[RCO]

( mcguinty may get his majority if Hudak is not able to hold the seat , surpising move move to come i'm sure , no word on who plans to try and fill her seat )

MPP appointment gives Grits shot a majority

2:28 pm, April 27th, 2012


Ontario PC MPP Liz Whitmer

Credits: File photo


JONATHAN JENKINS and ANTONELLA ARTUSO | QMI AGENCY


TORONTO - The Liberal government has scored a huge coup, snagging respected Progressive Conservative veteran Elizabeth Witmer to serve as the new chairman of the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board.

"Elizabeth Witmer is exceptionally qualified to be the chair of the WSIB," Premier Dalton McGuinty said in a new release.

"Elizabeth will bring strong leadership to the WSIB board as they work to eliminate the unfunded liability while helping injured workers and reducing red tape for businesses."

The move will have profound implications for the minority Liberals, who can breathe easier in the legislature as Witmer will step down as MPP for Kitchener-Waterloo.

It is also a blow to PC Leader Tim Hudak, who loses one of his best known and respected front-benchers, a former deputy premier, powerful health and education minister under Mike Harris, and a moderate voice in caucus.

"This has been an extremely difficult decision to make but I believe it is the right decision for me at this juncture in my life and career," Witmer said in a release.

An MPP for 32 years, Witmer also served as labour minister.

The 65-year-old is an avid ABBA fan and famously drove back to her riding each night from Queen's Park to spend more time with her family.

Because Witmer is stepping down as MPP, a byelection must be called. Should the Tories be unable to hold her seat, the Liberals could regain majority control of the legislature.

http://www.sunnewsnetwork.ca/s.....42854.html

[RCO]

MPP Elizabeth Witmer leaves Tories for WSIB post

Published On Fri Apr 27 2012Email


Premier Dalton McGuinty nominated Elizabeth Witmer as the new chair of the Workplace Safety Insurance Board.
Peter Lee/Waterloo Region Record file photo


Robert Benzie and Rob FergusonQueen’s Park Bureau






A political bombshell at Queen’s Park has inched Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals closer to a majority government and left Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives weakened by the loss of a key MPP.

Political veteran Elizabeth Witmer — a former deputy leader who is highly regarded across party lines at the legislature — stepped down Friday when McGuinty nominated her as the new chair of the Workplace Safety Insurance Board.

“Elizabeth Witmer is exceptionally qualified,” McGuinty said in a statement.

The surprise appointment leaves the Liberals at 52 seats — excluding Speaker Dave Levac — versus a combined 53 for the Progressive Conservatives and NDP, with Witmer’s Kitchener-Waterloo seat vacant until a byelection is held within the next six months.

Sources said McGuinty favours a “snap” byelection as the Liberal have a number of candidates lined up in hopes of catching rival parties flat-footed.

Regardless of whether the Liberals can win her riding and tread further into majority territory, the unexpected departure of a stalwart is a blow to Hudak.

He is facing dissent in the ranks over his strategy to not negotiate with the Liberals on the recent provincial budget, ceding the spotlight to New Democrat Leader Andrea Horwath and her “tax-the-rich” plan.

Witmer, 65, a “red” Tory from the progressive wing of the party, had recently experienced difficulty getting fellow Tory MPPs to embrace gay-straight alliances as the legislature battles over anti-bullying legislation.

First elected to Queen’s Park in 1990 when the Tories placed third as the New Democrats came to power under Bob Rae, Witmer later served as labour, environment, education and health minister under premiers Mike Harris and Ernie Eves from 1995 to 2003.

Known for her crisis management skills and an ability to deflect criticism with a calm demeanor under pressure, Witmer was given the environment post after the Walkerton water tragedy that left seven dead.

Witmer, 65, is a former high school teacher born in The Netherlands. She was a trustee and chair of the Waterloo County Board of Education before entering provincial politics.

She ran for the party leadership in 2002 when Harris quit but finished fourth behind Ernie Eves, who took the helm of the party and lost the 2003 election to Premier Dalton McGuinty.

In the 2004 leadership race to replace Eves, Witmer backed the eventual winner, John Tory. She supported current deputy party leader and Whitby—Oshawa MPP Christine Elliott in the 2009 leadership contest won by Hudak.

