Belt
The NDP in Montreal
The NDP in Quebec City
The NDP in the balance of Quebec
The CPC in the West
The NDP in BC
I think the most alienated voters today would be the NDP voters in BC, the NDP voters in Northern Ontario, the CPC voters in Suburban Toronto.
The balance become a little tricky. |
While there may not be a large number of seats in Atlantic Canada the Liberals have the potential to win back many from the Conservatives, particularly in rural areas due to the EI changes. Jean Charest was able to boost the PCs back to Official Party status due to dissatisfied Liberals in Atlantic Canada, or rather dissatisfied PCers who voted Liberal in 1993. |
I would say that Atlantic Canada is already the Liberal Power base;
As 12 of their seats came from that region.
The question really becomes what's the LPC goal in 2015?
Is it to govern or is it to have sway in a minority government or is it to be the official opposition in a majority government?
I think Atlantic Canada may be an interesting target, however they need to get their hands around a big piece of Quebec, Ontario or Western Canada if they really want to turn these losses around. |
The largest chunk of their caucus comes from Atlantic Canada, but they still only have 1 of the 10 seats in New Brunswick.
If they can fend off the NDP in Atlantic Canada they might be able to well there, as you said there's obviously not enough seats to make a huge difference though.
I wonder when this race will finally kickoff? I think candidates need to come forth before we think of their potential strategies for growth.
According to a comment left on a blog post that CalgaryGrit did a few weeks ago Line Beauchamp was supposedly considering a bid for the leadership. If that's in fact true how would the student's strike and her resignation have affected her? |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Progressive Tory wrote: |
I guess David has a cleaner record, though obviously his brother's screw ups will be his too.
Dalton is trying to get a majority government so maybe he's considering it? |
Exactly;
David or Dalton still results in the same Dalton attacks, the question becomes a matter of who do you think can better navigate those waters? My opinion is Dalton.
I think McGunity has to consider it either way, even if he wins Waterloo him stepping down loses the OLP the majority again anyway.
He is best to declare before the Christmas break, have a quick leadership convention that Duncan will likely win on the first ballot and go hard after the leadership. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 10:46 am Post subject: |
|
|
| cosmostein wrote: | | Progressive Tory wrote: |
I guess David has a cleaner record, though obviously his brother's screw ups will be his too.
Dalton is trying to get a majority government so maybe he's considering it? |
Exactly;
David or Dalton still results in the same Dalton attacks, the question becomes a matter of who do you think can better navigate those waters? My opinion is Dalton.
I think McGunity has to consider it either way, even if he wins Waterloo him stepping down loses the OLP the majority again anyway.
He is best to declare before the Christmas break, have a quick leadership convention that Duncan will likely win on the first ballot and go hard after the leadership. |
He's supposedly trying to get others in opposition to resign. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 11:30 am Post subject: |
|
|
As I have said for months;
The guy is a politician through and through.
He has the means and the influence to offer the opposition MPP's plum jobs to secure his majority, hence Witmer and the WSIB.
The LPC needs guile, and McGunity has it in spades. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Tue May 29, 2012 3:45 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| cosmostein wrote: | As I have said for months;
The guy is a politician through and through.
He has the means and the influence to offer the opposition MPP's plum jobs to secure his majority, hence Witmer and the WSIB.
The LPC needs guile, and McGunity has it in spades. |
Liberals could do worse, at least he's not a total lefty. |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Wed May 30, 2012 9:22 am Post subject: |
|
|
Jean Marc Fournier is mentioned in this article as someone who Liberals are interested in for the leadership.
As well as Scott Brison for interim leader, which I think probably makes the most sense.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....le2447233/ |
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Thu May 31, 2012 9:03 am Post subject: |
|
|
I have been thinking on this for a few days;
The Liberals need to target Quebec.
Historically the Liberals have formed every majority against a unified right with a majority of seats in Quebec.
Large parts of Ontario are now rapidly becoming bedrock Tory ridings, and the West has been unfriendly to the Liberals well before NEP.
The NDP has slayed the BQ, something the Tories and Liberals had been unable to do in six prior elections, and based on the visceral attacks Mulcair has made on Western Canada for the sake of putting on a show for the Quebec voters I am led to believe that their internal polling shows their support in Quebec has the potential to soften.
The Liberals will not beat the Tories out West, and assuming all breaks for them in Ontario they secure their 416 and 905 fortress again but little beyond that.
Quebec is still wild frontier, very little incumbent loyalty or recognition and Ontario has proven in the past they would vote for a francophone, you walk out of an election with a bulk of Quebec seats and a good chunk of urban and suburban Ontario and you are in good shape. Heck even 30 seats in Quebec would be a coup. |
|
|
|
|
|