Her appointment will prompt a byelection in Kitchener—Waterloo, part of fast-growing urban area where the Liberals lost an adjoining seat to the Conservatives in last fall’s vote.

A veteran Liberal said Kitchener—Waterloo is “very much a Witmer riding” but could be won back by the Grits.

“Remember, it was ours before with Herb Epp and the demographics are right,” the insider said.

Epp held the riding for 13 years before retiring from the legislature in 1990, when Witmer took the seat.

She won the riding with 43.7 per cent of the vote last October 6 as 21,665 supporters cast ballots for her. Placing second was Liberal Eric Davis with 36 per cent of the vote and 17,837 ballots — 3,828 votes behind. The NDP was a distant third.

However, Witmer’s son Scott, a Waterloo city councillor, is widely believed to have an interest in running for the seat to keep it in the family.

Witmer, the longest serving female MPP at Queen’s Park, is well-regarded by Liberals and Conservatives and her new role will be an easy sell for the government.

“This also gives us some political cover,” confided a Liberal, noting it could make patronage appointments more palatable.

But the biggest aspect to what another Liberal dubbed a “coup” was that it undermines Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak.

“Hudak’s caucus is unhappy, they feel left out — anyone can see that. Watch their body language in the house,” said the second Grit.

“Now, he’s losing his most prominent Red Tory, a proven commodity as a cabinet minister and a former leadership contender,” he said.

The Liberals have tried to woo Witmer off of the Tory benches for months.

After the Oct. 6 election — which resulted in 53 Liberals, 37 Tories, and 17 New Democrats in the 107-member minority legislature — the Liberals quietly asked her to run for speaker.

That would have left a 53-53 Liberal-opposition split, a de facto majority government.

But Witmer politely declined and alerted Hudak’s office immediately.

In the end Liberal MPP Dave Levac was elected speaker, meaning the Liberals have 52 in the house and the opposition 54.

http://www.thestar.com/news/ca.....-post?bn=1

[cosmostein]

She is 65 and as been an MPP since 1990
I don't fault her.

As for the riding, the Liberals would need a total and utter rockstar in order to secure Kitchener-Waterloo with their current fate in the polling and their lack of popularity in Midwestern Ontario where the Tories secure 8 of 11 seats in October.

The three ridings the Liberals retained were mostly close races, as Brant and Kitchener Centre were retained by about a 1000 and 300 votes respectively.

Unless the Liberals can secure Brenda Halloran (who's political affiliation I am unsure of) its going to be a tough road.

[Pissedoff]

Problem is, is how long the gap between her stepping down and McLiar calling the by election? Think of what he can achieve in the meantime, and isn't there another and final vote to come on the budget?

[cosmostein]

[Pissedoff]

Did anyone expect anything else?


Preem in no rush to call K-W byelection

BY JONATHAN JENKINS ,QUEEN'S PARK BUREAU
FIRST POSTED: TUESDAY, MAY 01, 2012 11:44 AM EDT | UPDATED: TUESDAY, MAY 01, 2012 03:40 PM EDT

http://www.ottawasun.com/2012/.....byelection

[RCO]

don't really think the by-election is a sure thing for any of the parties .

liberals - some realities must be considered , they haven't won any by-elections in ridings previously held by pc's or ndp since 2003 when they came to power , governments also don't do well in by-elections generally . the federal liberals have also had some weird obsession with this riding , they though for sure it come back liberals after the extremly close loss in 2008 but it didn't in 2011 . during a summer by-election there may also be very few students at wilfrid laurier and waterloo univerisities a likely loss of votes for parties on the left . most of the students won't be back till september 4 months away .

pc's - riding likely would of gone liberal last few elections if not for elizabeth witmer running , however it would of went pc regardless in 95 and 99 . so its an area they can win , they also hold most of the ridings nearby although there alot more rural . the federal party also won it the last 2 elections but by small margins . they really need a good candidate to hold the seat . and hope the vote splits on the left or voters aren't in riding like lefty students during the summer . a by-election in next 4 months mostly be decided by homeowners so they might have a good chance of keeping it. however i suspect liberals try and find a star candidate to take the riding , who will be promised the world just to run


ndp - might also give riding a try , came in 3rd 2011 but had a strong 3rd place finish in 2007 as well , got 17% of the vote that year . however they have no chance at all if students aren't in the riding during the vote . it be interesting to see what they do

[Progressive Tory]

Should Hudak resign if McGuinty gets his majority?

[cosmostein]

[Progressive Tory]

[RCO]

( hudak may be in trouble however , no actual candidates have been announced in the riding ,the liberal numbers seem high considering they are polling much lower once out of the GTA ridings . i also forgot to mention in previous post the liberals did steal one seat from the pc's the " john tory " by-election in haliburton kawartha lakes however it easily returned to the ontario pc's last fall )


Poll: Liberals have shot at long-held Tory seat in byelection

Published On Thu May 3 2012Email

Comments (6)




Robert BenzieQueen’s Park Bureau Chief


Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals appear to have a strong chance of winning the Kitchener—Waterloo byelection, taking a long-held Progressive Conservative seat to regain a de facto majority, according to a new poll.

Liberals have a seven-point lead in the Elizabeth Witmer’s former riding, which became vacant with her surprise resignation Friday after she accepted an appointment as chair of the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board.

The Liberals are at 39 per cent, the Tories 32 per cent, the New Democrats 20 per cent, and the Greens 7 per cent, said Forum Research, on the basis of a 415-person telephone interactive poll conducted Monday and Tuesday.

“This is the ideal riding for the Liberals. It’s going to be tough for the Tories to retain this,” Forum president Lorne Bozinoff said Wednesday.

The constituency includes the campuses of both the University of Waterloo and Wilfrid Laurier University, along with the headquarters of Research in Motion and several large insurance companies.

Bozinoff said Kitchener—Waterloo is a politically engaged constituency —83 per cent of respondents were aware that Witmer, the MPP since 1990, had resigned to become take the post at WSIB.

“This is an urban riding and how many urban ridings are there in the Tory fold? Not very many. It’s just not a natural battleground for them,” he said.

“It’s the ideal scenario for the Liberals — if they wanted any one riding to become vacant this is kind of it.”

Bozinoff noted that Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Hudak, who was campaigning in Kitchener—Waterloo early Wednesday, appears to be a drag on his party.

The poll found NDP Leader Andrea Horwath at 47 per cent approval, McGuinty at 34 per cent and 19 per cent for the Tory chief.

The Forum Research poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In the Oct. 6 election, the Witmer won 43.8 per cent of the votes to 36 per cent for the Liberals, 16.7 per cent for the NDP and 2.6 per cent for the Greens.

While McGuinty has until Oct. 26 to call the byelection, he will be campaigning in the riding on Thursday morning, which suggests a call sooner rather than later.

As for Horwath, she said she will be a visible presence during the byelection.

“I’m excited about giving the people of Kitchener—Waterloo a real chance to change the way that they think about what kind of person represents them.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/ca.....byelection

[cosmostein]

[RCO]

Scott Stinson: Dalton McGuinty’s next battleground
Scott Stinson May 4, 2012 – 1:49 AM ET | Last Updated: May 4, 2012 1:57 AM ET


Aaron Lynett / National Post files

“This is more than just choosing a representative for the riding,” he said. “It’s making a determination about a form of the government that we all look to here in Ontario, and that’s an important decision,” Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty said Thursday.


Right here in the Big Book of Political Clichés, it says that a riding that is typically closely fought is to be referred to as a “battleground.” Failing that, a “bellwether.” When a party holds a seat through two or three elections, it must be called a “safe” seat. And, for a riding like Kitchener-Waterloo, which has gone to the provincial Progressive Conservatives for five consecutive elections, or since Bob Rae was the NDP premier of the province, we call it a “stronghold.” Perhaps a “bastion.”


But, for the midwestern Ontario riding vacated last week by Elizabeth Witmer, who has held it since 1990, it appears to be a short distance from stronghold to battleground.

Related
Ontario Liberals could return to majority government after Tory resignation

Scott Stinson: Witmer resignation throws wrench in Tim Hudak’s ‘sideline’ strategy

Scott Stinson: McGuinty folds on tax on the rich

“You could say it’s a typically Toronto riding,” says Brian Tanguay, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University, one of three post-secondary education institutions that sit within the riding’s borders. It’s urban, affluent, white-collar, and well-educated — demographics often associated with downtown Toronto, and with the McGuinty Liberals.

‘The Liberals have come really close here before’
Ms. Witmer, meanwhile, was well-liked in the riding. She was an education trustee before entering provincial politics, and during her two decades at Queen’s Park, Prof. Tanguay says, “she had a reputation of being competent and a person of integrity.” Political scientists, he says, “tend to downplay the significance of the individual as a candidate, but in her case she really did have a powerful personal appeal.”

Absent Ms. Witmer, then, the riding is thought to be up for grabs, an impression reinforced on Thursday with the release of a Forum Research poll that put the Liberals seven points up on the Progressive Conservatives in Kitchener-Waterloo — although none of the parties have yet to nominate a candidate.

And it is why, even though Dalton McGuinty has said in recent days he is in no hurry to call a byelection that does not have to be held until October, the minority Liberals see the upcoming vote as a chance to regain a one-seat edge over the opposition at the Ontario legislature, including the tie-breaking vote of the Speaker.

During a visit to the riding Thursday, Mr. McGuinty acknowledged the stakes.

“This is more than just choosing a representative for the riding,” he said. “It’s making a determination about a form of the government that we all look to here in Ontario, and that’s an important decision.”

Past results certainly suggest the opportunity is there for the Liberals. Ms. Witmer defeated Liberal candidate Eric Davis by about seven percentage points last fall, she won by nine points in 2007 and her victory in 2003 was only a three-point gap. Moreover, Liberals held the riding provincially through six elections, beginning in 1967 and ending with Ms. Witmer’s first win.

“The Liberals have come really close here before,” Prof. Tanguay says.

“They were nipping at Liz’s heels through all that time. She was winning, but it was by no means an avalanche. So, yes, I think the Liberals would really be looking at this as a prime opportunity to get a majority.”

Federally, there are further signs the electors of Kitchener-Waterloo are not particularly Liberal-averse. Conservative Peter Braid defeated Liberal Andrew Telegdi by three percentage points in last spring’s election. Mr. Braid also won the 2008 vote, but the gap was less than a percentage point — 17 votes out of more than 60,000 cast in the riding. Mr. Telegdi had taken the riding easily for the federal Liberals in 2004 and 2006.

The close races between Liberals and Conservatives, both federally and provincially, can largely be explained by demographics. Census data shows Kitchener-Waterloo residents with both higher incomes and higher education levels than the Ontario average. Once a big hub for the insurance business, with several major offices that still remain, Waterloo has also become a technology centre, most famously as the headquarters of the once-mighty Research in Motion.

‘Waterloo prides itself on having been named one of the smartest cities in Canada’
“Waterloo prides itself on having been named one of the smartest cities in Canada,” says Prof. Tanguay, referring to an annual survey that assesses communities based on factors from literacy to Internet access. Asked if Mr. McGuinty has faced any of the blowback over rural issues in Kitchener-Waterloo that left the Liberals as also-rans in nearby ridings such as Oxford or Haldimand-Norfolk, Prof. Tanguay says those concerns — windmills, horse racing — aren’t felt in Ms. Witmer’s old riding.

“This is almost purely urban,” he says.

One of the few such ridings not presently held by the Liberals, in fact, which was no doubt a happy coincidence for party strategists when they found out Ms. Witmer was stepping aside.

“It would be surprising to see the NDP take it,” says Prof. Tanguay of the next vote, whenever it happens. “But as far as the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives go, it looks like it’s a dead heat.”

That’s in the book, too, right after battleground.

http://fullcomment.nationalpos.....-majority/

[cosmostein]

Its also a riding the CPC won in 2008 and won again in 2011 with an increase of over 5000 votes.

The problem with polling within this riding is that you poll residents, but not necessarily electorate.

Most University and College students vote in their home ridings, not the riding they are going to school in, and even if they did voter turn out amongst that demographic is always embarrassing.

This riding is above average in terms of income, below average in terms of unemployment, and has a 23% Immigration rate which is above the national average.

This will be an interesting race, however I still contend the Liberals will need a rockstar in order to win it.

[RCO]

i think if the liberals though it was a slam dunk for them they would of allready called it , something tells me that its not . the ontario pc's have also been calling supporters in other areas of province asking for money for this by-election as i remember we got a call a week or so ago .
but still no word on any candidates yet unless i missed the articles .